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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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The purpose of UPFINA.com is to seek the truth as it relates to economics, finance and money. We do not have all the answers, but our ethos dictates that we objectively analyze all information. 

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Just Follow The Fed Balance Sheet?
It’s easy to cherry-pick time horizons, but that can negatively impact your decision-making. It’s human nature to get scared of a sharp rally and be more comfortable with a stable market or one that is off its highs.
No Recession Warning Now
The manufacturing sector is turning around outside of the weakness catalyzed by the coronavirus and the Boeing 737 Max delay.
Will The Housing Market Strength Last?
The housing market is quickly becoming one of the hottest areas of the economy. Homebuilders were helped by the warm weather in December and January, while buyers love the low mortgage rates.
3 Tail Risks That Could Shock The Market
The stock market has fat tails. Returns aren’t normally distributed. Events such as the crash of 1987 have occurred even though the normal curve says they are almost impossible.
Is Rising Stock Market Masking Inequality?
Consumer sentiment was the 2nd highest of this expansion in February. Most consumers think stocks will rise, but investors are only modestly more bullish than average.
We Could See Below 2% Q1 GDP Growth
The net result of the retail sales and industrial reports is falling Q1 GDP growth estimates.
Real Wage Growth & Election Risk
Higher inflation won’t cause the Fed to hike rates. It is more likely to cut them because core PCE inflation is below 2%. Real wage growth fell, but consumers are still confident.
Small Businesses Expect Big Increase In Real Sales
The coronavirus has done extreme damage to Chinese economic activity in Q1 as it flirts with the possibility of negative GDP growth.
We Will Never Reach Full Employment?
Hiring was solid in December. Don’t worry about the decline in job openings. They were too high in 2018 and are just normalizing.
Consumers Had The Widest Financial Improvement In At Least 44 Years
Q4 earnings season has been good for the most part.
Big Negative Benchmark Revision
Job creation from April 2018 to March 2019 was revised lower by 514,000. This was the biggest downgrade in payrolls growth since 2009.
The Economy Isn’t The Most Important Issue Facing The Country
Consumers aren’t worried about the economy because the labor market is sound as jobless claims are low. They are helped by low rates; when a household refinances, it gets extra discretionary spending power each month.
Great Economic Data: 2020 Growth Acceleration
The ISM non-manufacturing PMI increased which further supports the narrative that economic growth in 2020 will increase from 2019. The ADP report was fantastic. The bad news is the BLS report will probably show lower job creation.
Is The Virus Already Priced In By Stocks?
The coronavirus looks to be winding down, but the impact on the Chinese economy is only just starting to be reported. That’s not to say Chinese stocks will fall after the data comes out.
Manufacturing PMIs Converge & Q4 Earnings Season Review
The manufacturing sector is probably turning around which works perfectly with the market’s thesis that economic growth will turnaround in 2020.
Everything Seems Healthy On The Surface
In December, the savings rate fell from 7.8% to 7.6% which is the lowest level since July.
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