Investment Letter
Contributor's Links: ANG Traders

I have degrees in mathematics, science, and education from the University of Toronto. My son is a PhD candidate in computer science at Oxford University.

By combining my 40-years of market experience with my son's youthful computer science knowledge, we produce a uniquely ... more

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Why Do We Get Better At Predicting The Weather, But Not The Market?
Weather and markets are both complex systems which humans endeavor to predict. It is fair to say that meteorologists are better able to predict weather now than they could back in 1940, but the same cannot be said about market predictions.
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Like The 1990's, Only Better!
Primary bull market trends are fuelled by money. In this piece, we elucidate where this money comes from, and how today's market setup is similar to the 1990s, only better.
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Money And Smiles: The Debt Ceiling
The debt ceiling is negatively affecting the fund flows that are coming from the Treasury and the banks. If it is not raised by mid-October, the current stock market weakness will last through October.
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The National Public "Debt" And The Stock Market
Public "debt" is actually the net-transfer of funds to the private sector which then finds its way into the stock market.
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QE And Reverse Repurchase: Yin And Yang
The Fed is both easing and tightening at the same time. That is why the stock market advance has stalled. As the economy opens back to normal, the money sitting as deposits will be put to work and the stock market will rally.
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Price's Law And The Pareto Principle: Why Retail Investors Should Limit Their Day Trading
There are fundamental principles at work that lead to an unequal distribution of profits.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Where Are We In The Market?
9 months ago

Thanks for reading and saying you liked it.

Money Fund Growth And The End Of The Expansion
1 year ago

It would be unfair to our subscribers to give away too much detail, but one reason is the record low equity hedging.

In this article: SPY, DIA, QQQ, IWM
MMT Heaven And MMT Hell For Chinese Investment And U.S. Fiscal Spending
2 years ago

Thank you for the clear explanation.

Study Discovers That If The Debt Machine Was Turned Off, The U.S. Would Immediately Plunge Into A Horrifying Depression
2 years ago

"The primary cause of 70s inflation was a continuation of Fed easy money that LBJ required."

Now you switch to Nixon and the gold standard removal?

The embargo caused a shortage which caused inflation, and because energy is such a basic requirement for the economy that the shortage stopped growth in its tracks...stagflation.

Twitter Terror
2 years ago

Ignore the Tweets. That isn't what drives markets.

In this article: SPX
Study Discovers That If The Debt Machine Was Turned Off, The U.S. Would Immediately Plunge Into A Horrifying Depression
2 years ago

In 1963, Fed rate was 3.5%. By the time LBJ left Office in January 1969, it was7.1%.

So I don't know what " Fed easy money " you mean? That was serious tightening.

Study Discovers That If The Debt Machine Was Turned Off, The U.S. Would Immediately Plunge Into A Horrifying Depression
2 years ago

By-the-way, I agree with the the premise contained in the title. Without debt-money from either the private or the monetary sovereign, the world economy would cease to exist. The world economy would be reduced to local bartering.

Study Discovers That If The Debt Machine Was Turned Off, The U.S. Would Immediately Plunge Into A Horrifying Depression
2 years ago

Yes, the oil embargo was the proximal cause of the inflation. Inflation is always because of a shortage of something. And oil is a key ingredient in the economy, so a shortage of it is guaranteed to cause inflation and stagnation at the same time. When you have a shortage of such a key element, and increasing its production is impossible in the short-term, nothing, not even deficit spending is going to fill that hole. And there was no way of avoiding it either because, unlike today, at that time the US was not self-sufficient in oil which was controlled by one agent (cartel).

Study Discovers That If The Debt Machine Was Turned Off, The U.S. Would Immediately Plunge Into A Horrifying Depression
2 years ago

The point is, the Federal deficit is not the problem. It, in fact, is always the solution. In both 2001 and 2008, it was too much private deficit, not Federal deficit, and it was the latter that had to be increased in order to pull the markets out of the fire.

Note also, that Clinton reduced the Federal deficit for five-years, leading to a Federal government SURPLUS...and a private sector DEFICIT that became too inflated to be sustained. Again, the point is that Federal deficits aren't what historically cause the problems.

Study Discovers That If The Debt Machine Was Turned Off, The U.S. Would Immediately Plunge Into A Horrifying Depression
2 years ago

One HUGE flaw (many smaller ones) in your argument:

Federal government budget deficits and the "debt" that they lead to, is NOTHING like household or state budget deficits. In fact, the work "debt" is a misnomer, and should be called the Federal government "funding of the economy".

It has been increasing for 80-years, as has the size of the economy. The Federal government will never run out of dollars...unlike you, me, and local governments.

1 to 10 of 21 comments
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

APPS Digital Turbine, Inc.
BZUN Baozun Inc
IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund
JD JD.com
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
SPXL Direxion Daily S&P500 Bull 3X ETF
SPY SPDR S&P 500
UVXY PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II
VIX Volatility Index CBOE

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Latest Posts
80% Correlation With SPX Local Top
Weekly, and 10-day MA of put:call ratio corresponds to local highs in the SPX.
Hedging And Senitment.
Sentiment can go either way in the short-term.
Money Funds And Recoveries
Money funds decrease during true market recoveries.
Gold: The Early-Winter-To-Late-Summer Pattern
Gold and bond pattern.
Stocks-To-Bonds Ratio Collapse
Stocks-to-bonds ratio drops to lowest the value since December 2018.
The Tariffs Won't Happen.
The tariffs on $300B of Chinese will never be implement, just like tariffs on Mexico were never implemented.

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