Andre Gratian Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
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When I was a stock broker years ago, a friend introduced me to technical analysis of the market and it is not an exaggeration to say that I fell in love with this approach! Ever since then, it has become an increasingly important part of my life, and I frequently  spend 8 or more hours ... more


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A Short-Term Top?
The downward pressure of the 45-to-date cycle (80-cal.days) was minimized by the 36-to-date cycle (52-cal.days), which made its low on May 14; but, unless it is inverting, it should have enough left to bring the market down into the end of the week.
An Encroaching Cycle
An “encroaching” cycle (52-day) made its low on May 14, and altered the short-term index structure. This will reduce the future impact of the 80-day cycle to a much less significant decline than it would have been otherwise.
E SPX Rolling Over?
The odds that SPX will continue its countertrend rally beyond 2955 are virtually nil! The best reason for this is that the daily indicators have given a sell signal and are showing no inclination to reverse, even after a hundred-point rally.
EC The Great Disconnect
On Friday May 8, the U.S. Department of Labor released a horrific jobs report. The SPX celebrated by tacking a 49-point advance on top of the 33-point rally that it had registered on Thursday.
Resuming The Major Downtrend?
SPX surpassed its 2930 projection by 20 points before reversing and plunging 134 points over the next two days. The index closed near its low on May 1, suggesting that the decline is probably not over. A cycle low is due in the middle of next week.
End Of Counter Trend Rally
As the IWM and SPX indexes approach the end of their countertrend rally, IWM is increasing its relative weakness. Last week, SPX made a new weekly high, coming a little closer to its ~2930 projection.
Enough Momentum To Keep Going Higher?
The divergent relative strength between the SPX and IWM indexes is glaring, but they both participated in the third week of a countertrend rally from the 3/22 initial bear market low, and there is enough momentum to keep them going a little higher.
Approaching Short-term Low
Both the SPX and IWM indices ended their initial countertrend rallies and are pulling back. For the SPX, it will most likely be a retest of the low while the IWM could make a marginal new low, emphasizing its relative weakness to the SPX.
EC First Countertrend Rally Repelled
The first countertrend rally took SPX to its 200-DMA where it was repelled. IWM did not fare nearly as well and remains with considerable relative weakness to the SPX. There may be some additional trading within the range established this past week.
Has A Countertrend Rally Started?
After a brutal four-week decline during which it lost almost a thousand points, SPX finally found support and had a strong countertrend rally of 232 points which happened all in one day.
Has The S&p 500 Hit Its 20 Week Cycle Low?
The bull market which started in 2009 still shows no sign of having run its course. A count taken on the long term P&F chart gives us a potential target as high as 4080. An intermediate target minimum is 2620 with a potential target of 2360.
Current Pull Back In S&P 500 Is Only A Blip On The Chart
The current 65-point pull-back in the SPX is only a blip on the weekly chart. And it will probably stay that way if this correction is only caused by the bottoming action of the 20-wk cycle.
Looking For Signs Of Negative Divergence Among The Major Indices
The bull market which started in 2009 shows no sign of having run its course. A long count taken on the long term P&F chart gives us a potential target as high as 4080.
Bull Market Shows No Sign Of Having Run Its Course
Long-term trend: The bull market which started in 03/09 shows no sign of having run its course. A rough count taken on the long-term Point & Figure chart gives us a potential target to as high as 4080. P&F does not predict time, only price.
Correction Continues But May End Soon
The correction continues as anticipated and its end may come as early as this week if the two-year cycle makes its low in conjunction with the 80-day cycle.
SPX Shows Potential For Reversal
For the first time since this uptrend started on Sept. 29, SPX​ is showing the potential for a significant reversal. Several cycles bottoming in close proximity tends to have a greater impact than if they did so individually.
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