Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more


Advanced Country Headline Inflation Rates – May 2022
High inflation not just in the US.
About 40 Years Of Inflation Expectations Errors – Economists Vs. Households
During the Great Moderation, professional forecasters did better (and exhibited less upward bias) than consumers/households. That relationship might have been upset during the pandemic.
So You Think We Might Be In A Recession Today?
The Sahm Rule for determining a recession onset in real-time is based on a greater than 50bps increase in the 3-month moving average unemployment rate relative to its low in the preceding 12 months.
The Demise Of Dollar Dominance
One reason I think a concerted move from the dollar is not going to happen is because, in some ways, doing so would be taking the wrong lesson from the events of 2022.
Business Cycle Indicators - June 9, 2022
With the release of employment last Friday, we have the following picture of series followed by the NBER BCDC.
Sixty Years Of The “Misery Index”
One popular measure of economic satisfaction is the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. This index is clearly inversely related to the misery index.


FXE Euro Currency Trust
UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
XHB SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR



Latest Posts
For These Trying Times
If you despair of the administration bringing us safely through this test, then let this provide some hope.
Victory At Sea: Soybeans Heading To China (from Brazil)
Nearest month futures are about a dollar lower (at $9.34/bushel) than the nearest month futures on the day when Trump announced Section 301 action against China.
“Differences In And Consistency Of Excess Mortality Estimates In Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria”
Excess deaths in PR through year end, those recorded by the Statistics Office, numbered only 654. Most of these occurred in the last ten days of September and the whole of October.
37 Years Ago Today: “It’s Because Of You Little Motherf**kers That We’re Out Of Work!”
On this day, in 1982,at the height of the hysteria focused on competition from Japan, two unemployed auto workers chased down Vincent Chin — celebrating his bachelor’s party — and beat him to death.
45 Years Of Nominal Soybean Prices
Chart covering 45 years of nominal soybean prices.

Work Experience


University of California, Berkeley