Norman Mogil - Comments
Consulting Economist
I received undergraduate and graduate degrees in economics and finance from the University of California, Los Angeles, 1968. My professional expertise is in macro-economics; currency and trade strategies; interest rates and yield curve analysis and fixed income strategies. For the past two decades ...more
Latest Comments
The Bank Of Canada Holds Out For A ‘Neutral’ Rate Of Interest
6 years ago

Canada exports to China about$ 30b mostly in unfinished goods. Canada exports to the US is $500 b in high value items. It is unlikely that Canada is looking for a trade deal with China. We signed on for the TPP but that excluded China.

As for you last article, I am going to stay clear of any comment for obvious reasons.

Cheers

Charts And History Reveal Why The Fed Must Break Stuff
6 years ago

Today Caterpillar came in with very poor earnings, but the outlook is just a bad. CAT projects an additional $200m in operating costs just from tariffs on steel and aluminum. Tariffs could be the policy that breaks stuff.

Charts And History Reveal Why The Fed Must Break Stuff
6 years ago

The deflationary forces of a trade war could come sooner than the Fed can move beyond neutral. The timing is so hard to predict.

The U.S. Treasury Sell-Off Needs To Be Confirmed By Inflationary Pressures
6 years ago

Ultimately it will be deflationary as a 25% tariff hits consumers

Surprisingly Fed members do not voice this concern.

Is The USA Too Weak To Let China Succeed?
6 years ago

Ironically, by putting up a tariff wall discourages efficiency improvement in the US and just opposite effect in forcing China to be more competitive. Making China great?

In this article: AAPL
The Basic Flaw In The EU Fiscal Position: The Case Of Italy Today
6 years ago

A country needs an adjustment mechanism to allow for changes in its competitive positions. The fact that Italy cannot use i the Euro to bear the brunt of its lost competitiveness it must adjust by a drop in wages and incomes of all types. it is not the fault of the Euro but the uncompetitiveness of the Italian economy that has driven the best to leave the country.

My point is that Italy cannot run an independent fiscal policy in the interest of promoting growth.because it must adhere to deficit limits imposed by the EU.

It Is Easy To Understand Why The U.S. Has Backed Down On NAFTA Deadlines With Canada
6 years ago

There is a certain advantage that I have living in Toronto when it comes to understanding U S trade policy.

Fed Signals Will Break The Economy. Wait Til Trump Finds Out
6 years ago

Gary, when you add the rising Fed deficit each year to rising Fed funds rate, the mixture could be toxic in a few years. Right now, the world is still buying USTs---mainly because of the problems in the EMs---but that could change for the worse.

China Fires Back With Tariffs On LNG, Wheat, Whine: US LNG Exporters Dive
6 years ago

It took Canada and the EU 10 years to finalize a trade pact. Fat chance the US will do deal in less time given all the animosity created by Trump

In this article: WEAT
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