E Coronavirus: The Insanity Is Ending

My heresy is beginning to spread. In the New York Times we have Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease? and in the WSJ we see The California and New York orders to stay at home are unsustainable.

More and more voices have realized the call for an indefinite shutdown is a call to self-destruction. Corona got out. It spreads asymptomatically. It is in the third world.

It is here to stay, even if the first world breaks itself trying to control it. 

But all is not lost. We are learning it isn't as dangerous as it first seemed. South Korean testing has shown vast numbers of people with more minor symptoms or none at all. We are learning how to treat it, the serious case rate in South Korea is now 1%. And we are learning how to muster resources for a surge. Conversion of hotels into facilities for the less sick comes to mind.

We are making our way towards a new reality - where people work and live and where corona is added to the list of ailments we battle. Of course, we don't battle it with fixed resources, we battle it with human innovation. For example:

researchers in France treated a small number of patients with both hydroxychloroquine and a Z-Pak, and 100% of them were cured by day six of treatment. Compare that with 57.1% of patients treated with hydroxychloroquine alone, and 12.5% of patients who received neither."

The virus is dangerous. It will strike certain groups like the religious community very very hard (e.g.the Hasidic communities in New York are experiencing high infection rates). But we are learning to moderate our response just as we learn to control it. My hope is that we will get back to life soon. 

Let's lay out a plan: three weeks to get everything we can ready, and then begin to open up.

With three weeks, business and people alike can plan instead of living in the fear of complete and overwhelming uncertainty.

As the mantle has now passed beyond crazy gadflies like me to mainstream voices like the NYT and WSJ, I wanted to take the next step. I wanted to do the first postmortem on the situation - and analyze what we can learn from the early history of corona. Is it too early? Probably, but there are still lessons.

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Comments

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Wendell Brown 2 hours ago Member's comment

What's your take on this experts' opinion? Is he right?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg

Bill Myers 1 week ago Member's comment

Good video.

Adam Reynolds 1 week ago Member's comment
Joseph Cox 1 week ago Author's comment

It will never work because the second and third world will keep the virus coming back. South America's can't play this game and we can't (or won't) keep them out. Also, I think it strongly overstates deaths because we don't know the extent of infection. Even in italy there is concern they have only identified 1 of 6 cases. We can't stay shut down until there is a vaccine, many many more will die is we do.

Adam Reynolds 1 week ago Member's comment

Why an't other countries do the same? Or once we've beaten the virus, we could keep our borders closed while sending aid to help other countries win as well. Or maybe by then there will be a vaccine.

Joseph Cox 1 week ago Author's comment

South Sudan has 24 isolation beds and 13 million people. People live in massive slums where nobody has 2 meters of distance. There are cultural challenges to delivering medical aid. There isn't enough help in the world to pull this off. We can only win with a vaccine and that will take time.

Adam Reynolds 1 week ago Member's comment

Not to sound callous, but people in South Sudan don't have the money to come to the US to spread the disease. Seems to me that it would just spread there very quickly and everyone will either die, or recover. Problem solved. Again, that sounds heartless, but in terms of spreading the disease to the US, it doesn't seem like an issue.

Joseph Cox 1 week ago Author's comment

People in Venezuela do and Brazil and Mexico and El Salvador...

Michelle Bell 1 week ago Member's comment

Best solution would be to make a vaccine. All of our efforts should be focused on that.

Joseph Cox 1 week ago Author's comment

Too long a timeline

Michelle Bell 1 week ago Member's comment

Donald Trump says we're close to a vaccine and that it may go away on its own by April anyway.

Joseph Cox 1 week ago Author's comment

I wish he sounded more realistic.less wishful thinking and more realism.

Angry Old Lady 1 week ago Member's comment

Yes, when it comes to the coronavirus, Trump is in La La Land.

Alexa Graham 1 week ago Member's comment

You say that 100% of Covid patients who were treated with both hydroxychloroquine and a Z-Pak were cured by day six of treatment. Day six?? How long are people sick for WITHOUT treatment?

Joseph Cox 1 week ago Author's comment

It typically takes weeks to kill. This was only a small study, but a promising one.

Alexa Graham 1 week ago Member's comment

Wow, but for normal people just recovering at home, how long until they are better? I have a relative who tested positive. She said she's never been so sick in her life. I thought she would be better in a few days. Will she be sick for months??

Joseph Cox 1 week ago Author's comment

Doesn't look like it. www.worldometers.info/.../#duration

Alexa Graham 1 week ago Member's comment

Thanks, it says severe is 3 to 6 weeks. That's a lot! Any idea how they differentiate between mild and severe cases? She's really sick, sicker than she's ever been in her life, but not so sick that she feels her life is in danger or that she needs to go to the hospital.

Maximum Power Trading 1 week ago Member's comment

It defined that lower down in the document. Mild cases are defined as having flu-like symptoms (simply recover at at home). While severe is defined as developing severe diseases including pneumonia and shortness of breath.

But I know I've had some "mild" flus which made me absolutely miserable. Having that for weeks would be brutal. And any flu can worsen into pneumonia.

Mad About Money 1 week ago Member's comment

I thought the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions were killed by the #coronavirus pretty quickly. Wouldn't those who are going to die, still be dead by day 6?

Joseph Cox 1 week ago Author's comment
Jason Green 1 week ago Member's comment

Are you so sure #Covid19 is here to stay? I believe that many experts have said that it may not survive through the summer months.

Joseph Cox 1 week ago Author's comment

It will recede. South America and much of Africa are going into winter.

Jason Green 1 week ago Member's comment

Oh man, I hadn't thought of that!