It will not just end badly for Microsoft but for many of our best companies. Global trade war is a blight on all, but will be felt hardest by those initiating it. That said, there are a few companies that will survive the downturn better than most. I leave the reader to figure them out. Generally they are the leader in their field or have technology or know how that is not easily replaced.

Russia in the future is not the problem nor is gold hoarding. A trade war will cause horrific damage to the US economy and cause inflation. There needs no gold hoarding initiator. The enemy to a country that blocks global trade is always the country that is initiating it, and it always causes it to loose competitiveness, face, and power globally.

The use it or loose it stance is absurd. Penalties for holding cash are by their nature anti-capitalistic and disruptive to a free and fair market. Inevitably they harm the whole system. If they want companies to invest they must enable the creation of opportunities for growth that present a fair and legitimate avenue for growth. Then they need not force investment. Companies will invest willingly.

Rates are not the whole picture. Japanese Yen prices could drop 20% and they still could face a weak economy. Japan faces the same issues all very developed nations must face. They need to advance in order to grow.

Goldman Sach's in political power has pretty much always benefited Goldman Sacs as it has on the Federal Reserve. I wouldn't worry about the brain drain. Trump's move to embrace what he vilified as being dirty is very much fitting right into the Washington political crowd. Sadly, It is to be expected.

Look at Vancouver Canada as an example. Mass foreign money going into buying up property and not much else is making life miserable for many living there even if it is now on the street. Be careful what one wishes for.

There seems to be a lot of gambling and assumptions being made that may or not play out. Regardless, things will change next year and the market will have to adjust. Strangely, although people credit Trump for the recent market bump, in reality it is a standing legacy for Obama and may be a good part due to people trying to get the last good bite of the Obama market apple before it changes drastically.

I think it is a little of both with both sides thinking a bit too positively for now. We will see if the good feeling proceed after the mid of next year. Then it will be Trump's legacy.

The strong dollar is more a result of a weak global economy than robust US economic growth. Also there is worry that the breakdown of global trade is a real threat and hording dollars is seen as a safety play, or at least a way to increase your negotiating leverage later, for now.

I agree on this point.

Smart move sort of. #Bonds are bad in rising rates and #inflation. Strangely, stocks are even worse if this gets worse. In the meantime though, stocks look a bit better if things rates and inflation don't get worse, especially commodity related stocks.

The interesting thing to see is techs and high growth stocks not doing so well. This is usually a bearish sign on growth. The market is quite strange recently and not clear on real growth going forward, only very firm on a belief of rising rates.