Okay. The virus is *killing* very few people in Sweden. And they have almost no mandated measures. To achieve that, they need some kind of community immunity. Community immunity doesn't mean there isn't a virus - it remains. It means the virus' ability to kill people is significantly curtailed because people have been exposed recently enough that they aren't going to get killed by it.
Sweden had a terrible death rate. It doesn't anymore.
Why compare to their neighbors? Compare with a value of 0. Sweden's death rate over the last 7 days is 0.28/million. That is the highest among their neighbors. In a city of 10 million, it represents 3 deaths a day.
In a country of 330 million (the US), it represents 92 deaths a day.
Did you know 38,800 people died in car accidents last year in the US. That is 106 deaths/day.
We could shut down our economy and stop many of those automobile deaths - and the countless other injuries from car accidents.
But we don't.
We balance our needs - improving car safety (in 1970 car deaths/million were 2.5X what they are now) but getting on with our lives.
Sweden can do the same with Corona - getting better at treatment even as deaths continue to drop.
Corona *was* far more dangerous than this for Sweden. Now, it isn't.
They have community immunity. If they were to shut down, they'd probably lose it.
Others can achieve it at a far lower cost - and then we can get on with the world.
Hidden trade is nowhere near as beneficial as open-ended trade. And the UAE are real leaders in the Gulf. They won't bring Qatar or Kuwait on - but Oman, Bahrain and even Saudi Arabia are possible.
There is no question Israel still has enemies - but in an environment where friendships seem to be in a confused state (see Exhibits A-D: US Democratic Party, Turkey, Russia, Jordan) it doesn't hurt to add a new one.
I'd love to say the battle lines are being defined - with Arab Sunnis increasingly on Israel's side vs. Iranian and Shia forces. It'd be nice to have the Sunni-Israeli relationship clarified further.
But you try to unravel who is really fighting for what Syria. Endangered minorities vs. oppressed Sunni majority is pretty clear. Things become cloudier when you add in Iran, Russia, Israel, Lebanese Shia, the US and Turkey.
Like Spain in the 30s, I fear it is a practice run for all sorts of parties.
You've got to be curious what Russia, Turkey and Iran really intend to do next.
There are morbidity effects. As per my last piece we should assess the cost - as of now - of open spread (with some limitation on doses through masking and elderly isolation). And in places where the remaining cost is not much higher we should allow it. Because if we shut it down, we'll lose hard-earned immunity and go back to square one.
With places that have a lot of mortality (and morbidity) necessary to achieve community immunity they should do what they can to reset the clock and they should be first in the queue for when vaccines becomes available.
I actually think we can get past it - we just need to let it circulate. Sweden is the proof. They have almost no deaths at this point despite not massive social distancing. They aren't being reinfected with a deadly virus because people have built up immunity. People are still dying, but much much less than before.
We have learned how to significantly reduce the death rate. Vitamin D, dexomethasone, plasma donations etc... are all helping. I agree that we ought to be assessing the costs of our shutdowns in light of our much improved death rates and the possibility of community immunity.
@[Leslie Miriam](user:28430) @[Barry Glassman](user:91901) I believe the antibody tests used by government agencies in NY, Florida, Sweden, Israel and elsewhere were fairly reliable. The T-Cell tests were run on all sorts of blood samples and I suppose they are both more expensive and fairly reliable. But I don't know. You don't need a huge number of tests to have a reasonably reliable estimate of immunity. That is why these are statistical, not universal, tests.
Immunity not lasting long is *exactly* the point. I would imagine you don't go from 100% immunity to 0% overnight. There is probably a progression from 90% to something far less. But if you are reexposed wouldn't your immune system have its antibodies cranked back up. After all, it just dealt with another assault. That is why vaccines have boosters.
"After initial immunization, a booster injection or booster dose is a re-exposure to the immunizing antigen. It is intended to increase immunity against that antigen back to protective levels, after memory against that antigen has declined through time." - Wikipedia
*Repeated* exposure is key to establishing ongoing immunity. If you totally shut the virus off, you'll go back to square one and a situation where nobody has any resistance.
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Death, Economics And Coronavirus
Okay. The virus is *killing* very few people in Sweden. And they have almost no mandated measures. To achieve that, they need some kind of community immunity. Community immunity doesn't mean there isn't a virus - it remains. It means the virus' ability to kill people is significantly curtailed because people have been exposed recently enough that they aren't going to get killed by it.
Sweden had a terrible death rate. It doesn't anymore.
Why compare to their neighbors? Compare with a value of 0. Sweden's death rate over the last 7 days is 0.28/million. That is the highest among their neighbors. In a city of 10 million, it represents 3 deaths a day.
In a country of 330 million (the US), it represents 92 deaths a day.
Did you know 38,800 people died in car accidents last year in the US. That is 106 deaths/day.
We could shut down our economy and stop many of those automobile deaths - and the countless other injuries from car accidents.
But we don't.
We balance our needs - improving car safety (in 1970 car deaths/million were 2.5X what they are now) but getting on with our lives.
Sweden can do the same with Corona - getting better at treatment even as deaths continue to drop.
Corona *was* far more dangerous than this for Sweden. Now, it isn't.
They have community immunity. If they were to shut down, they'd probably lose it.
Others can achieve it at a far lower cost - and then we can get on with the world.
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
Depends on how you define the start :) It is still going on. ISIS is weaker than before, but there are many many parties now.
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
By the by, my best book (to date) was about the war in Syria.
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
Hidden trade is nowhere near as beneficial as open-ended trade. And the UAE are real leaders in the Gulf. They won't bring Qatar or Kuwait on - but Oman, Bahrain and even Saudi Arabia are possible.
There is no question Israel still has enemies - but in an environment where friendships seem to be in a confused state (see Exhibits A-D: US Democratic Party, Turkey, Russia, Jordan) it doesn't hurt to add a new one.
I'd love to say the battle lines are being defined - with Arab Sunnis increasingly on Israel's side vs. Iranian and Shia forces. It'd be nice to have the Sunni-Israeli relationship clarified further.
But you try to unravel who is really fighting for what Syria. Endangered minorities vs. oppressed Sunni majority is pretty clear. Things become cloudier when you add in Iran, Russia, Israel, Lebanese Shia, the US and Turkey.
Like Spain in the 30s, I fear it is a practice run for all sorts of parties.
You've got to be curious what Russia, Turkey and Iran really intend to do next.
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
I think it is great - both sides should benefit tremendously.
Will it boost Trump? I have no idea.
We Need To Change Our COVID-19 Strategy
There are morbidity effects. As per my last piece we should assess the cost - as of now - of open spread (with some limitation on doses through masking and elderly isolation). And in places where the remaining cost is not much higher we should allow it. Because if we shut it down, we'll lose hard-earned immunity and go back to square one.
With places that have a lot of mortality (and morbidity) necessary to achieve community immunity they should do what they can to reset the clock and they should be first in the queue for when vaccines becomes available.
We Need To Change Our COVID-19 Strategy
I actually think we can get past it - we just need to let it circulate. Sweden is the proof. They have almost no deaths at this point despite not massive social distancing. They aren't being reinfected with a deadly virus because people have built up immunity. People are still dying, but much much less than before.
We have learned how to significantly reduce the death rate. Vitamin D, dexomethasone, plasma donations etc... are all helping. I agree that we ought to be assessing the costs of our shutdowns in light of our much improved death rates and the possibility of community immunity.
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
It can never be truly successful. You just knock things back a whole lot more than you otherwise would.
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
Sweden seems to have it.no mandated measures and almost no virus.
Death, Economics And Coronavirus
@[Leslie Miriam](user:28430) @[Barry Glassman](user:91901) I believe the antibody tests used by government agencies in NY, Florida, Sweden, Israel and elsewhere were fairly reliable. The T-Cell tests were run on all sorts of blood samples and I suppose they are both more expensive and fairly reliable. But I don't know. You don't need a huge number of tests to have a reasonably reliable estimate of immunity. That is why these are statistical, not universal, tests.
Immunity not lasting long is *exactly* the point. I would imagine you don't go from 100% immunity to 0% overnight. There is probably a progression from 90% to something far less. But if you are reexposed wouldn't your immune system have its antibodies cranked back up. After all, it just dealt with another assault. That is why vaccines have boosters.
"After initial immunization, a booster injection or booster dose is a re-exposure to the immunizing antigen. It is intended to increase immunity against that antigen back to protective levels, after memory against that antigen has declined through time." - Wikipedia
*Repeated* exposure is key to establishing ongoing immunity. If you totally shut the virus off, you'll go back to square one and a situation where nobody has any resistance.