Andre Gratian Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
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When I was a stock broker years ago, a friend introduced me to technical analysis of the market and it is not an exaggeration to say that I fell in love with this approach! Ever since then, it has become an increasingly important part of my life, and I frequently  spend 8 or more hours ... more


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4310 Right Around The Corner
SPX is on its way to an intermediate top which could arrive shortly. We should look for it after the short-term cycle has made its low and after the index has reached the vicinity of 4310.
EC Approaching An Intermediate Peak
There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market that started in 2009. This trend could continue into 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends.
Consolidation Ahead
At the daily level, SPX is showing the deceleration pattern which precedes a minor top. During the past two days, the index crawled to a fractional new high, but each day it failed to retain its daily gain and it pulled back at the end of the day.
Waves Show The S&P 500 Should Be Headed For A New High
The Russell 2000 continues to diverge significantly from the S&P 500 over the intermediate term. Based on previous similar divergences, one should be prepared for an important correction to take place in the S&P. S&P behavior may suggest otherwise.
Is The Correction Complete?
There is evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009, and could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it ends. A move past 4500 is possible before the current bull market makes a final top
Extending Phase Two?
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high today! The Russell 2000 made a new all-time high eight weeks ago!  We know historically this disparity suggests a market correction. There is no reason to believe that it will be any different, this time. 
Market Trends - Looking Ahead!
The intermediate trend, as defined by the weekly SPX chart is still up and weeks away of giving a sell signal.  This is verifiable with the chart pattern itself, which is still in an obvious uptrend.
S&P 500 Indicators Flashing Caution
The Russell 2000 continues to flash a warning by showing significant divergence from the S&P 500. Since it has an excellent track record of alerting us to a reversal in the latter, that warning should not be ignored.
Phase Two Projection Reached
SPX probably completed its second bullish phase on Friday. Evidence of this should become manifest next week. 
Minor Correction Due
There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end. 
Pushing Higher
The S&P 500 index has started its second up-phase from 3723.  This could take it above 4100 before it is ready for more consolidation.  
The Bullish Trend Continues
We are expecting major cycles to make their lows over the next few months. They are expected to bring about a decline which could easily exceed the 40% retracement of the March 2020 decline, but spread over a much longer time-period.
Market Paused In An Uptrend
The Federal Reserve had pushed interest rates to an abnormally low level in March 2020, and this could be a simple adjustment to a more normal level. A continued price decline toward the lower trend line that goes back to 2011 would be a concern.
Is The Uptrend Already Resuming?
After touching 3950, SPX retraced 220 points, found support at short-term highs, and rallied slightly past the former high without consolidating along the way. The question is: did we simply complete a B-wave, or are we ready to move to new highs?
It Is Time For Investors To Be Cautious
It is time to pay attention to the longer-term indicators, which are flashing a warning that we may be coming to the end of the bull market. This is substantiated by the high probability that long-term cycle lows lie directly ahead.
Current Position Of The Market: SPX, Money, Metals
Friday’s action took place in the outer half of the small channel, suggesting that the consolidation may soon come to an end -- probably after the SPX makes another trip to the bottom of the larger red channel. 
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