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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. 

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Latest Posts
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One Third Of US GDP At Standstill
Friday, July 3, 2020 5:38 AM EDT
Jobless claims data has been weak for a few weeks. It’s increasingly problematic because the economy can’t afford the recovery to stall out this quickly.
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Momentum Growth Stocks Reach Extreme Valuations
Thursday, July 2, 2020 7:03 AM EDT
The CLOU ​cloud industry ETF is up 74% from its bottom in March. Bubbles are created when there is a toxic mixture of herding, a strong story, and chasing performance.
In this article: CLOU, SPOT, NKLA, SHOP, SQ, TSLA, ZM
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Stock Market Trajectory Into Election
Wednesday, July 1, 2020 5:42 AM EDT
Stock prices are determined by sales growth in the long term. Sentiment doesn’t matter in the long term, but it does in the short term. The states in the south and the west that are seeing spikes in cases opened too soon.
In this article: SPX
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An Economic Recovery Or An Illusion?
Monday, June 29, 2020 9:00 PM EDT
The final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment report showed the overall confidence index fell from the preliminary reading of 78.9 to 78.1. It was still up from 72.3 in May, but investors want to see continued increases.
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ESG: Robots > Humans
Saturday, June 27, 2020 4:57 PM EDT
We've mentioned ESG is the equivalent of going overweight tech and underweight energy. Major ESG ETFs tend to include firms with fewer employees meaning less carbon dioxide emitted, less trouble with unions, and less chance of a gender pay gap.
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Valuations In The 98th Percentile
Thursday, June 25, 2020 4:36 PM EDT
The median stock’s PE ratio is in the 98th percentile going back to 1973. Small businesses were in bad shape as of the end of April.
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CEOs Left At The Exact Right Time
Thursday, June 25, 2020 7:59 AM EDT
Year to date, offerings have totaled $199 billion which is a 66.5% increase from last year.
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Software Ate The World: Now What?
Tuesday, June 23, 2020 10:00 PM EDT
The definition of a bubble is very unclear. We will say it’s when an asset has a high valuation and subsequently falls 30% or more without a major negative catalyst.
In this article: AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, NVDA, FB, GOOGL, CSCO, SHOP, FSLY
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The Economy Needs Another Stimulus
Sunday, June 21, 2020 12:39 AM EDT
The jobless claims report was terrible on a rate of change basis. This is only one week of bad data, but if it continues, we won’t see anywhere close to a V-shaped recovery.
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EC Bearish Yet Long: The Definition Of FOMO
Friday, June 19, 2020 4:44 AM EDT
The U.S. stock market is in a highly unusual state even though there has been little movement in the past couple of days.
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Euphoria Limited To U.S. Stocks
Thursday, June 18, 2020 2:16 PM EDT
Retail traders aren’t driving the market higher; it’s fund managers. They were caught underweight U.S. equities in May even though the stock market has rallied significantly off the March 23rd low.
In this article: NDX
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Why The Fed’s Announcement Was Meaningless
Wednesday, June 17, 2020 10:12 AM EDT
The Fed’s latest announcement that it will buy individual corporate bonds sent people into a frenzy with some saying the markets are dead and others using it as an excuse to buy stocks.
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Narratives Change Like The Wind
Tuesday, June 16, 2020 1:30 AM EDT
Narratives tend to trail the market, meaning people come up with explanations of why the market moved after it happened. Effectively you can justify why any move happened.
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19 PE Multiple With Low Inflation
Sunday, June 14, 2020 11:26 AM EDT
We are always looking at valuations because that’s the backbone of investing. With extreme market volatility, the only way to stay sane is to have an understanding of what a business is worth.
In this article: SPX
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No Rate Hikes And No Rate Cuts?
Friday, June 12, 2020 11:00 AM EDT
The June labor report will probably have a smaller miscalculation. The household survey might have a higher response rate as the economy gets back to normal. The unemployment rate will probably fall even with the smaller error.
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Early Or Late Cycle Market?
Wednesday, June 10, 2020 11:06 PM EDT
Most indicators show retail sales growth is coming back. Currently, the economy and stock market are detached because stocks are doing well, while the economy is still in shambles despite its increase off the bottom.
In this article: SPX
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