My name is Adem Tumerkan and I’m the analyst and editor at Speculators Anonymous.
I’m a macro-speculator and a former market analyst that got tired of the mainstream financial industry (full details below).
I’m LONG volatility, optionality, holistic thinking, cycles, and history — I’m SHORT ...
moreMy name is Adem Tumerkan and I’m the analyst and editor at Speculators Anonymous.
I’m a macro-speculator and a former market analyst that got tired of the mainstream financial industry (full details below).
I’m LONG volatility, optionality, holistic thinking, cycles, and history — I’m SHORT efficient markets, fragility, reductionsim, crowd thinking, and interventionism.
Some of my favorite thinkers and traders are Nassim Taleb, Mark Spitznagel, Benoit Mandelbrot, Stanely Druckenmiller, Michael Mauboussin, Ludwig Von Mises, and Hyman Minsky. Their work has greatly influenced my own ideas and investing.
I’m always looking for positively asymmetric (low risk – high reward) opportunities. .
Formerly, I was the Editor-in-Chief of Palisade Research. I'm a born contrarian and skeptic. I like the mining sector but I'm really a contrarian/value investor that looks for macro situations and asymmetric opportunities wherever they are. I use options regularly (I buy them ONLY - never sell, as I'm not suicidal) to make volatility my friend and set up for fat-tail events.
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Latest Comments
Snap Fails To Generate Interest And Value
Great article and Agree
Face Off: Stocks Vs. Bonds And The Economic Outlook
Here is the link.
www.talkmarkets.com/.../dismal-data--inverting-yields-signal-a-recession
Face Off: Stocks Vs. Bonds And The Economic Outlook
I just wrote an article also discussing the divergence. To me its more the Bond market vs the Fed. Bond investors expecting deflation and recession and disbelieving the Feds optimism for inflation and higher growth.
I also use the recent data showing falling loan origination markets...
If the Fed continues hiking and long term rates keep falling as economic data worsens, we're looking at an inverted yield curve. Which almost certainly will mean a recession.
Good article Sir.
Something Big Happened In The Gold Market: Must See Charts
Well done article
Jayant Bhandari: Gold Miners Overpriced
Only that mining equities were overvalued
Jayant Bhandari: Gold Miners Overpriced
Great interview - well done. Always a pleasure to hear Jayant's insight. But I must say I disagree with him on this one.
Gold Flows East – Silver Follows
Very good work - it's ridiculous the imbalance between people's perceptions of gold and its reality
Pundits 'Hunting' For 'Signs Of A Bear'
excellent article - a very good source of "real" data that major media hubs are absent of showing.
What Exactly Is The Fed Thinking? Avoid Catching Falling Knives
I think of it as more of a carefully approached speculation, similar to chess, about the only options the Fed has.
Recession is here this they need to cut/go negative/QE
Or they try to not embarrass themselves after touting how well the economy is doing, warranting a rate hike, and keep the hikes going to keep confidence in them - and plunge he economy into a great recession.
Either or both roads lead to the same path.
The Ghost Of The Feds Past: Rate Hikes, Rate Cuts, And The Great Collapse
I also dont think it is the sole reason either.
But mentioning China, they had a similar volatile and our markets also plunged in August, just as the crowd as positive the Fed would hike rates - then they didnt and markets rocketed.
The data is clear, we are in a recession.
Alot of the issues you just named are symptoms of a strong dollar in my opinion (or atleast the strong dollar added to the damage).