I'm A Coronavirus Heretic. Here's Why...
I'm officially a coronavirus heretic (although many UK experts agree with me - see link and additional commentary below).
The virus is terrible. It will kill many people and overwhelm our health systems.
But what we're doing about it is almost certainly worse.
In this episode, I explain why.
Watch:
Video length: 00:13;25
Or Listen:
Audio length: 00:13:36
This is a special episode. It was recorded as a video on Youtube, and as a podcast on Candidate Everyone (or tune your podcasting app to Candidate Everyone).
The core data is from:
- The Korean CDC
- A UK panel on interventions
- The U.S. Census (for age distributions)
- Any stock market tracker (for market losses)
- World Bank (for global poverty levels)
- UN Food and Agriculture Organization (for global hunger levels)
- Statistica (for other death rates)
- ThinkProgress (for impact of unemployment on mortality)
- And our beloved Wikipedia (for other data)
As a note, I'm pretty strident in this video. But I know there are many unknowns. We must make decisions despite unknowns - based on the best of our knowledge.
We can't allow fear of what the virus could be to erase the open-eyes assessment of what we can be highly confident our actions will cause.
I do, of course, welcome feedback. There are many experts on this list - including medical professionals with deep experience. I did run the ideas on this podcast/video past a highly experienced infectious diseases expert who agrees with them. The only gap in the video is there because I had to edit out my reference to him.
>> Continue Watching Part 2: Stop The Corona Insanity - The Data
I saw that China is now denying health care to anyone over 60. It's like being trapped in a horror movie!
That would be Italy, not China. Chinese medical care is poor for everybody. Italy has over 22,000 deaths a year from the flu.
If the US had the same fatality rate 135,000 Americans a year would die from the flu. About 40,000 do. Italy is uniquely unable to deal with these illnesses.
Maybe it is smoking and age...
www.ijidonline.com/.../fulltext
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Yes, sorry - I meant Italy. Not sure why I had China on the brain. But I read news articles that said between 1 million and 2.2 million Americans will die if we don't lockdown the population. Isn't that too much of a cost?
I am in favor of a short lockdown to get better prepared. That said, the South Koreans are clearly learning how to treat cases. 1.1 to 2.2 million Americans? I think doing nothing would cost about 30 million life years (I'm adjusting death vs. life expectancy). Longer term mass isolation would cost north of 65 million life years. Selective isolation might cost only 15 million life years. No good choices, but there are worse ones.
https://youtu.be/mVCYPZhYFqs
I think I am going to cry!
I heard on NPR news radio that Washington state is going to deny medical services to anyone with disabilities. That they need to conserve the limited medical services for able bodied Americans. Sounds like a move from the Third Reich. They are now going to be sued for discrimination.
Source? It might be that they will triage based on normal triage criteria - if you are unlikely to survive due to other issues then in emergencies you won't receive care.
As I said, I heard it on the radio on NPR news, so can't actually share the direct link. But I did a Google search and did find it on another sites: thearc.org/disability-discrimination-complaint-filed-over-covid-19-treatment-rationing-plan-in-washington-state/
All developed economies that I am aware of are failing reproductively meaning that the women are averaging too few children to balance the demographics and this leads to an ever aging population until support systems are overwhelmed. This does not reverse over time as each generation of women has even fewer children at ever later ages.
It appears we will hit a point where frail elderly and the chronically ill people who have chosen to destroy their health are helped to exit somewhat sooner than currently expected.
Since Italy is referred to the median age is about 47 and each woman has fewer than 1.47 children where 2.1 are required. To have a vibrant and dynamic society the median age should be about 28 so this is the shape of irreversible population collapse and Germany and Japan are in somewhat worse shape.
Using anesthetics and morphine to shut down the chronically ill elderly as a change of policy during the current virus panic can be attempted.
Israel is not failing reproductively.
Israel while developed is a tiny state as you are aware in very dramatic circumstances. You rather think that this tiny enclave should be taken as typical? No of course not. How Israel is actually financed is interesting is it not?
Mike, what do you mean when you say it is interesting how the country is financed?
Oh, and I'm not in favor of such terminating the old. Yes we have old people who aren't economically productive. But I think that is one of the beautiful things about the wealth of our society - we can care about things beyond survival and economic strength. Of course, we need economic strength and survival to do that - but we can invest in something greater.
The numbers cannot be made to work though you may demonstrate how this can be the case. In Japan more adult diapers are sold than baby diapers and I suspect it might be the same in Germany and Italy.
The economy supports the heavy populations other than in very primitive subsistence economies which of course have few elderly due to short life expectancies as was the case in the USA itself until well after 1900.
In a century we see a country like Germany where 8.6 are born for every 12.1 who die.
You are an antirealist or anti-materialist in a philosophical sense as opposed to consumerism but no society can get older with every passing year so Germany can triple its immigration rates to maintain stability or terminate the frail elderly at a rate that maintains stability and a vibrant dynamic society as the population declines but either way it’s 2.115 children per female or the Germans themselves vanish as many peoples have. There are a number of outcomes possible but a society where the 80+ outnumber the 01 to 15 is not possible even in a simulation. Thanks for your comment but expect your responsibilities to be pressed upon you at some point if you evade a violent death.
Ouch! That's rough and kind of heartless, don't you think?
You might think so but Death is inevitable as is old age and steep declines. Many false impressions have been converted to the public about medical miracles and while there are many advances there is no chance of immortality or of not getting one day older with each passing day so I do not blame anyone for accepting these deeply false assurances.
There is a great deal here to consider but there is no path that allows a society to get endlessly older while birth rates are suppressed by choice or otherwise.
When the median age crosses somewhere between 50 and 55 societies will be completely senescent and some countries like Japan sell more adult diapers than baby diapers.
I have seen this done and it can be accomplished absolutely seamlessly with no fear, pain or anxiety.
Maybe people will take up an interest in family life again, maybe not but if they do not the outcome will be the same - cultural disappearance. See the point? They are dying out in Italy and either this is reversed by capping off resources to the chronically ill or the die off is assured.
It's optimistic to say people will take up interest in family life again. Being cooped up with your family is not conducive for that over a long period of time. Now that China is ending lockdowns, people are lined up to file for divorce. And in America, they say child and spousal abuse is now way up.
Thank you for your reply and I appreciate your point however the end result is still the same. This is entirely the choice of individual women of course but unless the number of children being born increases by at least 33% with women bearing children about age 24 the population will age out and disappear over time and on the way will become very senescent and lose the capacity to innovate and solve the unknowable problems of the future.
So while it may seem optimistic it is a minimal configuration. Eventually the current populations will be replaced by someone so it would be an interesting circumstance were the 65+ crowd be reduced to 8% of the US or other developed state population. Maybe it would not and if it did not the outcome will closely follow the current path. Today in Germany 12.1 people will die and 8.6 will be born. This is not going to work as each year the German median age will rise until a very large die back occurs.
You make it sound like the human race will die out! Overpopulation is a problem as well, but I don't think humanity will die out any time soon.
Yes Ms. Hiker, it is heartless, but it may be necessary. Someone else here shared that Italy is considering banning health care to anyone over 80 and leaving them to die:
www.telegraph.co.uk/.../italians-80-will-left-die-country-overwhelmed-coronavirus
You are a disturbing human being, Mike. Shutting down old people to lower the median age in a nation is not according to the traditions that made our nation blessed and great.
It may seem so but average life expectancy in the US in 1800 was under age 40 in the range 35-40. This is the real experience that gave the new nation vigor and vitality.
A handful of people did live to an advanced age but very few so we would reduce the group age 65+ from 18% perhaps to 10% then lower depending on energy levels, courage in adversity, and willingness to accept risks and responsibility.
The USA has a median age of 38 and has a great deal of severe chronic health conditions that makes the USA a lot older and sicker than it might be assumed on the basis of the number 38.
Countries like Italy, German, Japan and many other are senescent societies and seem likely to disappear. The land will still be there of course along with the lakes, rivers, and sky but these peoples will be gone.
Now my question is would the Italian women suddenly become interested in family when the median age approached 30 or would they continue dying out as currently.
Don't be concerned as I have observed skilled anesthetists shut down the frail elderly and the younger chronically ill in irreversible coma and you will feel absolutely nothing and need not see anyone.
@[Joseph Cox](user:127658), why aren't you answering or responding to anyone's comments and questions?
I was busy making the second video! It answers a lot of people's questions. talkmarkets.com/.../stop-the-corona-insanity-the-data
This is a solid address if a bit on the soft side. Most people have no idea what the real mortality numbers are in the USA for example and not thinking about them makes life easier for them but 7500 people die everyday in the US and there is a massive population of people with one or more chronic life threatening conditions.
Their departure slightly sooner will be a net benefit across the system and is shortly inevitable in any case so it's not like shutting the economy down buys them eternal youth so resume normal operations and take the casualties, the sick time, and a reduction on the 65 M people well over age 65.
Doctors made a great deal of money promising miracles and have delivered to a degree in some cases but often it is simply an ultra expensive extension of a senescent individual.
No one supernatural or mortal is coming to save them or you so let's not break the economy for what was just one more false promise.
How is it that people can't figure out what the mortality rate is? How hard is it to track how many people are actually dying?
Almost all of the deaths will be among the chronically ill frail elderly with one or more life threatening conditions within sight of their last day so while CV-19 was the last straw so to speak they are dying slightly earlier than otherwise expected.
Healthy people who have excellent immune systems and are 60 and under will be ill and recover as typical from a respiratory virus. If younger and you have ruined your health with Meth addiction, acquired Hep C, HIV, HPV, HHV, TB, etc. etc it might push you over so cause of death is complex. Hospital supervisors will instruct doctors as to what to record and whether to trumpet CV-19 or not.
We can figure out who's dying. Figuring out who is sick is the hard part.
Not if we actually tested the people who are sick. We just need more testing kits. South Korea has no problem - we should buy them from them. And China likely now has a surplus that it's under control there. Instead the US insisted on making their own defective kits.
I saw some private companies were now producing home testing kits and are selling them online for almost $200 each. So at least the wealthy can get tested. The gov't should nationalize these companies and mass produce the heck out of these kits!
It is too late for that.
Three words: #FlattenTheCurve! Here is why...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSQztKXR6k0
Personally, I have no idea what's going on. For weeks #Trump kept saying nothing was wrong, go about your day to day, everything is fine. He's on TV shaking hands and scoffing at concerns. Now all of a sudden there is a national emergency?
And now I feel sick and am afraid I have it. Sure, it may be psychosomatic, or just a regular cold, but maybe not. And I tried to get tested but couldn't because I have not been in known direct contact with someone infected. Do I self isolate for 2 weeks? How do I do that when I live with my family?
Lack of testing adds to the panic. I believe the death rate is quite low in the USA. It may even be as low as flu. But lack of testing makes that impossible to prove.
Yes that is true. Why is it that so many of the rich and famous have all been tested, even if they show no symptoms, while people like me can't get tested. Certainly, I'm not the only one with this problem.
I think you answered your own question - because they are rich and famous while you are not. My sister had direct contact with someone infected and is now ill. She was tested but that was THREE days ago and she is still waiting for the results. Yet the entire Utah Jazz basketball team all managed to be tested, results in hand, within 24 hours.
This can't be true. I specifically heard #Trump say that anyone who wants a test can have one. Though he might have said "Anyone (rich and famous) who wants a test can have one" - sometimes the sound cuts out on my TV. ;-)
I'm working on a startup and will now never get funding. I work as a waiter to get money and the restaurants are all closed. I live paycheck to paycheck. And I'm not alone. How will I pay rent? Whether we flatten the curve, abandon the elderly or make them our priority, or whatever, none of this will help. I don't see this ending any time soon. I'll be homeless before we find a cure.
Didn't understand all this. "Social Distancing," "Flatten The Curve," It's like we are speaking a new language now. But it doesn't matter. We are screwed no matter what we do. Time to invest in guns and liquor!
I still think #coronavirus is either a hoax, or just a whopping waste of time. It's not that big of a deal - I don't know anyone who is infected, but even if I did, so what? They'll get a little cold?
People are more likely to both catch, and die from the flu. All this panic will absolutely destroy the economy. Yes the coronavirus can kill old people. So can the flu, so can a fall. If it isn't this virus, it will be something else. Why shut down the world over it? This is insanity!!!
Actually, your data is out of date. You can not compare a year of the flu to a couple months of the coronavirus - it is just getting started here. Plus the flu kills less that.1% of those infected. Covid19 kills 3.4% (and 6.6% in Italy). That's 34 to 66 times more deadly!
Coronavirus deaths in the US are 1.7 percent.
I keep seeing 3.4% everywhere. Where did you see only 1.7%? I find that surprising considering so few people have been tested. Once we start getting mass tests like South Korea, I do expect the mortality rate to fall considerably. And if you look at the link @[Leslie Miriam](user:28430) shared below. death is not the only long-term repercussion of being infected. Many of those recovered have persistent problems after.
Actually, I believe the 1.7 percent is too high. But without enough testing it cannot be proven. That adds to the panic!
Excellent points, @[Dick Kaplan](user:7622). It's also worth noting that not everyone recovers from #covid19 and is suddenly as good as new. Many have a months-long recoveries or permanent damage. Please read this:
www.newsweek.com/young-unafraid-coronavirus-pandemic-good-you-now-stop-killing-people-opinion-1491797
You will occasionally get ill and may or may not recover and regardless you will die like the 100 or so billion Humans who have preceded us so please go peacefully when it is your time without breaking the economy. Thank You!
This is a novel, brave, and bold idea.
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