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Investment Letter
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I have degrees in mathematics, science, and education from the University of Toronto. I produce a uniquely independent analysis of the markets, focusing on investor sentiment and the application of MMT. To invest, is to bet on the future and our service informs our members of which future is the ...more


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Expect Weakness In The Market - Our Models Were Right.
Taxes have been significantly higher this year compared to last, and April’s Tax-take has drained ~ $300B from the economy in just 5 days.
The Tax Season Will Combine With Other Factors To Weaken Stock Prices
Financial stress is increasing in the short-term. Inflation is rising year-on-year, causing concern among monetarists. Higher interest rates are positive for stocks.
Models That Are Predicting A Headwind For The Stock Market
A stable of proprietary models that track the S&P500 with a high correlation.
Look For The Money Source
Knowing and tracking where the money that drives the economy (and the stock market) comes from is the secret (even though it is an open secret).
If You Like The Dotcom Bull Market, You Are Going To Love The Next Few Years.
The conditions are in place for a new tech-driven bull market that will rival the 1990's dotcom bull market.
Like Amputating Your Toes To Fit Your Shoes
Rates are not going higher, inflation is not going to get materially worse, and for the next 6-9 months the economy will not collapse into recession as long as the current fund-flow net-transfer rate is maintained.
Ignore The Herd's Fear Of The Fed And Of Recession. Focus On The Fund-Flows
In this piece we remind readers that it is not rates or the Federal Reserve Bank that drives markets, but rather net fund-transfers from the Treasury that fee bull markets.
Fear And Loathing Of The Deficit
Fear of the government deficit is making spending on infrastructure difficult. Austerity murders economies and stock markets.
Similar To 2018
At the end of 2018, Trump shut down the government for a record 35 days. The lead-up to the 2018 shutdown has several parallels with the current situation.
The Government Funds The Economy, Not The Other Way Around
For the Federal Government to have a balanced budget, they would have to tax back every dollar that they spend, leaving nothing in private bank accounts.
Investor Sentiment And Stock Market Timing
The stock market 'climbs a wall-of-worry'. Sentiment is at fear-levels that correlate with market lows
The Stock Market Floats On Fund-Flows
Fund flows for August were positive, suggesting a potential muted dip in September-October compared to previous years.
Raising Interest Rates Is Not The Solution To Inflation In The Short-Term. No Recession In 2023.
The economy will remain recession-free; notwithstanding a default of the US debt.
A Technical Check-Up Of The Stock Market
The S&P 500 is bouncing off the bottom of the latest fractal trading range and is setting up to hit new highs later this year. The very short-term outlook is pointing to market weakness.
A Shot Of Liquidity
No matter what the semantic arguments are (QE, not QE, reverse QT...), the hard reality is that $400B of encumbered assets were added to the Fed's books at par, and an equal amount of unencumbered money (liquidity) was released into the economy.
Liquidity Breakout And The Resart Of QE
The Fed has suddenly ended tightening and restarted easing. The increasing liquidity in the private sector and positive net-transfers from the Treasury will support the stock market. The market is not about to collapse.
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