I didn't say Sweden's was the right path. Multiple times I have said they paid a very heavy price. What I did say was that we can learn from them about community immunity and what they have now achieved (albeit at a high cost).
Seasonality seems to have had little impact. Hot areas that didn't have previous spikes spiked just in the summer. I doubt fall will be any worse than the present.
Before the pandemic, the US spent almost 18% of GDP on healthcare. The economy has since shrunk 8+%. This implies that if healthcare spending remained constant (it hasn't) we'd be spending 19.5% on healthcare. If we keep going and achieve the 33% annualized contraction we'll be looking at 26% of GDP being spent on healthcare.
At what point does out capability for delivering healthcare being to recede due to economic contraction?
At one point the goal of shutdowns was to "eradicate" the virus. When that wasn't possible, we went to "bend the curve" so that the healthcare system had enough capacity. We bent the curve. If we keep trying to push it with overwhelming economic constraints, we'll find that our *healthcare* capacity will drop below what was needed before the pandemic.
"Evidence suggests about 45% of pediatric infections are asymptomatic, the CDC said." What evidence? It could well be, but given how little we know about the statistical prevalence of the virus in the general (untested) population, I'd be surprised if they know this.
This is entirely anecdotal, but at my five-year-old son's kindergarden, a teacher's aide got sick (loss of taste and smell, no other symptoms). There were 15 kids. The main teacher (a woman in her 60s) was also infected, but was fine.
Three other kids were tested - one because his mother worked with elderly people and couldn't return to work until the kid was also cleared, one because the kid had a bit of diarrhea and a third because he had a slight fever. One test (the diarrhea) came back positive.
They didn't test anybody else because that's not the protocol.
My wife was tested two weeks later (at the end of our isolation period), she was negative.
I wonder what percentage of those kids were actually infected. Close quarters, extended time together... Either the infectivity among this group happened to be very low or the level of illness was...
Limited social distancing has led to a collapse of deaths - in Sweden. Initial deaths were high, as I've noted 90% of nursing home cases were never admitted to hospital. And now those rates have collapsed. And the economy would have been fine if the rest of the Western world had lemminged off a cliff.
The stats aren't there for the ultra orthodox community in the Northeastern US, but they too have seen deaths almost totally disappear. And I *know* they are having large weddings (hundreds of people) with people from the entire region attending.
They are still there - and elsewhere. They don't "hold ground" in Syria (they do in Africa). But they are still active. They aren't going anywhere so long as they represent the military forces of a vast community. Iran's ascendancy means they will continue to have support, imo.
On a related topic, I did a new page for my books (josephcox.com) and the City on the Heights goes into a lot of the dynamics of the situation.
There are lots of more promising vaccines. Their 'durability' is the issue. They have to be cheap enough for the undeveloped world or else those populations will continue to have the virus - meaning that developed world populations will continue to be exposed. It has to be strong enough to trigger long-term immunity, which the virus itself doesn't do. And it has to be broad enough to cover a virus that will gradually mutate or else we'll need new vaccines every few months when our immune systems aren't regularly exposed to the latest versions of the bug.
A vaccine could definitely fast-forward us to a Swedish situation, but I doubt it will eliminate the risks.
We are not going to suppress it into non-existence. Won't happen. It is here and unless there is a miracle vaccine here it will stay. So you either limit it or limit its effects. You don't shut down the world forever because of it. Rapid testing at borders can slow its spread by catching lots of cases.
The real value of this, imo, is rapid testing among high-risk populations. If you can protect them then a host of policy options open up.
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Death, Economics And Coronavirus
I didn't say Sweden's was the right path. Multiple times I have said they paid a very heavy price. What I did say was that we can learn from them about community immunity and what they have now achieved (albeit at a high cost).
The Cost Of Our Coronavirus Insanity
Seasonality seems to have had little impact. Hot areas that didn't have previous spikes spiked just in the summer. I doubt fall will be any worse than the present.
Before the pandemic, the US spent almost 18% of GDP on healthcare. The economy has since shrunk 8+%. This implies that if healthcare spending remained constant (it hasn't) we'd be spending 19.5% on healthcare. If we keep going and achieve the 33% annualized contraction we'll be looking at 26% of GDP being spent on healthcare.
At what point does out capability for delivering healthcare being to recede due to economic contraction?
At one point the goal of shutdowns was to "eradicate" the virus. When that wasn't possible, we went to "bend the curve" so that the healthcare system had enough capacity. We bent the curve. If we keep trying to push it with overwhelming economic constraints, we'll find that our *healthcare* capacity will drop below what was needed before the pandemic.
Then we'll be in serious trouble.
The Cost Of Our Coronavirus Insanity
I never said no masks.
The Cost Of Our Coronavirus Insanity
Crunch all you want... we'll make more!
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
"Evidence suggests about 45% of pediatric infections are asymptomatic, the CDC said." What evidence? It could well be, but given how little we know about the statistical prevalence of the virus in the general (untested) population, I'd be surprised if they know this.
This is entirely anecdotal, but at my five-year-old son's kindergarden, a teacher's aide got sick (loss of taste and smell, no other symptoms). There were 15 kids. The main teacher (a woman in her 60s) was also infected, but was fine.
Three other kids were tested - one because his mother worked with elderly people and couldn't return to work until the kid was also cleared, one because the kid had a bit of diarrhea and a third because he had a slight fever. One test (the diarrhea) came back positive.
They didn't test anybody else because that's not the protocol.
My wife was tested two weeks later (at the end of our isolation period), she was negative.
I wonder what percentage of those kids were actually infected. Close quarters, extended time together... Either the infectivity among this group happened to be very low or the level of illness was...
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
Limited social distancing has led to a collapse of deaths - in Sweden. Initial deaths were high, as I've noted 90% of nursing home cases were never admitted to hospital. And now those rates have collapsed. And the economy would have been fine if the rest of the Western world had lemminged off a cliff.
The stats aren't there for the ultra orthodox community in the Northeastern US, but they too have seen deaths almost totally disappear. And I *know* they are having large weddings (hundreds of people) with people from the entire region attending.
www.jpost.com/.../could-brooklyns-hasidic-jews-have-herd-immunity-634393
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
Just curious: are you a hunter from Texas or do you hunt Texans?
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
They are still there - and elsewhere. They don't "hold ground" in Syria (they do in Africa). But they are still active. They aren't going anywhere so long as they represent the military forces of a vast community. Iran's ascendancy means they will continue to have support, imo.
On a related topic, I did a new page for my books (josephcox.com) and the City on the Heights goes into a lot of the dynamics of the situation.
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
There are lots of more promising vaccines. Their 'durability' is the issue. They have to be cheap enough for the undeveloped world or else those populations will continue to have the virus - meaning that developed world populations will continue to be exposed. It has to be strong enough to trigger long-term immunity, which the virus itself doesn't do. And it has to be broad enough to cover a virus that will gradually mutate or else we'll need new vaccines every few months when our immune systems aren't regularly exposed to the latest versions of the bug.
A vaccine could definitely fast-forward us to a Swedish situation, but I doubt it will eliminate the risks.
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
We are not going to suppress it into non-existence. Won't happen. It is here and unless there is a miracle vaccine here it will stay. So you either limit it or limit its effects. You don't shut down the world forever because of it. Rapid testing at borders can slow its spread by catching lots of cases.
The real value of this, imo, is rapid testing among high-risk populations. If you can protect them then a host of policy options open up.