Andre Gratian | TalkMarkets | Page 9
Owner at Market Turning Points
When I was a stock broker years ago, a friend introduced me to technical analysis of the market and it is not an exaggeration to say that I fell in love with this approach! Ever since then, it has become an increasingly important part of mylife, and I frequently spend 8 or more hours per day in ...more

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Bulls Still In Charge But...
It only takes a quick glance at the daily SPX​ indicators to assess the current market position. From about 2600 the index has started to meet with more and more overhead resistance which extends all the way to 2800-2815.
Counter-Trend Extends
On the bullish side, SPX has moved beyond its initial resistance band, as well as the 50-dma. However, if this was mostly the result of short-covering, the move above 2625 is a little dubious and could be short-lived.
Market Looking Toppy
After a three-month decline of nearly 600 points, SPX was more than ready for an oversold rally. The end of the initial down-phase of an intermediate to long-term correction which is expected to last for several more months finally came at 2346.
A Market Not For The Faint-Hearted
This market is not for the faint-hearted. Daily moves of 700 points or more are becoming common place for the DJIA. But you might as well get used to it because it shows no sign of abating, and more of the same is predicted for 2019.
SPX May Have Found Bottom
There is no sign that the 2346 low is the final low of this correction and we’ll continue to monitor the weekly chart for a warning that we are getting close to the end of this correction. The estimated target for the SPX is approximately 2200.
IWM Leading Decline
On Friday, the major indexes re-tested their lows, but leading index IWM closed the week at a new low. That's a warning that the decline of SPX, already approaching 100 points, is likely not over..
Key Support Being Re-Tested
While we do not have absolute confirmation that we have started a bear market -- and won’t until we begin to decline in earnest below 2604 -- all the evidence points to massive distribution taking place in a roughly 200-point range.
Key (Short-Term) Support Holds
From last Friday’s low, SPX has already rallied about 130 points and may be ready for a consolidation before moving higher. The odds that this is the beginning of a rally which will take us to a new all-time high are slim to none.
New Low In Store?
SPX is approaching a support level just above the former low of 2604. Perhaps for this reason, or because of Thanksgiving, breadth was relatively bullish in the last couple of days. Does that mean that it will hold here before staging a good rally?
More Weakness? How Much?
Some analysts called for the final low of the correction to have occurred on 4/02, at 2554. But the 40-wk. cycle low is still ahead of us -- ideally due to bottom sometime in May, and 2) there is an unfilled valid count to 2450 on the SPX.
A Retest Of The Low?
The bulls should regain control long enough to attempt making a new all-time high before conditions begin to favor the bears, once again, as we enter the fourth quarter of the year.
A Revealing Thursday Session
Observing the market’s behavior over the past six plus weeks suggests that cyclical pressure continues to prevent a bullish reversal which could lead to new highs.Thursday’s action was particularly revealing.
Ready For A Rebound?
Several clues point to a bounce as early as Monday morning, but that does not mean that the market will heed them -- at least right away. We could extend the decline first, and then bounce.
The Bulls' Last Stand?
SPX’s performance during the past week looks like a prelude to a resumption of the correction and a retest of the low – but not before another bounce early next week.
Uptrend Resuming?
The daily indicators for SPX have returned to a buy signal, so the bulls appear to be in control for the time being and may not be inclined to give back too much ground over the short-term.
SPX At Another Crossroad
When the rally from the 2533 low overcame the previous short-term high, it suggested SPX' recovery could reach the previous top of 2872 Last week’s pullback has not altered that possibility, and next week’s activity could confirm or nullify it.
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