Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 36
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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"Brexit" Does Not Change The US Economic Picture
'Brexit' does not change basic economics. There has been a recovery underway globally and this will continue. Every country is connected through global trade.
S&P 500 Intrinsic Value Index Shows No Excess Valuation
The long-term perspective reveals that SP500 Index has grown ~6.1% in line with long-term earnings. Value Investors perform contextual analysis to determine at what price they find long-term value in markets.
Market’s Reaction To 'Brexit' Ignores US Economy’s Fundamentals
High fear of financial collapse! Major investors saying "Get out!", 'Brexit' forecasts dire for European economy! In the US, top investors say Fed has lost control and the economy or something will spiral out of control.
Was There Ever A “Glut”?
U.S. production is down by just over 0.8mil BBL/Day from July 2015 9.604mil BBL/Day. But, U.S. has raised imports to continue to build inventory for refinery operations.
Priceless… From Glut To Shortage
Gotta love it….as I’ve said before oil is the only thing I know of that can go from glut to shortage in the blink of an eye.
Media Misleads On Consumer Debt
Consumer credit outstanding as a % of the Nominal Private Economy is far lower at 73% Oct 2015 than the peak of 100.7% Jan 2009.
Is Productivity Really That Bad?
The major issue is people do not use Real GDP and they do not correct it for government spending. Inflation has been much higher in the past and this makes it appear that the current economy is slow when wages & prices are not adjusted for inflation.
Oil Price Vs US Dollar…."Chicken Or The Egg?"
Today’s pools of capital are seeking gains within the day-by-day trading frenzy. The least little shift is taken as the possibility of a new trend and capital shifts in anticipation.
Economic Trends Still Positive
A flurry of economic measures indicate that the US economy continues to expand even with the Fed placing additional roadblocks to Single-Family Home sector. My positive outlook remains decidedly contrarian to consensus.
The Real Private Economy Growing ~3%
The Real Private Economy is the Real GDP minus Government Expenditure & Investment. When viewed long term with either a mathematical regression line or a line drawn with my experiential judgement, the Real Private Economy Growth looks fine.
The Dollar & International Equities
This is a good time to review the action of the US$ on International Equities for US investors. Recent notes have focused on the correlation of oil and the Trade Weighted US$ Index Major Currencies.
Housing Recovery On Track, More Upside Ahead
Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 764,000; this is 9.2 percent (±10.3%)* below the revised February figure of 841,000.
IEA “Glut” Predictions Already Being Cut Dramatically…Only 2 Months Later
I have been of the opinion that the so called ‘Oil Glut’ was within 1.5% of consumption and that 1yr’s growth of consumption of 1.5%-1.7% would eliminate the excess. I have always thought the panic was over-done.
Houston Housing Market March Report: Median Price Up (To All Time High), YTD Sales UP
Despite continued strains in the oil patch, the Houston real estate market demonstrated more sustainable conditions in March, with positive sales among mid-range homes and a growing supply of homes from which buyers can choose.
Actually, The Private Economy Is Doing Just Fine
Current US economy is alive and even with an underperforming housing market due to Fed lending restrictions performing decently.
S&P Intrinsic Value Rises To 2,048
One can see in the employment trend that one of the most fundamental measures of the direction of economic activity ignored February’s swoon. This is how to separate out false market psychology fears of recession vs ones driven by economic activity.
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