Andre Gratian | TalkMarkets | Page 12
Owner at Market Turning Points
When I was a stock broker years ago, a friend introduced me to technical analysis of the market and it is not an exaggeration to say that I fell in love with this approach! Ever since then, it has become an increasingly important part of mylife, and I frequently spend 8 or more hours per day in ...more

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Market Running Out Of Steam
Ever since late March, SPX has continued to trade within the second quartile of the blue channel which starts at 1810. After the correction from 2400, two patterns have formed within that trading range.
Higher Highs Still Likely
Although SPX was more affected than the Dow (which closed at a new high on Friday) by the tech correction it, too, is expected to continue its uptrend for a while longer.
Tech Shake Out - Sign Of An Approaching Top?
Signs that we are approaching an important top are becoming more and more evident. The most recent one came on Friday when traders decided that tech stocks had run out of oxygen and instantly brought them down to a lower altitude.
Is The Correction Over?
Last week, SPX re-tested support and moved to new all-time highs. With all indicators showing positive momentum, the correction appears to be over with a new uptrend starting. The latest re-accumulation area gives us a count to about 2500.
A New (Questionable) Uptrend?
It is probable that the new high is an extension of the uptrend which started at 2084, and not a new uptrend. If a short-term top was not reached on Friday, one should be over the next few days at one of the alternate projections mentioned above.
A Volatile C-Wave Underway
The B-wave of the corrective pattern should now be in place and the C-wave underway. What structure it adopts will be revealed next week. Already, a decline of 53 points followed by a .618 retracement suggests that the next move should be lower.
A Shallow Correction?
Last week, most of the following indexes went sideways, except for the the QQQ which, again, made a new high. The oscillators of the other indexes suggest that they are in various stages of a corrective mode. This is consistent with SPX.
B-Wave Still Favored
SPX indicators are telling us that they are not ready to reverse immediately. They all made new highs and will most likely need to show some divergence before they can roll over into a sell signal
Getting To “B”
While QQQ continues on its merry way into the stratosphere, there are signs that the DJIA is beginning to lag SPX.
Is The Bounce Over?
As anticipated, the market was ready for a rally, and SPX obliged with a 32-point bounce which came in three distinct phases and were a display of Fibonacci symmetry. Next week is loaded with potential stimuli for the market to move.
Stock Market Bounce Coming?
SPX may be ready to reverse course with a rally in a downtrend which could retrace a minimum of 50% of the decline from 2378 to 2353 before resuming its downtrend. Should it exceed that level with enough momentum, a move to 2380 would be possible.
Cycle Lows Still Ahead
The market action continues to suggest that we are in a mild corrective pattern although, with the cycle lows still several weeks away, we should see lower prices before the correction is complete.
Cyclical Correction Underway
In spite of last week’s rally, SPX daily indicators are still in a sell mode, and the weekly indicators have turned down but are only correcting and have not given a sell signal at the weekly time frame.
More Correction Ahead
The correction which started from 2400 is now a little over three weeks old, and should soon reach the halfway point of its duration. It is primarily caused by a group of intermediate cycles, with the last one bottoming in mid-May.
Market Correction Continues
SPX has been correcting ever since it reached its 2400 target on February 30. Now, the index appears to have started on its next phase which should be another decline induced by intermediate cycles bottoming over the next six weeks.
Markets Showing Unconfirmed Intermediate Top
On Friday, helped by a good jobs report, the rally which started the previous day retraced exactly 50% of the forty-five-point decline before pulling back to fill the opening gap, but we moved up again into the close. Monday will be a decision day.
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