What you say is true. However, since we NEVER know where we will be in the future, we have to use correlations that existed in the past in order to establish what is likely to happen down the road. There are only two constants in the stock market---fear, and Treasury money flows---and both are saying that the market is likely to be higher in the medium and long-term future.

Closer to the end of the year, we think the market is going to breakout of the trading-range that it has been in since Jan 2018, and enter a new major up-leg that few see coming.

In addition, there is too much fear and expectation of a market failure. Other indicators we follow are actually showing a BOTTOMING pattern! We should have a short-term pullback in July, but it will be shallow.

Agree. What the debt is spent on is paramount. Spending that increases productivity--not just asset prices--will keep inflation (which is the only limiting factor for gov spending) at bay.

It IS interesting.

Thank you for reading and taking the time to comment

The "why" is not important. The "what" is important, and the "what" is the fact that money is being pulled out of the economy and cancelled.

$300B (net) will be removed from the economy during tax season. Unless there is massive credit creation, this will impact markets...and provide a buy-the-dip opportunity.

Glad that you found some value in our work.

Thank you.

Thanks, Alan.