Consulting Economist

I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

S Two Central Banks One Optimistic One Very Pessimistic
The most recent decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to raise their respective policy rates could not present a more divergent outlook for investors.
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S BoC Choses To Raise Rates Despite Acknowledging That Inflation Is Due To Worldwide Supply Constraints
Canada’s GDP growth rates are far from ‘excessive’, especially given the severe drop in output experienced during the lockdowns of 2020-21.
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S The Canadian Bond Market Has Fully Adjusted To Future Inflation Expectations
Canadian bank economists continue to anticipate that the Bank of Canada will hike rates well into 2023 as part of its strategy towards normalizing rates.
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S The Seeds Are Planted For The Next Recession
Conventional recessions usually have their beginnings in the consumer sector as weakening incomes and rising inventories result in a widespread slowdown.
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S Making The Case For Higher Interest Rates Just Became More Complex As The Ukraine Invasion Continues
Central banks have the unenviable task of setting interest rate policy at a time of heighten uncertainty. The task is made infinitely more difficult because the ‘fog of war’ offers no visibility.
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S What The Bond Market Is Saying About The Great Inflation Debate
So far, the financial markets are confident that the Fed will contain inflation in the future and are content with real interest rates well in negative territory.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Canada’s Labor Force Participation Rate Has Been Shrinking For Quite A While
5 months ago

Arthur

The last chart does not identify which group is which.

Just How Vulnerable Is The Canadian Housing Market
6 months ago

Yours is an American perspective which does not apply to Canada,In 2008 the Canadian housing market did not see foreclosures or price collapse. The Canadian housing market was totally unaffected and not infected by the collapse in the US, Canadian banks did not buy US mortgages 

Just How Vulnerable Is The Canadian Housing Market
6 months ago

Yours is an American perspective which does not apply to Canada,In 2008 the Canadian housing market did not see foreclosures or price collapse. The Canadian housing market was totally unaffected and not infected by the collapse in the US, Canadian banks did not buy US mortgages 

Is The Bank Of Canada About To Make A Policy Mistake?
6 months ago

Stagnant income has been the lot of millions this century. Now the US is polarized because all boats have not risen. Stagnation gives rise to income inequality with great political consequences

Is The Bank Of Canada About To Make A Policy Mistake?
6 months ago

Stagnant income has been the lot of millions this century. Now the US is polarized because all boats have not risen. Stagnation gives rise to income inequality with great political consequences

The Perils Of Forecasting Inflation
7 months ago

Govt spending is NOT the source of inflation. You have to look at revenues less spending--the deficit- in govt. That deficit is very small relative to the size of the economy is less than 10%. The inflation from shortages as we restart the economies is the source of inflation. 

10-Year Yields And Implications
9 months ago

Arthur

If long rates were to move up 200bps the impact would be very damaging. Since the investment grade corporate bond spreads are very narrow--approx. 150 pbs, that market would be severely impacted and this would lead to a dramatic sell off in the equity markets. The equity, corporate and govt bond markets are vey intricately tied.  A 200pbs move on the 10 yr would mean that 10 yr interest costs more than double and would be very bad for housing and all sectors relying on capital investment. It would kill any nascent recovery.

The Fed will not allow this to happen. It will, as Japan does, introduce yield curve control (YCC) and bring down long rate through selective bond buying. We have had negative real yields for more than a decade and too much of the economy relies on that being maintained. I would not go short on the bonds for this reason.

We’re Not In Kansas Anymore
10 months ago

How does a market crash lead to inflation?

Liquidity Is Trapped In The Banks
10 months ago

The essence of this problem of excess liquidity or the liquidity trap is slow economic growth. And that is why monetary stimulus is not able to do anything when real rates of interest are negative as they are today. The only solution to stimulate growth is expansionary fiscal policy which we now have an abundance because of the pandemic.

Canada's Employment Continues To Sputter As It Struggles With Re-Opening
11 months ago

Very valid point about correlation

Even if We get out of the third wave the output gap will be huge,I do not understand why anyone thinks the BoC will raise its rate next year.

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Work Experience

President
Titleist Advisory Services
September 1989 - Present (33 years 2 months)

Advised clients and provided quantitative and analytical research on fixed income markets, yield curve analysis , currency risks assessments and overall asset allocation.

Senior Economic Consultant
A.R.A. Consultants
September 1983 - September 1989 (6 years 2 months)

Responsible for business development and research management for clients in both the public and private sectors; areas of experience include: , transportation, natural resources, non-conventional energy and industrial projects.

Senior Consultant
Peat Marwick and Partners
April 1979 - June 1983 (4 years 3 months)

Industry studies for private and public sector clients; areas of research include energy transportation, public finance and industrial development strategies.

Senior Economic Consultant, Energy
Government of Canada, Dept of Transport
January 1980 - January 1981 (1 year 1 month)

Directed research projects on energy utilization in transportation in relation to national
energy pricing policy.

Director of Research
C.D. Howe Institute
September 1972 - June 1981 (8 years 11 months)

Responsible for studies in Canada-US relations, international trade and macroeconomics; published studies on wages, productivity, GNP growth and international energy pricing, natural resources ; supervised outside researchers.

Education

Publications

The Anti-Inflation Guidelines: Linking Wages To Productivity
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1976)
A Reassessment Of Canada's Economic Potential
Norm Mogil
C. D. Howe Research Institute (1974)