Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 24
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Expect Crude Inventories To Drop Below 5yr. Avg
US Crude is higher because Refining Inputs fell. Refining input is unusually low but will recover.
Chemical Activity Barometer Turn Higher...
The Chemical Activity Barometer (CAB) is a composite economic indicator. It is an indicator derived from data generated from all aspects of industrial, energy, import/export and consumer activity.
Recessions And Yield Curve
Recessions require a period of excess speculation such that we have a rise in defaults. Recent history shows that it is credit card debt which defaults first.
Oil Inventories Should Continue To Fall
Expect a continued decline in US Crude Inventories below the 5yr Moving Average to push WTI higher with the historical market psychology response all things being equal.
Data Still Very Positive For Equities
The latest Job Openings report nearly eliminates the dip shown in the previous data indicating that the current uptrend remains in force.
T-Bill/10yr Treasury Spread And Recessions
History from 1953 indicates that when the T-Bill/10yr Treas Rate Spread falls to 0.20% or lower a recession occurs, but not this time.
Recession Talk Is Mythology
The employment, vehicle and inflation data reported the past 7 days are in line with long-term trends of the current cycle.
Recession?
Recession talk abounds. The media feeds fears that current conditions are leading to the next Great Depression.
SP500 Intrinsic Value Update
The Value Investor Index for the SP500 shifted a little higher with the drop in recent 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE readings.
Real GDP & Real Private GDP Higher On Fiscal Policies
The Oct 2018 GDP reveals a nice bump above the longer term Trailing Twelve Month(ttm) trend.
Oil Supplies Falling
Something interesting is happening in the oil markets. Goldman says $75 in 2019 and inventories took an unexpected fall this week with a draw of 8.6M barrels vs the expected 2.8M gain.
Chemical Activity Barometer Turns Higher...
The continued strength in the CAB is good evidence for a full recovery from the recent panic and higher equity prices beyond that.
Algorithms Correlating Oil To S&P More Than In Past
Momentum Investor algorithms connect oil prices to SP500 much more today than in past. The weekly SP500 vs. WTI from July 2009 reflects some correlation 10yrs ago having evolved into an exaggerated correlation today.
Media Hypes Retail Sales Drop
This report has no particular significance when placed in context with the trend since 2009. There is a typical volatility for the series mostly due to data collection, but the trend continues higher.
Job Openings Post Another Record High
Job Openings, a leading economic indicator, posts another record high. The economic context is sound. Why have markets not responded?
Real Private GDP, Currency Creation, Inflation & Corp Profits Trend Together But No Mathematical Relationship
Real Private GDP, currency creation, inflation, corporate profit are all intimately connected. There is no mathematical relationship, but they trend together.
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