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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. 

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Cyclical Recovery Coming?
Historically, the only time the market has viewed good economic news as bad news is when the Fed was expected to tighten monetary policy. This is a unique scenario though, so you must be open to various possibilities.
Will The Labor Market Continue To Improve?
There is still plenty of room left in the labor market obviously. It’s just that the trend is towards more normalized job creation. This report slightly beat estimates for a 1.675 million increase.
Is The Economy Back To Recovering Quickly?
Disposable income growth was positive in Q2 which helps explain why credit card debt fell in the recession. The student loan delinquency rate fell sharply.
Unlimited Stock Valuation With Low Interest Rates?
Both the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were strong. In fact, they were stronger than their headlines indicated because of the negative impact of inventories/supplier deliveries.
US Stock Market More Extreme Than In March
The Fed doesn’t want to disrupt the stock market. That could create negative consequences. The problem is the more important the stock market gets, the worse a correction would be for the everyday person.
Unusual Variable For Labor Market Recovery
Caring for children not in school or at daycare was the 3rd most common reason people weren’t at work from May to July. It’s no surprise that the share of people not working due to child care more than tripled from before the pandemic.
FAMANG Controls The Market
The stock market is very overbought if you look at the put to call ratio. Investors around the world are piling into a few stocks which is a classic sign of a market top.
Is A 12% Decline In Jobless Claims Good Enough?
The jobless claims report was actually good for once as PUAs and regular unadjusted claims fell.
What Are Markets Pricing In?
Investors seek optionality and resilience. Optionality means there is more than one way to win. Resilience means the business model has a moat.
How Low Can Yields Go?
The total global negative-yielding debt is increasing. U.S. Treasury yields are very low partially because of the cyclical weakness. That might change in the coming months as another stimulus is coming and COVID-19 cases are falling.
Are Markets Priced To Perfection?
A diversified portfolio of gold, cash, bonds, and stocks just had its best 90-day return ever. Real yields are at a record low. Investors expect zero Fed rates for a few years.
Is This An L-Shaped Recovery?
There was a V-shaped recovery in housing as new home sales in June hit a 13 year high, but there wasn’t a V-shaped recovery in the labor market even though the May and June labor reports were very good.
Is The Labor Market Going To Be Weak For The Long-Term?
We have been reporting on the weak jobless claims readings for 6 weeks now. This latest report ended the record-long 15-week decline in seasonally adjusted initial claims.
US Economy Is Flatlining
The consumer is headed in the wrong direction which shouldn’t be a surprise. It’s actually surprising that it hasn’t weakened further.
S&P 500 Is Inverse Of The Economy
This market is on a whole different level. Investors take fiscal and monetary stimulus as a given.
Greater Greed Than 1990s Tech Bubble
There is some extreme optimism in the big internet stocks and the cloud stocks in general. That doesn’t mean a top is near.
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