Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
Contributor's Links: UPFINA.com

The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. 

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A Contrarian Indicator As Business Activity Hits A 6.5 Year High
The ADP report was weak. We don’t know if that means the BLS report will be weak. The ADP report has had a bad track record since the recession.
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The Market And Fed: Diverging Expectations
Using its new plan, the Fed won’t hike rates for a while (years). However, the market now sees hikes next year.
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Historical Post Pandemic Recovery Trends
If the Fed only hikes when the 3-year average core PCE inflation rate gets above 2%, it might not hike for years to come.
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Declining Sentiment Despite Increased Income & Savings
Consumers saved and paid off debt with the stimulus money. That’s why monthly consumption growth was only 2.4% which rose from -2.4% last month and beat estimates by 2 tenths.
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Why The Housing Market Could Decline
The housing market is going to cool off in the next few months because more supply will continue to come into the market, rates are going to keep rising, and the trend of people moving to the suburbs is going to partially reverse.
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Largest Negative Term Premium Since At Least 2007
Treasury yields spiked on Thursday. This time was different than the rally in the past few months because real yields spiked. The Fed said it wasn’t concerned, but obviously this will be an issue if it continues.
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