The unemployment rate and the way it is calculated is much different than how it was calculated in the past making direct comparison misleading. That is why they manipulated it. Looking at it through total employment is better and shows excess labor preventing widespread inflation, but that too has problems. There are more older people today making this number larger than it is in the past.

Thus you begin to see the problem of statistical calculations. If the subject is always changing and the methods of calculation are always changing, then how reliable are these tools let along assumptions you get from them? Sadly the answer tend to be "not very reliable". But they do often make for some lighthearted reading. Just don't take them for full face value or you will end up messing up your portfolio regularly for no reason.

Amazon is not alone in America's move towards big discounted business, Walmart, Costco, Target, etc. are also players in this. One can not fight this flow by affecting but one player in this titanic battle of big retailers fighting to eat up business. What can be done is try to lower taxes for small retailers so they can compete a little better though.

The market should be skeptical for now. The reason for the weaker rate increase is that there is worry about slower growth which isn't good for the market. If growth moderates I think it will still guide some stocks to rise, especially if they are the cause for inflation such as oil. That said, if there is no inflation and growth doesn't slow substantially then the market will likely rise until it becomes clearly overvalued.

Natural gas is very seasonal so it is no wonder natural gas prices are dropping. If it wasn't it would be a surprise. I don't think this is an economic indicator of anything more than seasonality. Ont thing to note is natural gas is increasingly being supplied to China via Russia and others which the trade war has made the US a loser given we have tons of natural gas as we plunder our oil reserves.

Shale is increasing production, but from here on out the more they pump with higher expenditures to tap more the faster they deplete their existing wells. Actual oil demand is growing at a decent clip globally and soon the US and Saudi Arabia will not be able to keep up with the demand growth unless we get a recession which may be caused yet again due to rising energy costs.

This is the biggest long term recession concern more than anything else. Even monetary policy can't counter it adequately.

I believe inventory has been pretty decent to low in many of the supply chains. This does have a lot about improvements in technology and distribution. Drops in industrial production also don't harbor the end of anything and may be actual signs of an economy that is advancing towards more 2nd word economies where programming, services, branding, technology, medical industries, and invention drive business more than manufacturing.

This applies to china as well. The sooner they get off depending on manufacturing for their economic resiliency the better off they are going to be.

Good article again. I also agree that the unemployment statistic needs a major revision to show us actual and meaningful data. It has been manipulated so badly it serves as no real guide for anything anymore. Total working population numbers are better than the data they are getting. That definitely shows the "hidden" slack in the labor market.

What is really scary about the housing market is not construction, but how dependent it is on rising rental rates and the fact that many areas already can't support the rates they are charging. The main reason rents have become more unaffordable is because increasingly residential homes are being bought out by real estate speculators and funds and often lots of houses sit on the market empty or are used to push up the speculative bubble. Tax breaks for property ownership should be stripped from those buying property not to live in them. The unaffordability in housing is a central point in why the economy can't get a strong foothold for growth anymore.

China is not the only one hurting. These trade war tariff games have gone on too long and is setting in to where their effects are spreading to all economies. This needs to be settled one way or the other soon or else the markets will come unsettled. That said, I am not convinced a market downturn will be as bad for oil as some are thinking it will be. Global instability tends to make oil hoarding by nations more common. That said most global instability in the past has been Middle East related.

The simple fact is the US is shooting itself in the foot in the oil market and the inventory buildup has been mainly centered in the US where its oil is not being consumed as the small oil plays keep dumping at a loss to keep from defaulting. This is not a global issue more than a domestic issue. Most global refineries are not geared for the oil being pulled up from fracking.

A down week always looks bad after up weeks, however, it is already past. I think the negative outlook after this is overplayed. The job reading is always adjusted and the trend is more important. In all, total jobless rates rates are a bigger issue and has been gradually rising. Global outlook has been weak for some time.

What really matters is is a China deal going to happen or not. If so, the market will hold up as things look better. If not, then the market is too high and the semi selloff will resume. Charting won't tell you which way this will go no matter how you do the charting.