Dr. Duru - Comments
Sole Proprietor, Ahan Analytics, LLC
Dr. Duru Ahanotu is a graduate of Stanford University with over twenty-five years of experience doing analytic modeling, executing pricing strategies through price optimization, and implementing, developing, and selling enterprise software. He adds to this industry experience another five ...more
Latest Comments
The Canadian Dollar’s Rapid Devaluation: A Precarious Predicament For The Bank Of Canada
8 years ago

Setting rates by inflation expectations is a well-formed theory in monetary policy now. I think it was born out of the uncontrolled inflation of the 70s. It has not been tested much because inflation since then has been on a secular downtrend in developed economies. This is the theory that partly allowed the Fed to finally deliver a rate hike even though current inflation is comotose. The Banks like to talk about getting ahead of these expectations. So, theoretically, if they are executing, we will never see inflation expectations get out of hand.

Regardless, when it comes to trading, theory matters much less than the market's actual responses to drivers. So far, the market's response is consistent with a receding belief in imminent rate cuts. And more rate cuts seem highly unlikely given the Bank's commentary. I will be interested to see how the Bank's thread continues to evolve.

The Canadian Dollar’s Rapid Devaluation: A Precarious Predicament For The Bank Of Canada
8 years ago

Are you talking about Canada's housing bubble? At least in the big cities. The Bank has consistently pointed out the rising imbalances due to rising debt. The Bank keeps talking like it has this rise under control. Time will tell.

The Canadian Dollar’s Rapid Devaluation: A Precarious Predicament For The Bank Of Canada
8 years ago

It is a nuanced concern that is looking out to a chained set of events. Note that Poloz is clear in saying there is no inflation problem at the moment. BUT, the the BOC is worried that if the Canadian dollar depreciates too fast, the resulting contribution to inflation could happen so fast that it convinces people to increase their inflation expectations past the comfort zone. Finally, those increased expectations will start to feed into actual inflation. In other words, there is nothing for the BOC to work against, but this potential is enough to constrain monetary policy given more and more easing will likely contribute to this breakneck pace of devaluation.

T2108 Update – A Convergence Of Indicators May Signal A Firming Market
8 years ago

You know me. I take the market one step at a time. Let's see how "healthy" the breakout is if we get it.

In this article: WMT, QQQ, BBBY, SPY, UUP, VIX
T2108 Update – The S&P 500 Makes A Reverse Power Move
8 years ago

That's an excellent bullet point summary!

I am also noting that TalkMarkets is not including the background info on what the T2108 indicator is all about. Interested readers can find the info on any of the T2108 Update posts on my own blog: http://drduru.com/onetwentytwo/tag/t2108/

T2108 Upate – A Deceptively Calm Market Day
8 years ago

Well, thanks for reading!

T2108 Update – From The Edge Of A Breakout To The Ledge Of A Breakdown
8 years ago

What is the pattern you have observed to suggest contrarianism is the way to go with the T2108 Update?

In this article: CAT, SSO, UVXY, QQQ, AAPL, SPY, SPX, VIX
T2108 Update – Another Oversold Period Ends As Volatility Continues Pre-Fed Decline
8 years ago

The September rate wrangling is so, so....last flash crash! ;)

In this article: SVXY
Whatever Happened To Optimism ?
8 years ago

Thanks for the sunshine. :) I will quibble just a bit with the fund flow info. At the recent lows, Pisani on CNBC reported a massive surge in redemption orders at the close. THAT could have been the purge of sellers. But time will tell. I also keep seeing headlines about big fund flows OUT of ETFs and mutual funds. But I think outflows supports your contrarian thesis better than inflows. I think it is just human nature to want to chase stocks higher rather than buy them at a discount.

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