Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Business Cycle Indicators: August 3, 2020
A zero m/m GDP growth in July is consistent with Goldman Sachs's employment tracker estimate for a 1 million decline in nonfarm payroll employment.
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The Dollar’s Value Under Pressure
The dollar’s value has come under pressure recently. Does this mean the dollar’s role as a key international currency is at threat?
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Business Cycle Indicators As Of Friday
Here's a chart: reverse radical, or V-ish?
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A Reminder: The Advance Estimate Of Q2 GDP Growth Is… An Estimate
Not only is potential GDP an estimate, so too, to varying degrees, are all the GDP figures associated with each release (advance, 2nd, 3rd). It’s just that usually, the revisions are expected to be relatively small.
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If We Were To Implement A Gold Price Target, What Should The Fed Funds Rate Be?
The price of gold is 11.8% higher in July (through 20th) than in February 2020. This implies that the Fed funds rate would have to be 0.118/10.210 = 0.0115, i.e., 1.15 percentage points higher than in February 2020.
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Nowcasting Q3
Believe it or not, we’re in the 3rd quarter. As we entered mid-June, Q2 forecasts fell and Q3 forecasts stopped rising. This is linked with the pattern in Covid-19 cases and fatalities.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

FXE Euro Currency Trust
UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
XHB SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
For These Trying Times
If you despair of the administration bringing us safely through this test, then let this provide some hope.
Victory At Sea: Soybeans Heading To China (from Brazil)
Nearest month futures are about a dollar lower (at $9.34/bushel) than the nearest month futures on the day when Trump announced Section 301 action against China.
“Differences In And Consistency Of Excess Mortality Estimates In Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria”
Excess deaths in PR through year end, those recorded by the Statistics Office, numbered only 654. Most of these occurred in the last ten days of September and the whole of October.
37 Years Ago Today: “It’s Because Of You Little Motherf**kers That We’re Out Of Work!”
On this day, in 1982,at the height of the hysteria focused on competition from Japan, two unemployed auto workers chased down Vincent Chin — celebrating his bachelor’s party — and beat him to death.
45 Years Of Nominal Soybean Prices
Chart covering 45 years of nominal soybean prices.

Work Experience

Education

University of California, Berkeley
PhD
Economics

Publications