Andre Gratian | TalkMarkets | Page 11
Owner at Market Turning Points
When I was a stock broker years ago, a friend introduced me to technical analysis of the market and it is not an exaggeration to say that I fell in love with this approach! Ever since then, it has become an increasingly important part of mylife, and I frequently spend 8 or more hours per day in ...more

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Only Minor Top Ahead
We are approaching the full count from the 2500 re-accumulation level, but it is likely that we will get there through a series of fits and starts indirectly. The market itself that requires that projection targets be reached in a structured manner.
Bulls Still In Charge
In this super-bullish short-term atmosphere, the fear and greed index made a new “extreme greed” all-time high of 95 (max. 100), telling us that the market is as short-term overbought as it ever gets.
A Slightly Higher Count
Instead of starting a sizable correction after reaching the 2500 projection, SPX created another re-consolidation pattern and has now broken out of it on the upside. The projection target can be raised to 2530-40 before we undertake that correction.
Forming A Reluctant Top
As anticipated, SPX did not stop precisely at 2500, but pushed higher to almost 2509 before reversing. That reversal probably means that we have made a top, but what kind of a top is still undecided.
SPX 2500 … At Last
Now that the Irma-induced delay of the rally is behind us, SPX was allowed to reach its long-standing 2500 target. But will it stop there and reverse to start its descent into October/November, or will it move higher, first?
Irma Delays Uptrend
GDX had a good rally once it got past 23.00, but has reached resistance and should pull back into its cycle lows (which could wait until mid-month to occur) before extending its gains.
6 Week Cycle Bottoming Early Next Week
The closing action on Friday suggested that the bottoming action had already started, and since the index waited until it printed 2480 to start correcting, it is going to make our analysis less complicated.
Uptrend Resumption Or Rally Fizzle?
There is no conclusive sign that this rally is over. Most of the short-term indicators are still biased upwardly, and until the S&P breaks below the 2430 level, the trend is still up.
Correction In Full Swing?
After the 20-wk cycle made its low, a little ahead of schedule, there was a rip-roaring rally at the beginning of last week which undoubtedly caused many to doubt that something serious had started and that the market was ready for another new high.
Intermediate Correction Underway
SPX found its limit at 2491, and reversed immediately, making it quite clear that this would be its final high (for a while).
Has Time Run Out?
It's no wonder the SPX is having trouble reaching its ideal final target of about 2500. We could argue last week was its last chance to do so, and its refusal to go above 2480 can be seen as validation for 2484 being the final high of this rally.
Final Minor Correction?
While some saw last week’s rapid decline of 24 points in SPX as a beginning of a larger correction, it is and it isn't. It is part of a larger correction in the sense that it appears incomplete and needs to retrace to a lower low before completion.
Market Still On Track
Last week’s new high brought us closer to our projection and, as long as we do not see contradictory patterns, another high; and perhaps two more can be expected. Whether it’s one or two may depend on next week’s action.
More To Go
SPX has met the expectations outlined in the last letter and more bullish action is expected since last week’s action has all the markings of an impulse wave which appears to be on target to reach our 2500 projection.
Still Bullish Bias
SPX still points a little higher. Granted, we do not have a confirmed short-term reversal that puts us back into an uptrend, yet.
Is This The Top?
SPX is already at or near the low of a near-term correction and will need to make another new high between 2480-2500 before starting an intermediate correction, or 2) the intermediate correction has already started.
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