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The Market And Fed: Diverging Expectations
Wednesday, March 3, 2021 4:36 PM EDT
Using its new plan, the Fed won’t hike rates for a while (years). However, the market now sees hikes next year.
In this article: IEF, OIL, XLP
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Historical Post Pandemic Recovery Trends
Tuesday, March 2, 2021 4:54 PM EDT
If the Fed only hikes when the 3-year average core PCE inflation rate gets above 2%, it might not hike for years to come.
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Declining Sentiment Despite Increased Income & Savings
Monday, March 1, 2021 4:00 PM EDT
Consumers saved and paid off debt with the stimulus money. That’s why monthly consumption growth was only 2.4% which rose from -2.4% last month and beat estimates by 2 tenths.
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Why The Housing Market Could Decline
Saturday, February 27, 2021 1:50 PM EDT
The housing market is going to cool off in the next few months because more supply will continue to come into the market, rates are going to keep rising, and the trend of people moving to the suburbs is going to partially reverse.
In this article: SOXX
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Largest Negative Term Premium Since At Least 2007
Friday, February 26, 2021 8:00 AM EDT
Treasury yields spiked on Thursday. This time was different than the rally in the past few months because real yields spiked. The Fed said it wasn’t concerned, but obviously this will be an issue if it continues.
In this article: IEV, FVX
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This Rally Is Justified In Both Markets & Housing?
Wednesday, February 24, 2021 11:21 PM EDT
Home price growth won’t stay at this level, but there isn’t a bubble because there is a supply shortage of houses and the buyers are well qualified.
In this article: SPX
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Fastest Stock Market Rally In 90 Years
Wednesday, February 24, 2021 9:38 AM EDT
The Fed is dominating the TIPS market, but nominal rates keep rising. We could easily see the 10-year yield get above 2% if the Fed stops buying TIPS, but it probably won’t this year.
In this article: TIP
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America Is Leading In This Category
Monday, February 22, 2021 10:14 PM EDT
The services PMI in America is outperforming the rest of the developed world. The increase in supply will eventually douse the flames of the rally in speculative names.
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Fastest Industrial Production Recovery Ever
Monday, February 22, 2021 6:45 AM EDT
Industrial production is almost back to where it was in February which is very impressive. We might see a decline in the rate of monthly improvement as demand for goods falls when the economy reopens.
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2021 Is The Year Of The Consumer
Friday, February 19, 2021 6:30 AM EDT
2021 is going to be an amazing year for the consumer. The leisure and hospitality industry might have a better summer than it did in 2019 because of all the pent-up demand for travel.
In this article: OIL
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Do TIPS Limit The 10 Year Yield?
Thursday, February 18, 2021 8:49 AM EDT
The real yield is deeply negative. In fact, the real corporate bond yield is also negative. The real yield is dynamic. It is literally the nominal rate minus the breakeven rate, but it also affects them.
In this article: BITCOMP, TIP, IEF
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Is All Of 2021 Already Priced In?
Wednesday, February 17, 2021 5:47 AM EDT
What seemed impossible in 2020 is happening in 2021. The yield curve is steepening and commodities are rallying. The cold weather in America is boosting oil and natural gas prices.
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America Is Getting Older
Monday, February 15, 2021 12:32 PM EDT
The next fiscal program after the stimulus is passed and the pandemic is over should focus on improving the birth rate in America. It’s a huge problem that’s upcoming in a couple of decades.
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Largest Impact On Inflation As Economy Changes
Saturday, February 13, 2021 11:35 PM EDT
Shelter inflation has been falling. The 1.6% shelter inflation rate in January was the lowest rate since August 2011.
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Is This A New Commodity Supercycle?
Thursday, February 11, 2021 9:02 PM EDT
The January CPI report was weak. That’s understandable because rent inflation is very low. Shelter dominates that report.
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New Data On Retail Investment
Thursday, February 11, 2021 4:25 AM EDT
There is a bubble in stocks. The Fed will not take away the punchbowl because the real economy is weak.
In this article: IEF, IWM, SPX
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