Andre Gratian | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Owner at Market Turning Points
When I was a stock broker years ago, a friend introduced me to technical analysis of the market and it is not an exaggeration to say that I fell in love with this approach! Ever since then, it has become an increasingly important part of mylife, and I frequently spend 8 or more hours per day in ...more

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Minor Cycle Correcting
The hourly SPX chart substantiated the warning issued by the daily chart indicators. This signaled that a consolidation lay ahead; but by Tuesday’s close, it became apparent that we had already struck the high point of the current short-term cycle.
The Bullish Trend Continues - Sunday, Nov. 7
Boosted by reports that were taken as bullish for the market by traders, SPX continued the strong intermediate uptrend which originated in early October. Higher prices may be likely before a meaningful correction can take hold.
Nearing Short-Term High
After a month-long correction, the SPX rose to the all-time high of 4605 where it closed on Friday. The short-term uptrend had an ideal projection to 4580-90. But after a 35-point re-accumulation pullback, a renewal of buying lifted it to a new high.
New Intermediate Uptrend
Last week’s market action - which has already brought SPX to a slightly higher all-time high - confirmed what had been suggested by the price activity of the previous week: that a new intermediate uptrend had started.
New Intermediate Bottom Forming?
Last week’s strength in SPX -- primarily the result of a strong DJIA while NDX is lagging -- suggests that a deeper correction has been averted at this time, and that the index made a low ahead of the short-term cycle bottom scheduled for Oct. 22.
The Intermediate Correction Continues
SPX should now be entering the distribution phase of its current short-term cycle. With a projection for the next cycle already expected to reach ~4260-30, we should watch for a confirming congestion pattern to form over the next few days.
Has The 4540 Target Identified The Bull Market Top?
After reaching its important 4540 projection, SPX reversed and started a downtrend which should lead to an intermediate correction, at least. However, it is too early to call for an end to the bull market.
Retest Of The High?
SPX showed more weakness in its last short-term correction than it has since the end of last year. This probably indicates that an intermediate top is forming -- especially since the high came at 4546.
Consolidation In The Dow Jones Or The Makings Of A Major Top?
While the SPX and NDX have continued to make new highs, the Dow Jones complex (industrials, Transports, utilities) has been going sideways since May. Is it simply consolidating at the intermediate level, or making a major top? 
SPX Base Projection Reached – End Of The Line?
A close monitoring of the SPX short-term cycle should help us determine when the final high of the uptrend which started in March 2020 has been struck for this index.  But it is possible that the Dow has already made its bull market high.
A Mixed Market - Still
There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into 2021 until major cycles take over, and it ends. 
Drawing Ever Closer To The Final Target?
Can the market continue to move higher and higher? Or will a correction come once the last projection has been met, the last short-term cycle has topped, and the final structure has been completed? I suspect that this is what may take place.
Correction Underway - How Much?
Last week’s price action does not look very impressive, but we can probably conclude that the correction is most likely not over. Our concern is what kind of a longer-term correction we can expect in this very overbought market.
Strong Intermediate Reversal Warning
One of the most reliable ways to determine the future intermediate market trend is by comparing the action of IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) to SPX (S&P 500). So, what is IWM telling us today?
Stock Market Dichotomy
I’m willing to bet that few investors are aware of the pronounced dichotomy which exists between the NDX and the DJIA, with the media continuing to report that “the market made another new high.”
Intermediate Top Reached
In May, indicators alerted us to the first important correction in the uptrend. Now, they are telling us to be cautious by again displaying negative divergence, except that this time what lies ahead is not simply a minor correction in the uptrend.
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