Modern market thought reflects often on the so-called Black Swan Event. The totally unexpected reality that turns all expectations upside down. I wrote about something similar in this excerpt from my autobiography (link to story).

We might just be witnessing another Black Swan event. Not the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Not even the Ukrainian resistance. After all, Russia has a long history of invading Ukraine and Ukraine has a long history of resisting.

The Black Swan event is the return of an element modern warfare has generally ignored: weather.

If we rewind a few hundred years, the famous Russian Winter brought Napoleon low. For those into data analysis, it yielded one of the most famous maps of all time.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Since that time, militaries have made tremendous efforts to overcome weather. Vehicles have become more capable. Vision and satellite systems can see through clouds. Logistics systems can deliver fuel and supplies through all but the most aggressive of storms.

But, suddenly, weather matters again. The Ukrainian Spring is having a devastating effect on Putin and the Russian military. If you watch the news, you'll see report after report of Russian columns that are miles or tens of miles long. It begs a simple question: how much more power can a 40-mile column deliver than a 500-foot column? In fact, a long column offers almost no advantages. You want to bring all your firepower to the front and the columns prevent that.

So why are the Russians traveling in long columns?

The answer is simple. Mud. The mud in the Ukrainian Spring is so thick that it can trap even a track-mounted vehicle. Tanks, anti-aircraft systems, fuel trucks, APCs are all being forced down these roads because when they deviate, they get trapped. Because of this, power can't be concentrated at the front. Perhaps almost as critically, a single strike can bring an entire column to a temporary halt.

This ought to remind us of the battle of Thermopylae. The famous fight of the 300. Because the Persians could only pass through a few at a time, 300 dedicated and superior defenders could hold off a reputedly million-man army. At least until the Persians got around the pass.

Helicopters and aircraft can theoretically overcome the Ukrainian Spring. But so long as the Ukrainians can shoot down troop transports, this isn't proving easy or obvious.

A massive army is being funneled into a kill zone. And in an ironic twist of fate, it is weather that is betraying the Russian invaders.

At least for now.

It would all have been very different if they'd attacked in the dead of winter.

So where is the Black Swan? It is simply this: in eras past, or with more rudimentary armies (like those of the Taliban) weather would always be a part of war calculations. Everybody would have factored it in and seen it coming. But we've stopped considering weather as a factor in modern warfare. And that oversight, that totally predictable but utterly unpredictable event, has cost President Putin and the Russian Army dearly.

They may still overwhelm the Ukrainian defenders. They always have in the past. But the cost and the geopolitical implications of the Ukrainian victories have resulted in a shockwave that will impact our world for decades to come.