Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more

ALL CONTRIBUTIONS

Recession Probability If The Rest Of August Is Like The First Half
If the rest of August is like the first half, then the probability of a recession in August 2020 is 47%.
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Winning: Midwest Manufacturing Employment
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin drop, as US manufacturing employment rises.
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A History Of Trade Policy Retaliation: Soybeans Edition
As the date of the resolution of the US-China trade dispute drifts further and further, it behooves us to look at what soybean futures contracts for September 2019 indicated as of Trump’s announcement of Section 301 action against China.
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Implications Of Yield Curve Flattening For The UK
The 10yr-3mo spread is not particularly informative regarding recessions (as defined by ECRI) or industrial production growth in the UK. It is informative regarding real-time GDP.
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Do Tariffs Matter? Soybean Edition
Had soybeans been perfectly fungible, then US exports would’ve been pretty flat given global exports over the previous 12 months.
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10Yr-3Mo Spread Barely Budges As 10Yr-2Yr Approaches Zero
This despite Trump’s temporary delay on additional China tariffs.
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STOCKS I FOLLOW

FXE Euro Currency Trust
UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
XHB SPDR S&P HMBLDRS IDX FND
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR

TWEETS

PERSONAL BLOG

Latest Posts
“Differences In And Consistency Of Excess Mortality Estimates In Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria”
Excess deaths in PR through year end, those recorded by the Statistics Office, numbered only 654. Most of these occurred in the last ten days of September and the whole of October.
37 Years Ago Today: “It’s Because Of You Little Motherf**kers That We’re Out Of Work!”
On this day, in 1982,at the height of the hysteria focused on competition from Japan, two unemployed auto workers chased down Vincent Chin — celebrating his bachelor’s party — and beat him to death.
45 Years Of Nominal Soybean Prices
Chart covering 45 years of nominal soybean prices.

Work Experience

Education

University of California, Berkeley
PhD
Economics

Publications