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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. 

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Declining Sentiment Despite Increased Income & Savings
Consumers saved and paid off debt with the stimulus money. That’s why monthly consumption growth was only 2.4% which rose from -2.4% last month and beat estimates by 2 tenths.
Why The Housing Market Could Decline
The housing market is going to cool off in the next few months because more supply will continue to come into the market, rates are going to keep rising, and the trend of people moving to the suburbs is going to partially reverse.
Largest Negative Term Premium Since At Least 2007
Treasury yields spiked on Thursday. This time was different than the rally in the past few months because real yields spiked. The Fed said it wasn’t concerned, but obviously this will be an issue if it continues.
This Rally Is Justified In Both Markets & Housing?
Home price growth won’t stay at this level, but there isn’t a bubble because there is a supply shortage of houses and the buyers are well qualified.
Fastest Stock Market Rally In 90 Years
The Fed is dominating the TIPS market, but nominal rates keep rising. We could easily see the 10-year yield get above 2% if the Fed stops buying TIPS, but it probably won’t this year.
America Is Leading In This Category
The services PMI in America is outperforming the rest of the developed world. The increase in supply will eventually douse the flames of the rally in speculative names.
Fastest Industrial Production Recovery Ever
Industrial production is almost back to where it was in February which is very impressive. We might see a decline in the rate of monthly improvement as demand for goods falls when the economy reopens.
2021 Is The Year Of The Consumer
2021 is going to be an amazing year for the consumer. The leisure and hospitality industry might have a better summer than it did in 2019 because of all the pent-up demand for travel.
Do TIPS Limit The 10 Year Yield?
The real yield is deeply negative. In fact, the real corporate bond yield is also negative. The real yield is dynamic. It is literally the nominal rate minus the breakeven rate, but it also affects them.
Is All Of 2021 Already Priced In?
What seemed impossible in 2020 is happening in 2021. The yield curve is steepening and commodities are rallying. The cold weather in America is boosting oil and natural gas prices.
America Is Getting Older
The next fiscal program after the stimulus is passed and the pandemic is over should focus on improving the birth rate in America. It’s a huge problem that’s upcoming in a couple of decades.
Largest Impact On Inflation As Economy Changes
Shelter inflation has been falling. The 1.6% shelter inflation rate in January was the lowest rate since August 2011.
Is This A New Commodity Supercycle?
The January CPI report was weak. That’s understandable because rent inflation is very low. Shelter dominates that report.
New Data On Retail Investment
There is a bubble in stocks. The Fed will not take away the punchbowl because the real economy is weak.
No Recovery For The Bottom Half
Fewer people will get the next round of checks, but it’s still more than the bottom half of the country which has gotten a raw deal in this recession.
Good Employment Report?
The labor report was weak on an absolute basis, but it was better than December. There was positive job creation which is about all you can hope for in a pandemic where entertainment is shutdown.
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