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Core PCE y/y 4.7% vs. 4.3% consensus, headline 5.4% vs. 5.0%.

Figure 1: Month-on-month PCE inflation (black), Core PCE (teal), trimmed PCE (tan), and instantaneous PCE inflation, T=12,a=4 (purple). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Red dashed line at expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine. Source: BEA, NBER, author’s calculations.

Month-on-month indicators exhibit lots of volatility, even core and trimmed measures. That being said, m/m measures rose in January. The instantaneous measure (discussed in this post) rose less than the others, unsurprisingly given the weight on previous m/m changes.

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