Writer at The Technical Investor

Michael Gouvalaris is the author of The Trading Playbook: Two Rule Based Plans for Day Trading and Swing Trading. He is the author of the Technical Investor blog (formerly Mikes Trading Journal) which began in 2009 and has provided timely and accurate technical analysis of the markets and ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Market Update: Historic For All The Wrong Reasons
It’s been an historic month for all the wrong reasons. Economic activity all but grounded to a standstill due to the shutdowns and the markets succumbed to the unprecedented level of uncertainty in both economic damage and recovery time.
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Market Update: When Fundamentals No Longer Matter
Economic data continues to show improvements while investors panic over the potential effects of Covid-19. An above-average PE ratio made the market more vulnerable to an external shock such as this.
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First Correction Of 2020
We are experiencing our first correction of 2020. Investors should understand that corrections of 5%-10% occur roughly every year. We briefly turned negative for 2020, after a 30%+ gain in 2019.
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A Look Back At Valuations During Prior Bull Market Peaks
We have a PE ratio of almost 19x. The earnings yield is less than it was in 2007, but with the 10-year treasury at 1.58%, the actual equity risk premium is more than double over what it was in 2007 (3.71% versus 1.67%).
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Market Update: Data Showing Signs Of Improvement
A review of January’s economic data shows signs of improvement and optimism the expansion will continue in the near term. It’s impossible to tell how much of this is already priced into the market at almost 19X forward earnings.
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2019 Year In Review: All About Multiple Expansion
Stocks closed 2019 with their best returns since 2013. The returns equation is dividend yield plus earnings growth plus change in valuation. Let’s briefly review what happened to each of these components in 2019, and look ahead to 2020.
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Comments

Latest Comments
Should Investors Be Cautious On Short Term Bonds?
4 years ago

Thanks for reading Alexa, I appreciate that.

In this article: UST
August Lows Could Be Revisited
4 years ago

Agreed. Good news is bad and bad news is good... It's really made the job more difficult.

Financial Markets Week In Review: September 14-18
4 years ago

Thanks for the kind words! Good points, It seems as if the Fed's new policy of additional transparency has only made uncertainty (and as a result, volatility) increase. Thanks for reading.

Tough Market...
4 years ago

True. Don't forget the inevitable rising Fed Funds Rate after 6 years at 0% as well.

In this article: DJI, SPX, TNX, AGG
Why Is There A Common Perception That The Stock Market Is Rigged?
5 years ago

Hi Terry. I was thinking more in terms of the macro picture but you make an excellent point. Individual stock manipulation or front-running is a problem. Thanks for reading.

In this article: SPY
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average
QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
SPY SPDR S&P 500

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Work Experience

Investment Advisor Representative
James D. Maxon Financial Advisors LLC
2013 - Present (7 years 5 months)
Technical Analyst/Trader
Sole Proprietor
November 2007 - Present (12 years 8 months)
Series 63 and Series 65. Contributor for Investing.com Work has been featured by regular contributors to CNBC, Forbes, Business Insider and more... Some of my work: Technical analysis web site: mikestradingjournal.blogspot.com

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