Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

What Could Trump Have Possibly Meant?
The difference between end-2019Q3 equity wealth and that at end of 2016Q4 is $4 trillion (a cumulative 27% in log terms). I don’t know where the other $6 trillion Mr. Trump cites came from.
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The Trumpian World As Natural Experiment
The Trump economic policy regime (if it can be called that) has provided several “natural experiments”.
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Why Is The 2019 Slowdown Different Than The 2016 Slowdown?
Who’s going to pick up the slack this time?
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“CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2019 Update”
Here is a comparison of two-year forecasts by CBO and the Federal Reserve.
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Recession Probabilities, September-October 2020
With all the talk about possible recessions, this chart is worth a look.
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Deceleration
Over the last week, we’ve had new readings on employment, income, sales, and monthly GDP:
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

FXE Euro Currency Trust
UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
XHB SPDR S&P HMBLDRS IDX FND
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
Victory At Sea: Soybeans Heading To China (from Brazil)
Nearest month futures are about a dollar lower (at $9.34/bushel) than the nearest month futures on the day when Trump announced Section 301 action against China.
“Differences In And Consistency Of Excess Mortality Estimates In Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria”
Excess deaths in PR through year end, those recorded by the Statistics Office, numbered only 654. Most of these occurred in the last ten days of September and the whole of October.
37 Years Ago Today: “It’s Because Of You Little Motherf**kers That We’re Out Of Work!”
On this day, in 1982,at the height of the hysteria focused on competition from Japan, two unemployed auto workers chased down Vincent Chin — celebrating his bachelor’s party — and beat him to death.
45 Years Of Nominal Soybean Prices
Chart covering 45 years of nominal soybean prices.

Work Experience

Education

University of California, Berkeley
PhD
Economics

Publications