Monica Kingsley | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Trader & Market Analyst
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Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020. Trade calls and writing are her cup of tea as much as a unique combination of macro, intermarket and technicals applied with in-depth experience. Having been at the markets when Great Recession ...more

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Soft PCE Expectations
S&P 500 met pretty contradictory growth and inflation data yesterday, choosing to first slide, do an oversold rally, and finally crater again.
Our Bearish Harvest
S&P 500 downside risks amply spelled out for clients, delivered them huge gains – I was clear about the bearish flag and remembering opex – see yesterday‘s article with intraday channel summary.
SPY Goes Back To Opex
S&P 500 had visible trouble extending Monday‘s gain far, and no rally into key earnings served as warning. The relief rally following very weak opex Friday, seems to have run its course – and downside risks are reappearning again, meaningfully.
SPY Oversold Bounce
In a reversal of uncertainty, S&P 500 repelled one serious intraday downswing, and rose on solid volume and market breadth improvements.
Wild Opex And Three Black Crows
Whoever guides lower or just barely meets expectations, isn't rewarded – and while some domestic oil companies are waking up, there can be no sustained push higher unless tech / financials lead.
Chips Uncertainty
Semiconductors and tech sent the S&P 500 sharply down – chips and China in focus, with ASML earnings failing to convince.
Who Is The Winner Of Rotations?
S&P 500 took time to get going on retail sales above expectations, but the true winner as called for was once again Russell 2000.
That Fear Of Deflation
The S&P 500 went nowhere till PPI – dumping on hot figure, and then the realization of its implications hit...
Crash, Correction Or Rotation
If there was genuine fear of deflation based on that sole mom figure, USD would have risen. As USD rises, yields differential vs. other key currencies does so too. That didn‘t happen.
Ready For CPI Aftermath
Given the level of risks associated with CPI premarket today, fresh longs are a matter of risk-reward preference.
Dovish Not Dovish
S&P 500 was slowly crawling higher premarket again, but turned disappointed over Powell testimony – and Russell 2000 even more. Not that he would bring up rate hikes, but didn‘t commit to rate cuts either.
Who Is Left To Buy Here?
S&P 500 pulled back even less than it did Friday, and consumer inflation expectations didn‘t stand in the cust cutting bets way or the tech rally.
Still A Soft Landing?
Think about where bonds are headed, whether commodities are coming back, and the same applies to Bitcoin following its Friday flush.
The Turnaround
S&P 500 dipped a little after weak ADP employment change and then surged on disastrous services PMI.
Let’s Just Ignore Yields
S&P 500 didn‘t break below the support line of 5,508 even though yields kept biting. Then, Powell wasn‘t hawkish, and a rally within the range testing twice the declining support line shown below first, was what followed.
What A U-Turn
S&P 500 tried a few times to turn the dead cat bounce into a trend change, but without success.
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