Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

E The Bank Of Canada Clings To Hope In Its Recent Rate Decision
The pandemic and public health policy continue to condition the economic outlook, not monetary or even fiscal policy.
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E Bonds And The Re-Inflation Trade Re-Examined
A flood of new debt issuances will be needed to cover increases in deficit financing.
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E The Pandemic Is Taking A Heavy Toll On Canadian Workers
The Canadian labor survey results for December are very disheartening. Many of the most important aspects of the Canadian labor market have been hit and hit hard.
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E Wishful Thinking About A Rapid Recovery
Investors are pinning their hopes on an economic recovery, some even expect a surge in consumption that will lead the way to a V-shaped recovery. What lies behind this optimism?
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E The Two-Track Consumer Credit Market
The basis of an economic recovery lies with the consumer, yet consumer behavior continues to show inconsistency.
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E Do Debt-To-GDP Ratios Really Matter?
As government deficits soar, commentators increasingly focus on the debt-to-GDP ratio to measure a country’s fiscal health.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Where Are The Bond Vigilantes?
1 month ago

Arthur you're mixing a stock with a flow when you start comparing outstanding debt to GDP. There's no criteria to judge the burden of debt in that way

With 17 trillion dollars of debt trading at negative interest rates the bond market is giving an opposite signal. Namely that deflation is the order of the day. The Bond vigilantes have spoken.

The Two-Track Consumer Credit Market
1 month ago

I fully agree with that conclusion.

The Poison Chalice Of Low Interest Rates
1 month ago

The reason why interest rates are so low is because there is excessive savings. Germanyand Japan for example have excessive savings even though they havenegative interest rates.. They chose as a nation to produce more more than they consume and export the surplus. The US chose the opposite

This has been going on for decades.

Business And Households Amass Cash To Withstand The Pandemic
2 months ago

So far the banks have been able to attract deposits. The alternative for safe keeping is short-term government debt which is a near- form of cash.

The longer-term problem is insufficient spending and too much saving which holds back economic growth.

Are Canadian Governments Fiscally Irresponsible, Or Economically Smart?
2 months ago

I totally agree. Canadian response was appropriate and within the parameters of responsible fiscal policy. Big question is whether this will be enough, now that the expectations for the winter months are for a significant rise in infection rates, lockdowns and declining economic growth.

The Bank Of Canada Reorients Its Balance Sheet Towards Long-Term Bonds
3 months ago

There is no criteria to judge whether a central bank holds too much of public debt. The Bank of Japan owns more than 80% of its govt debt. If the debt is serviced, is liquid and can be rolled over readily then ownership is not an issue. Whether individuals or their central bank own the debt is an ideological debate, not a practicable matter in the financials. The issue of debt goes only to the faith that it is serviceable and redeemable

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It Is An Open Secret That Central Banks Are Moving Towards Digital Currencies
3 months ago

What will hurt the banks is the competition from fintech companies that are going to bypass the banks payment system. The Canadian banks are way behind the curve on that point.

The Bank Of Canada Is Aggressively Expanding Its Quantitative Easing
4 months ago

In both countries though the economic collapse is so deep and wide that government spending has to be at these levels if not higher. Without that the economic hardship would be politically unacceptable.

Inflation Virus Strikes Fed
4 months ago

One unintended consequence of raising rates in response to higher rent costs is the reduction in housing supply which in turn adds to higher rents,

IThe Fed rate is too blunt an instrument to tackke sectoral shifts in costs that supply driven

Rationalization: Low Rates Justify High Valuations
4 months ago

Low interest rates have not led to weak growth. Instead it is the reverse. Low interest rates are a sign of weakness and present and future earnings. Milton Friedman show this to be true decades ago when he visited Japan and stated that the low interest rates were a reflection of a weak economy. When nterest rates hit zero and the discount rate then is zero. This leads to an absurd discounted cash flow model using is there a discount rate.

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (31 years 10 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)