US should examine how Canada handles immigration. First, we take in about 400,000 a year or just over 1% of total population. Without that number we would actually depopulate which is bad for the economy. Second, the program is tied heavily to specific skills and qualifications so that immigration helps fill holes in the labour force. Third, we are the only country, I believe, that has private sponsorship for immigrants which means the govt does not foot the whole cost of resettlement. We took in 40,000 Syrian refugees totally under private sponsorship groups ( e.g. churches, synagogues, private charities, etc) without direct government aid. The process was relatively seamless without fanfare.

Increase in rate could be tolerated because of the strength in housing demand. Even with the mortgage rates up about 50bps over last year, forecast call for only a slight drop in new homes build as population pressures continue to push the market up. Even after a big change in mortgage rules in late 2017, home prices increased by about 6% in Toronto since the rules came into effect.

I think you are right on the mark. No central banker worried about P/E in tech stocks in the 100.But heaven forbid that wages grow at 4% the bond yields soar.

Canada exports to China about$ 30b mostly in unfinished goods. Canada exports to the US is $500 b in high value items. It is unlikely that Canada is looking for a trade deal with China. We signed on for the TPP but that excluded China.

As for you last article, I am going to stay clear of any comment for obvious reasons.

Cheers

Today Caterpillar came in with very poor earnings, but the outlook is just a bad. CAT projects an additional $200m in operating costs just from tariffs on steel and aluminum. Tariffs could be the policy that breaks stuff.

The deflationary forces of a trade war could come sooner than the Fed can move beyond neutral. The timing is so hard to predict.

Ultimately it will be deflationary as a 25% tariff hits consumers

Surprisingly Fed members do not voice this concern.

Ironically, by putting up a tariff wall discourages efficiency improvement in the US and just opposite effect in forcing China to be more competitive. Making China great?

A country needs an adjustment mechanism to allow for changes in its competitive positions. The fact that Italy cannot use i the Euro to bear the brunt of its lost competitiveness it must adjust by a drop in wages and incomes of all types. it is not the fault of the Euro but the uncompetitiveness of the Italian economy that has driven the best to leave the country.

My point is that Italy cannot run an independent fiscal policy in the interest of promoting growth.because it must adhere to deficit limits imposed by the EU.

There is a certain advantage that I have living in Toronto when it comes to understanding U S trade policy.