Monica Kingsley | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Trader & Market Analyst
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Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020. Trade calls and writing are her cup of tea as much as a unique combination of macro, intermarket and technicals applied with in-depth experience. Having been at the markets when Great Recession ...more

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Stagflation Embrace
The S&P 500 didn't look back following the underwhelming NFPs and the stark tech leadership coupled with meaningful enough retreat in yields provide for an inflection point in equities. Junk corporate bonds and Treasuries support more gains.
Mixed Bag Proposition
S&P 500 didn‘t continue with the dump phase after Powell‘s conference, and also ignored data pointing to tight labor market and persisting inflation pressures.
Upswing Rejection
S&P 500 withstood strong ADP employment change, overlooking soft landing incompatibility and focusing on the no stagflation angle as that was what helped sink stocks
What The Heck Just Happened
Today‘s detailed analysis across all asset classes incl. lengthy intraday channel summary will be reserved for paying clients – that important was what we experienced yesterday, the whys and hows.
FOMC Preps
S&P 500 had a relatively uneventful session, but still managed to close up on improving market breadth – all without XLF taking part.
How Long Risk-On?
While XLF​​​​​​​ disappointed Friday, it‘s doing really OK considering the rising rates – when it starts to rise, that would be a first confirmation of higher stock prices ahead.
A Pause In The Bounce
Preliminary look at the market charts tells me the selling is not over, but we may still get a push higher first, albeit much weaker than the broadly soft-landing-supportive data of yesterday.
That Oversold Bounce
The current correction is not done even if we get an oversold bounce – that would be purely technical move, and the best market participants can do is to keep checking for signs of short-term bottom being put in.
How About This Bounce?
Bonds though didn‘t clearly follow the downside, meaning the downswing would likely stall today, and the oversold bounce would be more ready to develop in the nearest days.
Failing Bounces
S&P 500 attracted buy the dippers early in the US session, only for the larger factors at play to bring it back down – the reversal following 20y Treasury auction fizzled out before the day was over.
Stabilization Attempts
S&P 500 paused the decline as per yesterday‘s premium analysis, and weak ASML (guidance) helped it back towards the low 5,120s that form the upper border of the range marked on the downside by my 5,080 target talked intraday (ultimately hit).
The Great Turn Called
S&P 500 recovered from fearful Friday selloff in the Asian session, and even managed to spike on hot retail sales (no landing) balanced by slower Empire State manufacturing (soft landing – I was however doubting that move.)
Sea Of Red
Banking earnings didn't impress markets either – higher rates are biting all banks, and XLF took a dive below its own 50-day moving average Friday already. What good is an upleg without financials?
Almost, Almost Disinflationary PPI
S&P 500 couldn‘t break below Wednesday‘s CPI lows in spite of it being reasonable to expect hot PPI in light of prior hot 2024 PPIs.
Hot CPI
S&P 500 didn‘t make even a little head fake on CPI as the figure was indeed too hot, 0.4% MoM, ushering in the long-awaited correction.
Reading Pre-CPI Tape
S&P 500 refused to rally over 5,270, and the sectoral overview of rising XLF and XLRE (reflecting rise in Treasuries) and XLU at expense of XLE, hint at much caution before CPI.
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