South Korea has restricted the entry of travelers with passports from China’s Hubei Province as well as anyone who has visited that region in the past 14 days. Additionally, Korean visas that were issued to travelers in Hubei are canceled.
Visa-free entry to Jeju Island for all foreigners, as well as visa-free entry for Chinese nationals and travelers who are headed to China, are both suspended.
It can be great for tracking and controlling. But the Koreans have also kept their borders open. They have stated that they will not stay in shutdown mode - even as the virus remains in other countries. I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to open up even if the virus remains. They are managing it all much more effectively than anybody else.
Economies enable human life. How much does it cost to save a kid with cancer? To help somebody recover from addiction? To feed someone? To care for a highly disabled person?
We are used to spending on these things - and that is a beautiful and wonderful thing.
But when we have 30% unemployment where will the resources come from? Already, 10% of Israel's workforce has been laid off.
We can have economic downturns, but we are plotting a course for a downturn on par with the Great Depression - or even greater.
The Imperial College in London has said 18 months of shutdown will be necessary to control the virus. Why? Because you might be able to stay at home but people with no savings, no food in the fridge (if they have one) and no credit won't. This describes about 30% of Americans - but they can get short-term government support. Before long more and more people will fall into that boat. But how about the billions of others in poorer countries. The virus will rip through their societies and it will remain within them because they can't afford to lock down. It will threaten to return to us that entire time. We'll have to maintain the lockdown.
Before long we'll be just like the third world - with 50, 60, 70% of our people out of money and desperate. Can our government feed them and provide decent healthcare then?
Forges and mills will shut down - and they can't be restarted easily or cheaply. Aircraft will be destroyed en-masse (they require maintenance to remain airworthy even if not flying). Our economy will break down. And it won't be able to just magically restart.
Before long the services we can provide to the marginal in our society will vanish.
And their desperation will claim far more lives than the virus will.
Let's make a clear plan. A week or two of isolation to buy us some time and then we get back to life.
We use our economic power to fight back. We ramp *up* our health capacity as quickly as possible.
Because the 1st world can afford to lock down and have the organization to do so while those other countries don't. If you have a choice, now, between going out to try to find food to get by another day or staying at home because the government says so and you might avoid getting ill - what are you going to do? Can the 3.4 billion people who live on less than $5.50 a day afford not to go out? Of course not. So no lockdown will work.
Other countries are more used to hardships. But they will have less wealth in a global economic collapse. They will turn from poverty to starvation.
Of course not. Economies enable human life. How much does it cost to save a kid with cancer? To help somebody recover from addiction? To feed someone? We have over 7 billion people. That is only possible because of our advanced economies. There is a reason poorer countries have shorter life expediencies. We can have economic downturns, but we are plotting a course for a downturn on par with the great depression. And that killed people.
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What Our Leaders Should Be Saying...
Current Korean restrictions (from the NYT):
South Korea has restricted the entry of travelers with passports from China’s Hubei Province as well as anyone who has visited that region in the past 14 days. Additionally, Korean visas that were issued to travelers in Hubei are canceled.
Visa-free entry to Jeju Island for all foreigners, as well as visa-free entry for Chinese nationals and travelers who are headed to China, are both suspended.
What Our Leaders Should Be Saying...
It can be great for tracking and controlling. But the Koreans have also kept their borders open. They have stated that they will not stay in shutdown mode - even as the virus remains in other countries. I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to open up even if the virus remains. They are managing it all much more effectively than anybody else.
South Korea knows what shutdown looks like.
They can see it 20 miles north of Seoul.
I'm A Coronavirus Heretic. Here's Why...
I'm not blaming anybody. I'm blaming the hidden lives cost. We see one thing and we cause losses in other areas. It is a danger of a narrow focus.
What Our Leaders Should Be Saying...
A longer write up I just did based on this...
Economies enable human life. How much does it cost to save a kid with cancer? To help somebody recover from addiction? To feed someone? To care for a highly disabled person?
We are used to spending on these things - and that is a beautiful and wonderful thing.
But when we have 30% unemployment where will the resources come from? Already, 10% of Israel's workforce has been laid off.
We can have economic downturns, but we are plotting a course for a downturn on par with the Great Depression - or even greater.
The Imperial College in London has said 18 months of shutdown will be necessary to control the virus. Why? Because you might be able to stay at home but people with no savings, no food in the fridge (if they have one) and no credit won't. This describes about 30% of Americans - but they can get short-term government support. Before long more and more people will fall into that boat. But how about the billions of others in poorer countries. The virus will rip through their societies and it will remain within them because they can't afford to lock down. It will threaten to return to us that entire time. We'll have to maintain the lockdown.
Before long we'll be just like the third world - with 50, 60, 70% of our people out of money and desperate. Can our government feed them and provide decent healthcare then?
Forges and mills will shut down - and they can't be restarted easily or cheaply. Aircraft will be destroyed en-masse (they require maintenance to remain airworthy even if not flying). Our economy will break down. And it won't be able to just magically restart.
Before long the services we can provide to the marginal in our society will vanish.
And their desperation will claim far more lives than the virus will.
Let's make a clear plan. A week or two of isolation to buy us some time and then we get back to life.
We use our economic power to fight back. We ramp *up* our health capacity as quickly as possible.
We spend freely to support those in need.
People will die.
But there are threats other than corona.
What Our Leaders Should Be Saying...
Because the 1st world can afford to lock down and have the organization to do so while those other countries don't. If you have a choice, now, between going out to try to find food to get by another day or staying at home because the government says so and you might avoid getting ill - what are you going to do? Can the 3.4 billion people who live on less than $5.50 a day afford not to go out? Of course not. So no lockdown will work.
Other countries are more used to hardships. But they will have less wealth in a global economic collapse. They will turn from poverty to starvation.
What Our Leaders Should Be Saying...
Of course not. Economies enable human life. How much does it cost to save a kid with cancer? To help somebody recover from addiction? To feed someone? We have over 7 billion people. That is only possible because of our advanced economies. There is a reason poorer countries have shorter life expediencies. We can have economic downturns, but we are plotting a course for a downturn on par with the great depression. And that killed people.
I'm A Coronavirus Heretic. Here's Why...
I am, basically. i do support selective quarantine. Here are the details/data in a followup video. talkmarkets.com/.../stop-the-corona-insanity-the-data
I'm A Coronavirus Heretic. Here's Why...
www.smithsonianmag.com/.../eastland-disaster-killed-more-passengers-titanic-and-lusitania-why-has-it-been-forgotten-180953146/
I'm A Coronavirus Heretic. Here's Why...
I put more analysis into the numbers in the next post. We have only bad options, but some can still be worse: talkmarkets.com/.../stop-the-corona-insanity-the-data
I'm A Coronavirus Heretic. Here's Why...
We can figure out who's dying. Figuring out who is sick is the hard part.