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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. 

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US Growth Projections For 2020
The most common response from investors is they expect the Chinese U.S. trade war to be the new normal. The IMF has lowered its 2019 global output estimate because of weak results. However, growth is expected to rebound in 2020.
The Bear Market Checklist
As the yield curve steepens, calls for a recession are growing because usually after yield curve inversions, steepening is coincident with recessions.
Third Biggest Consumer Surprise In 21st Century
The August University of Michigan consumer confidence report was highly discussed because it showed a big decline in confidence. It caused some to think the trade war was significantly hurting consumer spending.
Does Terrible Soft Data Indicate Recession?
Investors are bearish which is good for stocks. The soft data signals the economy is weak, but the hard data isn’t terrible.
Hiring Growth & Job Openings Fall
The Fed is almost locked into a rate cut in October especially because of the negative news on trade. The JOLTS report showed sequential weakness.
Small Businesses Are Still More Optimistic Than CEOs
The latest news on trade has been bad. If the planned tariffs are implemented, there will be a big impact on 2020 economic growth.
Was The September Labor Report Positive Or Negative?
The fun aspect of the September labor report is that there are a few ways to look at it.
The Market Begins Pricing In More Rate Cuts
Over the past few trading days, the market went from seeing a rate cut in December to seeing one in October, to potentially seeing one at both meetings.
Does The Market Finally See The Slowdown?
Of all the news events in October, whether it be about politics, monetary policy, or earnings, it’s surprising that the cause of volatility was the ISM manufacturing report since it told us what we already knew.
If This Continues Stocks Will Fall In October
The consensus for Q4 earnings growth, which we must follow the closest, is 6.01%. This estimate will fall in the next 3 months. If estimates continue falling, stocks will fall in October and November.
What Is The Manufacturing Sector Doing? Making Sense Of Mixed Data
The Markit PMI was worse than the ISM PMI earlier in the year. The latest readings are a role reversal. As much has been made about the ISM report, it’s important not to overreact.
Many Possible October Surprises
Markets are about to face an onslaught of news in October, with most of it occurring within 2 weeks.
New Cycle High In 3 Month Average New Home Sales
The housing market is being driven by the decline in rates. The yield curve inversion was a good thing because long yields fell which sunk mortgage rates.
Huge Drop In Consumers Saying Jobs Are Plentiful
Redbook same-store sales growth shows consumers aren’t being impacted by the latest tariffs. On the other hand, the Conference Board index plummeted the most in a year as suddenly confidence in the labor market has waned significantly.
Will Covenant Lite Loans Be An Issue?
Cov-lite loans might not be a problem. They had lower default rates and high recovery rates in the last recession. Also, German and US PMI.
This Doesn’t Happen During A Recession
The yield curve is at a crossroads. If it steepens soon, then it could be signaling a recession. If it doesn’t steepen in the next couple of months, there might not be a recession.
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