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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. 

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Low Inflation Fueling Rally But Stocks Could Fall 20.16% In The Next Year
The Fed’s dovish policy shift was supported by the January CPI report. Headline monthly inflation was flat which matched December and was below estimates for 0.1%.
Disastrous December 2018 Retail Sales Report
The December retail sales report was so terrible that it implies a recession is coming soon if the data is accurate. There’s always a chance the data is incorrect because these results are revised.
Similar Set Up To 2000 & 2008 Or 2016?
It’s remarkable to see fund managers extremely bearish while stocks rally. Even though stocks are overbought, they can still rally higher if economic growth improves enough to change fund managers’ minds.
Impact Of Household Debt & Key Labor Market Indicator
Consumers aren’t overly indebted, but the increased delinquency rate for credit cards and auto loans should be watched closely. Student loans have risen exponentially in the past 15 years.
Bank Tightening Lending & Recession Risk
The banks pulled back from lending slightly in January. The good news is consumers want to borrow and have low leverage.
Eliminating Buybacks Isn’t A Free Lunch
On the one hand, buybacks are at a record high. On the other hand, it’s still odd timing to be looking for new laws to help workers when there is accelerating real wage growth for median workers.
Best Stock Response To Crashing Earnings Estimates Since 2009
Even though the terrible earnings estimate revisions imply the consensus will soon expect earnings to fall in 2019, stocks are doing the best after they report earnings since 2009.
Fast Food Worker Wages Compared To Labor Market
Many popular phrases on Wall Street are completely wrong and offer poor advice. One popular moniker that falls into this category is “the easy money has been made.”
Is US Economic Growth Actually Slowing?
The economy was inundated with great economic reports, but stocks were overbought so they didn’t rally. That doesn’t make the data useless. It supports the narrative that amid a global slowdown, the American economy’s slowdown barley exists.
Biggest Shift Since 2016
Instead of looking at the recent rally and moderating its tone slightly the Fed went full throttle with dovish rhetoric which shows the Fed was spooked by the December crash. This dovishness could fuel a further rally in stocks.
Emerging Markets Show Strength Despite Chinese Weakness
Current data is suggesting that technology or any firms with Chinese exposure may underperform while emerging markets that aren’t China could outperform.
Leading Indicators And Recession Risk
The stock market has rallied significantly while earnings estimates have declined. Let’s see in the next few weeks if the economic reports justify this increase.
U.S. Stocks At 70 Year High Versus Global Stocks
It’s no surprise the labor market is strong, and the housing market was relatively weak in November.
Less Than Half Of S&P 500 Firms Beat Sales Estimates
The good news is hard economic data hasn’t fallen. The bad news is earnings estimates for the first half of 2019 have cratered. By the time we get to Q1 earnings season, analysts might be expecting a decline.
Will Housing & Economy Recover In 2019?
It’s not just consumer sentiment that declined in early January.
Hard & Soft Data Show Divergence
The stock market is in a unique situation because the government shutdown has delayed many economic reports from being released.
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