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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. 

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Latest Posts
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The Best Labor Market In 21 Years?
Jobless claims keep falling. Job cut announcements hit a 21 year low. Rent prices missed pre-pandemic estimates, but they’re coming back quickly.
Unrealistic Stock Return Expectations
The June ADP report beat estimates and estimates for private sector job creation in the BLS reading. Let’s see if that matters. We expect it to be relevant because all signs point to a solid BLS reading.
Continued Strength Of US Consumer?
The pandemic caused baby boomers to retire a few years earlier than they would have otherwise. Before the pandemic people were working later in life than ever.
Junk Is As Good As Gold
Junk bond yields are at a record low. This doesn’t mean a volatility event is coming soon, but one will come within the next few quarters like they always do.
No Corrections In 2021?
Recently the S&P 500 has stayed near its record high, while the median stocks hasn’t done as well.
Historical Stock & Bond Returns
Lumber prices fell sharply. This is a microcosm of the commodity space. Prices can’t rise quickly indefinitely without supply stopping the fun.
The Consumer Is Ready To Spend
The supply chain will be normalized in the 2nd half. 75% of the ships waiting off the coast of California are already gone.
The Economy Is Getting Back To Normal?
The TSA checkpoint data shows air travel is almost back to normal. Domestic leisure travel increased significantly. International and business travel aren’t close to normal.
The Stock Buybacks Are Coming
Buybacks exploded in 2021. Corporations have more money than they need.
The Factor Rotation Isn’t About The Fed
There was an intense factor rotation last week based on the prospect of peak economic growth. This allowed investors to buy value stocks on sale that might not even be cyclical.
Negative Real Junk Bonds
Rates are low because of low population growth. Spreads are tight because of the easy Fed policy and the lack of expected risks in the economy. Real high yield debt is negative for the first time ever.
Uncertainty Over The Dot Plot
The Fed’s guidance didn’t change, but the market reacted to the dot plot on Wednesday (bonds reversed on Thursday). This dot plot might be a misnomer because many FOMC members reacted to near-term inflation expectations.
Can The 10 Year Yield Fall Further?
The 10-year yield usually falls after CPI peaks, but this time might be different because it was so obvious CPI would peak in May.
Inflation Expectations Vary By Age
Older Americans are wearier of inflation than younger ones, but all age groups have raised expectations recently. EPS growth peaked, but that doesn’t mean stocks are about to fall.
There Isn’t Market Euphoria
There isn’t evidence of euphoria in stocks other than a few retail favorites. This doesn’t mean stocks are immune from a correction.
This Is The Inflation Peak For Now
Markets don’t react to unsustainable temporary results. The market had known for a few months this would be the peak in CPI.
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