Thanks. Yes, there is real worry when Yellen, in retirement, comes out and says ' Houston, we have a problem'

The Fed does not have enough room to cut rates to ward off a recession. So what can it do other than jaw bone the stock market not to lose faith and start to bounce back. But it is too late since the forces pushing in the direction of recession have overtaken the Fed. In the Tyler Durden piece JP Morgan is arguing that there is a policy error in the making noe

see my comment to Gary

Since NGDP and real GDP use different inflation measures, they should not be used interchangeably to argue one's case. NGDP can grow because of increases in output and/or prices. Also, the price indices used to calculate NGDP is current prices and for real GDP is constant starting with a specific year in the past. One can pick the measure to suit one's argument.

So, monetarists can take comfort from a higher NGDP but for which reason? Higher output or higher prices?

My real concern is that all the monetary measures that drive an economy are tightening up and this is showing up within important sectors of the economy.For example, here in Canada, mortgage growth is running at 3% annual growth, nominally and housing prices are going up. So, nominal housing is growing. However, if mortgage growth is adjusted for inflation then real credit expansion is zero or maybe negative. The housing market is in trouble because of this.

Your analysis is typically misleading.. This is a fundamental difference between an accelerated depreciation allowance and a cut in the tax rate. Which is obvious to any business person. The US gave a gift with no obligAtion on the part of the business owners.Canada says no investment no tax deduction.

You are right. about a huge renewnal wave coming, The BoC is really concerned that they do not trigger a housing collapse. But at the same time they warn that rates are going up. A self fulling prophecy. I believe that the BoC is raising rates so that they have room to lower them quickly as the did in 2014 to deal with the collapse in oil prices. IT IS A CYNICAL ploy and may backfire now that Canadian oil sells for $20.

Several bank economists have come out warning the BoC as I have because of the oil situation

We had a problem with illegals under a broken system in the 1990s

We dealt with it by introducing a new system as i describes and at the same time we offered amnesty for all illegals.it was the only way handle the problem.

US should examine how Canada handles immigration. First, we take in about 400,000 a year or just over 1% of total population. Without that number we would actually depopulate which is bad for the economy. Second, the program is tied heavily to specific skills and qualifications so that immigration helps fill holes in the labour force. Third, we are the only country, I believe, that has private sponsorship for immigrants which means the govt does not foot the whole cost of resettlement. We took in 40,000 Syrian refugees totally under private sponsorship groups ( e.g. churches, synagogues, private charities, etc) without direct government aid. The process was relatively seamless without fanfare.

Increase in rate could be tolerated because of the strength in housing demand. Even with the mortgage rates up about 50bps over last year, forecast call for only a slight drop in new homes build as population pressures continue to push the market up. Even after a big change in mortgage rules in late 2017, home prices increased by about 6% in Toronto since the rules came into effect.

I think you are right on the mark. No central banker worried about P/E in tech stocks in the 100.But heaven forbid that wages grow at 4% the bond yields soar.