Dr. Duru - Comments
Sole Proprietor, Ahan Analytics, LLC
Dr. Duru Ahanotu is a graduate of Stanford University with over twenty-five years of experience doing analytic modeling, executing pricing strategies through price optimization, and implementing, developing, and selling enterprise software. He adds to this industry experience another five ...more
Latest Comments
T2108 Update – From The Edge Of A Breakout To The Ledge Of A Breakdown
9 years ago

What is the pattern you have observed to suggest contrarianism is the way to go with the T2108 Update?

In this article: CAT, SSO, UVXY, QQQ, AAPL, SPY, SPX, VIX
T2108 Update – Another Oversold Period Ends As Volatility Continues Pre-Fed Decline
9 years ago

The September rate wrangling is so, so....last flash crash! ;)

In this article: SVXY
Whatever Happened To Optimism ?
9 years ago

Thanks for the sunshine. :) I will quibble just a bit with the fund flow info. At the recent lows, Pisani on CNBC reported a massive surge in redemption orders at the close. THAT could have been the purge of sellers. But time will tell. I also keep seeing headlines about big fund flows OUT of ETFs and mutual funds. But I think outflows supports your contrarian thesis better than inflows. I think it is just human nature to want to chase stocks higher rather than buy them at a discount.

The World Agricultural Outlook Grinds The Teucrium Corn ETF To An All-Time Low
9 years ago

It is a tough space if you are not riding a trend. Currently, too many trends are downward but I wouldn't recommend shorting these ETFs or ETNs to do so. Futures are the best place for trading efficiency, but I have never dared go there. :)

So, my current compromise for CORN: 1) hold a core position in the expectation that an upward trend will get sustained someday soon that recaptures what I think is the long-term bullish outlook, 2) look for entries for short-term trades as I wrote about earlier.

Thanks for reading!

In this article: CORN
Deducing The Crash In Oil: How Would Sherlock Holmes Drill Beneath The Headlines?
9 years ago

I think the analysis should also take into account what happens to the savings consumers gather from the cheaper gasoline and other petroleum-based products. Even if they are not spending the money on other goods, they are likely using it to pay down debt. That alone can relieve a lot of stress for a lot of non-oil families. Let's see which effect is the bigger. I have an article coming out soon summarizing the amazing results of LGI Homes whose base is in Texas and saw crazy sales numbers in Houston.

The increase in rig count in Canada may not be so good if all it does is add supply to an over-supplied situation.

I am also surprised you didn't weave in the demand side. Could it be that the persistent weakness in oil prices is also revealing how weak the global economy is in general, in particular China? I believe oil demand in the U.S. is already on a secular decline...

But overall, I loved the article as usual. Great narration weaving Sherlock in there!

And now imagine what is going through the collective mind of the Federal Reserve. I think it would be unprecedented to start tightening policy in the face of such a collapse in prices in this large a part of the economy!

In this article: OIL, XOM, CVX
The Canadian Dollar Slips On An Oil-Slicked November GDP Report
9 years ago

This is actually an old article that TalkMarkets accidentally republished from my site. But yes, the entire commodity complex is in collapse mode now!

In this article: FXC
Millennial Regret
9 years ago

Great article! I love the flourish and sentimental overtones. It sounds like true American dream. I think it is also a good story to remind us of the value of *ownership* in an era where the sentimentality of attachment, bond, and commitment are being casually tossed about and overboard. I particularly loved the references that remind us how inflation have really bitten us in ways that go unmeasured: very few families can afford to get by on just one paycheck, no one could ever hope to pay off a mortgage in a matter of a few years, etc, etc...!

I will soon read the links you posted that give some hope on the desire for home ownership. I also summarized findings from a related Fed survey here: seekingalpha.com/.../3230496-using-the-feds-report-on-economic-well-being-to-gauge-prospects-for-the-housing-market

-- Dr. Duru

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