Andre Gratian | TalkMarkets | Page 17
Owner at Market Turning Points
When I was a stock broker years ago, a friend introduced me to technical analysis of the market and it is not an exaggeration to say that I fell in love with this approach! Ever since then, it has become an increasingly important part of mylife, and I frequently spend 8 or more hours per day in ...more

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A Failed Rally
Whether or not we are in a bear market is something that the future will tell us, but it’s starting to act like one and, based on the degree of distribution that took place on the SPX P&F chart between March and August of this year.
Are We In A Bear Market?
Even if we are not yet in a bear market and we start another uptrend from here, we are in the last phase of the bull market which will come to an end when this phase is completed whether or not we make a new high in the SPX​.
A Wild Week For The Market
In spite of the sharp reversal on Friday, it is possible that SPX has started a decline of intermediate nature although, until confirmed, a new high is still possible. If so, this should become apparent over the next couple of weeks.
A Week Of Consolidation
For the past five days, SPX has had daily closes within a nine-point range. Perhaps it is because of the Thanksgiving holiday, or perhaps it is because it is being sold at a resistance level.
Rally Losing Momentum
Last Monday SPX started to rally from the very opening, continued to move up duringthe whole week, and closed on Friday about 70 points higher.
Looking For A (Temporary?) Low
In the past week, the market correction has greatly accelerated. It is not yet time to dismiss the present rally’s capability to make a new bull market high.
Current Position Of The Market - 11/8/2015
After reaching a new rally high of 2116.48 on Tuesday, SPX declined 33 points before finding support at the 2084 level. A Friday close of 2099 may indicate that the correction is over.
Current Position Of The Market - 11/1/2015
Whether SPX reverses now or a couple of days from now should not make that much difference since there are too many good reasons why this is where a correction should start, including the position of the daily indicators.
First Tier Resistance Breached: Key Level Exceeded
Now that we have overcome the lower resistance band, we should expect higher prices until such time as the typical warnings that we have come to the end of the road begin to appear.
Approaching The "Extreme" Projection (Negative Divergences)
Projections always entail a possibility that the price will either fall short of the exact count, or go a little higher. In this case, there is a confirming count which was reestablished at the 1990 level and it could go just a little higher.
Initial Projection Reached
What, exactly is the significance of all this strength? We should find out over the next few days or weeks.
Current Position Of The Market
Unless some radical changes take place in the market trend, this practically ensures that we have started a bear market or, at least, a lengthy intermediate correction.
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