It makes sense to unwind the balance sheet before many rate hikes go into place, however, it will dampen the economy. The good thing about unwinding though it gives the Federal Reserve more room to deal with the inevitable end of a cycle as does raising rates. Given that a downturn isn't on the immediate horizon and they are already late raising rates and cutting the balance sheet sooner is better as long as its not so severe as to cause a dramatic and immediate downturn.

I expect #Trump to be as soft on banks as Hillary given his newfound ties with Goldman and his lack of care about his campaign promises to be tough on them including his reversal in reinstating Glass-Stegall which is America's best hope of preventing a downturn like the last one.

Sadly lots of home loans are still on flexible rates and as they rise it will impact not only new home sales but will impact existing homes. Whether or not it will cause a collapse like the last housing downturn is more about growth or no growth in the economy. Rising rates also hurts this.

Generally agree with this perception. I don't see a major collapse happening in the near term, however, if the Federal Reserve is forced to raise rates due to inflation and if the market sags then we are looking at something much worse where an imminent downturn is likely.

Don't call it a #Trump rally. It is not and until he takes office no bounce is his doing. We shall see what happens the week after next and on. I feel the politicization of stock market reporting is tragically deceiving a lot of people. As we can see with these charts the movement is not that unusual and is a continuation of the recent rally before Trump.

Enjoy it before rates go up, inflation rears its head, and the Fed cuts its support. The result of this will mostly be non Trump related as well, however, he can make it worse by precipitating a global trade war.

The real issue is the market recent rise is based on people cashing in their last chips before #Trump not the hopes of Trump. So far I agree that the International market is in turmoil over him. However, there is some hope of him massively increasing the deficit against Republican fiscal conservatives and rolling back regulations and taxes on business. It is doubtful that this will counter the worsening global market and the Fed who will raise rates in response to higher inflation if Trump starts a trade war.

There are lots of hopes and expectations but also lots of trouble, the main one being the Federal Reserve's unsustainable #bubble.

I don't believe Trump is actually a big factor in the recent run up and certainly not a factor for Christmas and NY spending. The constant promises about the end of a slow recovery and the ushering in of a new growth period are less innocence and more blatant lies. The only real way to get rapid growth back is to readjust our economy which would hurt painfully first as the economy goes back to small medium sized growth and gets off of the punch being offered by the Federal Reserve which has only led to massive hoarding and artificial wealth creation for the few which would be correctly named as corruption in other more innocent eras.

Very true and insightful. Sadly leaders feel a need to make up excuses rather than address the problem. There will be fewer and fewer jobs, especially manufacturing jobs over time. In reality, if we can make a change it could be a good thing freeing people from drudgery to do more enticing things. Sadly, right now it is freeing people to be poor and unwanted. Obviously this is making social and economic waves and once again blame is being placed on anything that can conveniently be made an excuse. Globally the losses are even worse. It is not just a US phenomenon.

If taken too far we also could experience worse losses. Protectionism historically hurts all involved in the act.

Although I disagree the market is headed down in the short term his concerns are well founded and may come to light a year down the line if the US moves towards mass government deficits, protectionism, and demands that allies pay for protection which will most likely lead to them not paying which will lead to loss in US military sales. Of course the military spending drop can be balanced with domestic spending like on more nukes, but this is exactly what drove the USSR into eventual economic collapse. Government deficit spending is not a long term economic answer.

Inevitably a recession will always eventually work its way out of raw materials and commodities into the broader economy unless resolved before it works its way into the broader economy. So far the US and the rest of the world continue to put on pressure that only exacerbates and prevents the free market from correcting rather than dealing with the free market issues. Big companies are eating small ones faster than small ones are created and grow. Efficiencies are eating jobs and increasingly there are not enough jobs anywhere in the world.