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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. 

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One Third Of US GDP At Standstill
Jobless claims data has been weak for a few weeks. It’s increasingly problematic because the economy can’t afford the recovery to stall out this quickly.
Momentum Growth Stocks Reach Extreme Valuations
The CLOU ​cloud industry ETF is up 74% from its bottom in March. Bubbles are created when there is a toxic mixture of herding, a strong story, and chasing performance.
Stock Market Trajectory Into Election
Stock prices are determined by sales growth in the long term. Sentiment doesn’t matter in the long term, but it does in the short term. The states in the south and the west that are seeing spikes in cases opened too soon.
An Economic Recovery Or An Illusion?
The final June University of Michigan consumer sentiment report showed the overall confidence index fell from the preliminary reading of 78.9 to 78.1. It was still up from 72.3 in May, but investors want to see continued increases.
ESG: Robots > Humans
We've mentioned ESG is the equivalent of going overweight tech and underweight energy. Major ESG ETFs tend to include firms with fewer employees meaning less carbon dioxide emitted, less trouble with unions, and less chance of a gender pay gap.
Valuations In The 98th Percentile
The median stock’s PE ratio is in the 98th percentile going back to 1973. Small businesses were in bad shape as of the end of April.
CEOs Left At The Exact Right Time
Year to date, offerings have totaled $199 billion which is a 66.5% increase from last year.
Software Ate The World: Now What?
The definition of a bubble is very unclear. We will say it’s when an asset has a high valuation and subsequently falls 30% or more without a major negative catalyst.
The Economy Needs Another Stimulus
The jobless claims report was terrible on a rate of change basis. This is only one week of bad data, but if it continues, we won’t see anywhere close to a V-shaped recovery.
EC Bearish Yet Long: The Definition Of FOMO
The U.S. stock market is in a highly unusual state even though there has been little movement in the past couple of days.
Euphoria Limited To U.S. Stocks
Retail traders aren’t driving the market higher; it’s fund managers. They were caught underweight U.S. equities in May even though the stock market has rallied significantly off the March 23rd low.
Why The Fed’s Announcement Was Meaningless
The Fed’s latest announcement that it will buy individual corporate bonds sent people into a frenzy with some saying the markets are dead and others using it as an excuse to buy stocks.
Narratives Change Like The Wind
Narratives tend to trail the market, meaning people come up with explanations of why the market moved after it happened. Effectively you can justify why any move happened.
19 PE Multiple With Low Inflation
We are always looking at valuations because that’s the backbone of investing. With extreme market volatility, the only way to stay sane is to have an understanding of what a business is worth.
No Rate Hikes And No Rate Cuts?
The June labor report will probably have a smaller miscalculation. The household survey might have a higher response rate as the economy gets back to normal. The unemployment rate will probably fall even with the smaller error.
Early Or Late Cycle Market?
Most indicators show retail sales growth is coming back. Currently, the economy and stock market are detached because stocks are doing well, while the economy is still in shambles despite its increase off the bottom.
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