There are always risks. We continue to learn from the examples around us. The following is a great tool for seeing this. Compare Sweden (very limited social distancing) with much of Europe or the US: ourworldindata.org/.../covid-daily-deaths-trajectory-per-million
I live in Israel, but it is far more of a closed system than most.
@Wendell Brown Could only watch a small part of it, but seems reasonable to me. Sweden is tracking just like other countries (in terms of growth in deaths since reaching 10 deaths/million), with fewer patients in intensive care. Given the consequences of trying to keep everything shut down for months and months, it seems to me the effort to isolate the most vulnerable is a more tenable strategy than the effort to isolate everyone.
I don't know of course. I don't think anybody really knows. My goal was to see contrary voices out there - voices that are influential than my own. This is one of them.
South Sudan has 24 isolation beds and 13 million people. People live in massive slums where nobody has 2 meters of distance. There are cultural challenges to delivering medical aid. There isn't enough help in the world to pull this off. We can only win with a vaccine and that will take time.
It will never work because the second and third world will keep the virus coming back. South America's can't play this game and we can't (or won't) keep them out. Also, I think it strongly overstates deaths because we don't know the extent of infection. Even in italy there is concern they have only identified 1 of 6 cases. We can't stay shut down until there is a vaccine, many many more will die is we do.
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Coronavirus: The Insanity Is Ending
We have to continually thread the needle - struggling to learn how to open up while maximizing the benefits of social distancing.
Coronavirus: The Insanity Is Ending
There are always risks. We continue to learn from the examples around us. The following is a great tool for seeing this. Compare Sweden (very limited social distancing) with much of Europe or the US: ourworldindata.org/.../covid-daily-deaths-trajectory-per-million
I live in Israel, but it is far more of a closed system than most.
Coronavirus: The Insanity Is Ending
@Wendell Brown Could only watch a small part of it, but seems reasonable to me. Sweden is tracking just like other countries (in terms of growth in deaths since reaching 10 deaths/million), with fewer patients in intensive care. Given the consequences of trying to keep everything shut down for months and months, it seems to me the effort to isolate the most vulnerable is a more tenable strategy than the effort to isolate everyone.
I don't know of course. I don't think anybody really knows. My goal was to see contrary voices out there - voices that are influential than my own. This is one of them.
The No Corona Episode
I can't seem to actually reply to your comment.
The No Corona Episode
@Andrew Armstrong WSJ, Jerusalem Post, Telegraph, Forbes, Law.com, Tampa Bay Times.
Coronavirus: The Insanity Is Ending
I wish he sounded more realistic.less wishful thinking and more realism.
Coronavirus: The Insanity Is Ending
People in Venezuela do and Brazil and Mexico and El Salvador...
Coronavirus: The Insanity Is Ending
South Sudan has 24 isolation beds and 13 million people. People live in massive slums where nobody has 2 meters of distance. There are cultural challenges to delivering medical aid. There isn't enough help in the world to pull this off. We can only win with a vaccine and that will take time.
Coronavirus: The Insanity Is Ending
It will never work because the second and third world will keep the virus coming back. South America's can't play this game and we can't (or won't) keep them out. Also, I think it strongly overstates deaths because we don't know the extent of infection. Even in italy there is concern they have only identified 1 of 6 cases. We can't stay shut down until there is a vaccine, many many more will die is we do.
Coronavirus: The Insanity Is Ending
Too long a timeline