Much more, which is why they backtracked. Specifically, it might have gotten Putin killed. The Oligarchs don't want permanently dented credit worthiness - and if Putin did this once he might do it again.
I've seen people not taking the Ukrainian side. A few reasons given: 1) Ukraine is not really democratic and so Russia's invasion is enabling democracy. There's some truth here, but I think the invasion resistance has proven this to really be an internal Ukrainian problem - not one addressed by Russian conquest. 2) Ukrainians are racists/Nazis (not letting black people on a train, the AZOV Brigage). Again, there is some truth here - not that Russians are so anti-Racist. It is kind of irrelevant to the conflict.
3) That X, Y, Z (normally Palestine, Yemen, Syria, Libya etc...) deserved this attention and so Ukraine is unworthy. Basically trying to hijack the sympathy. These conflicts are very different, but those with only one tune tend to want to play only that tune.
Ukraine could have lost the world's sympathy. But the Pianist has done a masterful job of unifying his people and the world. The fact that the Putinists keep trying to insult him as an irrelevant comedian is really hurting them. I think a whole lot of Russians and Belarusians would prefer Zelensky to their own leadership.
Heck, I imagine this probably extends to a lot of other folk as well.
I love how China is a font of unlimited wealth. Russia is actually far healthier financially. Russian government debt to GDB is <18%. China is at >40%.
Then layer in corporate debt and the picture changes. China has something like 150% of GDP in corporate debt. Russia about 13%.
In total, Russia is <30% government and corporate debt to GDP vs 200%.
Yes, China is bigger and so can absorb shocks more readily, but China is not an open checkbook. Like some of their big acquirers they risk an massive national bankruptcy. Open book support of Russia won't help that.
Sanctions almost never bring down a government. Just look at Iraq, Iran or Cuba. But those weren't countries with any sort of effective elections. Putin does rely on broad support and extremely swiftly applied sanctions - like these - can really dent that support. Russians have a history - not so long in the past - of simply stopping when told to do that which they don't support. So do Ukrainians, Czechs and all sorts of people in the Eastern bloc.
There was a 2012 (I think) book about this invasion called Command Authority. It was in the Jack Ryan series. It ended with the oligarchs assassinating Putin because a bogged down Ukrainian invasion (among other things) was becoming too much of a burden on their business and other interests.
Russia will function under sanctions, but they might galvanize tremendous pressure in the face of continued losses in Ukraine.
We really don't want to escalate with Russia. A proxy war is far more effective for Western purposes as it has far less risk of escalating into WWIII. Think of Afghanistan when it was a proxy slowing Soviet ambitions. Or Vietnam limiting American ambitions. A superpower can be very effectively stunted without a head-to-head conflict.
Just the same, we don't want Ukraine attacking targets in Russia. They need to stay in Ukraine and they know it.
Ukraine was a deeply corrupt place with almost no national spirit prior to 2014. Lots of people supported Russian control in the east. Putin created a far stronger Ukrainian identity with the 2014 war. The corruption was still there, though. If Ukraine emerges from this war, they might just have the national spirit necessary to establish a fully functional society with greatly lessened levels of theft. With foreign troops propping up the existing system, the corruption would have been maintained far more effectively - as in Afghanistan or many other places supported by Western money and men.
We might just be witnessing the birth of a far stronger and better nation. We might not be seeing that at all, of course. Time will tell. But a great unifying national project has a way of establishing a future.
In a few weeks, Jews celebrate Purim where Jewish resistance to a genocidal plan resulted in a revivial of the Jewish people that would not otherwise have occurred.
The Ukrainian resistance must be giving pause to China and Iran as well. Taiwan might not be so easy after all. And the Ayatollahs are most afraid of their own citizens getting guns and doing what Ukrainians are doing now.
Yes it would. But at some point you're responsible for the government you work with (as a foreign company) and the government you enable (as a citizen).
The question is now whether NATO will actually stand up for one of its members. If I were Putin I might try chasing 'terrorists' into Poland and seeing what happens.
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Bring Back The Curtain
Much more, which is why they backtracked. Specifically, it might have gotten Putin killed. The Oligarchs don't want permanently dented credit worthiness - and if Putin did this once he might do it again.
The Ukrainian Swan
The link to the excerpt (which is good fun) is here: Growing up with an Economist
Bring Back The Curtain
I've seen people not taking the Ukrainian side. A few reasons given:
1) Ukraine is not really democratic and so Russia's invasion is enabling democracy. There's some truth here, but I think the invasion resistance has proven this to really be an internal Ukrainian problem - not one addressed by Russian conquest.
2) Ukrainians are racists/Nazis (not letting black people on a train, the AZOV Brigage). Again, there is some truth here - not that Russians are so anti-Racist. It is kind of irrelevant to the conflict.
3) That X, Y, Z (normally Palestine, Yemen, Syria, Libya etc...) deserved this attention and so Ukraine is unworthy. Basically trying to hijack the sympathy. These conflicts are very different, but those with only one tune tend to want to play only that tune.
Ukraine could have lost the world's sympathy. But the Pianist has done a masterful job of unifying his people and the world. The fact that the Putinists keep trying to insult him as an irrelevant comedian is really hurting them. I think a whole lot of Russians and Belarusians would prefer Zelensky to their own leadership.
Heck, I imagine this probably extends to a lot of other folk as well.
Bring Back The Curtain
I love how China is a font of unlimited wealth. Russia is actually far healthier financially. Russian government debt to GDB is <18%. China is at >40%.
Then layer in corporate debt and the picture changes. China has something like 150% of GDP in corporate debt. Russia about 13%.
In total, Russia is <30% government and corporate debt to GDP vs 200%.
Yes, China is bigger and so can absorb shocks more readily, but China is not an open checkbook. Like some of their big acquirers they risk an massive national bankruptcy. Open book support of Russia won't help that.
Bring Back The Curtain
30% of trade could vanish overnight. It'll be like coronavirus, but for only one country.
Bring Back The Curtain
Sanctions almost never bring down a government. Just look at Iraq, Iran or Cuba. But those weren't countries with any sort of effective elections. Putin does rely on broad support and extremely swiftly applied sanctions - like these - can really dent that support. Russians have a history - not so long in the past - of simply stopping when told to do that which they don't support. So do Ukrainians, Czechs and all sorts of people in the Eastern bloc.
There was a 2012 (I think) book about this invasion called Command Authority. It was in the Jack Ryan series. It ended with the oligarchs assassinating Putin because a bogged down Ukrainian invasion (among other things) was becoming too much of a burden on their business and other interests.
Russia will function under sanctions, but they might galvanize tremendous pressure in the face of continued losses in Ukraine.
Bring Back The Curtain
We really don't want to escalate with Russia. A proxy war is far more effective for Western purposes as it has far less risk of escalating into WWIII. Think of Afghanistan when it was a proxy slowing Soviet ambitions. Or Vietnam limiting American ambitions. A superpower can be very effectively stunted without a head-to-head conflict.
Just the same, we don't want Ukraine attacking targets in Russia. They need to stay in Ukraine and they know it.
Bring Back The Curtain
No, but strangely Ukraine might be worse off.
Ukraine was a deeply corrupt place with almost no national spirit prior to 2014. Lots of people supported Russian control in the east. Putin created a far stronger Ukrainian identity with the 2014 war. The corruption was still there, though. If Ukraine emerges from this war, they might just have the national spirit necessary to establish a fully functional society with greatly lessened levels of theft. With foreign troops propping up the existing system, the corruption would have been maintained far more effectively - as in Afghanistan or many other places supported by Western money and men.
We might just be witnessing the birth of a far stronger and better nation. We might not be seeing that at all, of course. Time will tell. But a great unifying national project has a way of establishing a future.
In a few weeks, Jews celebrate Purim where Jewish resistance to a genocidal plan resulted in a revivial of the Jewish people that would not otherwise have occurred.
The Ukrainian resistance must be giving pause to China and Iran as well. Taiwan might not be so easy after all. And the Ayatollahs are most afraid of their own citizens getting guns and doing what Ukrainians are doing now.
Bring Back The Curtain
Yes it would. But at some point you're responsible for the government you work with (as a foreign company) and the government you enable (as a citizen).
Bring Back The Curtain
The question is now whether NATO will actually stand up for one of its members. If I were Putin I might try chasing 'terrorists' into Poland and seeing what happens.