Monica Kingsley | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Trader & Market Analyst
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Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020. Trade calls and writing are her cup of tea as much as a unique combination of macro, intermarket and technicals applied with in-depth experience. Having been at the markets when Great Recession ...more

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That Oversold Bounce
The current correction is not done even if we get an oversold bounce – that would be purely technical move, and the best market participants can do is to keep checking for signs of short-term bottom being put in.
How About This Bounce?
Bonds though didn‘t clearly follow the downside, meaning the downswing would likely stall today, and the oversold bounce would be more ready to develop in the nearest days.
Failing Bounces
S&P 500 attracted buy the dippers early in the US session, only for the larger factors at play to bring it back down – the reversal following 20y Treasury auction fizzled out before the day was over.
Stabilization Attempts
S&P 500 paused the decline as per yesterday‘s premium analysis, and weak ASML (guidance) helped it back towards the low 5,120s that form the upper border of the range marked on the downside by my 5,080 target talked intraday (ultimately hit).
The Great Turn Called
S&P 500 recovered from fearful Friday selloff in the Asian session, and even managed to spike on hot retail sales (no landing) balanced by slower Empire State manufacturing (soft landing – I was however doubting that move.)
Sea Of Red
Banking earnings didn't impress markets either – higher rates are biting all banks, and XLF took a dive below its own 50-day moving average Friday already. What good is an upleg without financials?
Almost, Almost Disinflationary PPI
S&P 500 couldn‘t break below Wednesday‘s CPI lows in spite of it being reasonable to expect hot PPI in light of prior hot 2024 PPIs.
Hot CPI
S&P 500 didn‘t make even a little head fake on CPI as the figure was indeed too hot, 0.4% MoM, ushering in the long-awaited correction.
Reading Pre-CPI Tape
S&P 500 refused to rally over 5,270, and the sectoral overview of rising XLF and XLRE (reflecting rise in Treasuries) and XLU at expense of XLE, hint at much caution before CPI.
Trend Change Implications - April 2024
​After a great stock market run, it‘s now up to real assets and the much touted gold, oil and copper that are to shine – with silver slowly joining in alongside miners. New spark? More evidence of inflation not leveling off is all it takes.
Back To Cautious Buying
S&P 500 bears were winning till services PMI, which turned equally much the Nasdaq around too, delivered a very risk-on sectoral showing.
Hot Data Equals Less Cuts
S&P 500 couldn‘t keep sideways on JOLTS coming in line with expectations.
Key Market Adjustment That Most Miss
Some market phases are better for profit generation than others no matter whether you are a trend follower, momentum player, or tops/bottoms picker.
Stocks Meet Fewer Cuts
We aren't yet at the top, but the air is to be getting thinner in the weeks and months ahead, because equities will get more selective, and the degree of earnings and guidance surprises of Q1 won't be repeated.
First Little Ambush
S&P 500 rose late session in expectation of bolstered rate cutting bets via cooler GDP (and unemployment claims), but that didn‘t happen.
Beware Of Consolidation Ahead
S&P 500 rose intraday only to repeat the flush in the power hour, the goods orders data above expectations didn‘t go well with a soft landing.
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