Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin
Contributor's Links: Econbrowser University of Wisconsin

Menzie David Chinn is a professor of public affairs and economics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. He, along with James Hamilton, are co-authors of Econbrowser, a weblog on current macroeconomic ... more


Lumber Prices
A one percent futures basis does not necessarily imply a one percent decline in lumber prices (as would be implied in a risk-neutral efficient markets setting). 
Five Year Inflation Breakeven, S&P500 And The Dollar
The S&P 500 dropped 1.3% on Friday; many accounts attributed the drop to Fed statements indicating an accelerated pace of rate hikes (especially Bullard’s comment), presumably in response to prospects for higher than anticipated inflation.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-June (And Retail Sales)
Industrial production continued to rise in May, and at a slightly faster pace than recorded in the previous month. Manufacturing production also provided a similar upside surprise.
A Monetarist Manifesto For The Covid-19 Era
Over the 2000-2021Q1 period, the CPI has grown about 31% faster than the GDP deflator, so that suggests a CPI inflation rate of about 34.5% for the next 1.5 to 2 years.
A Sugar High?
By Q4 of 2021, the White House is predicting output 1.2% above potential GDP as estimated by the CBO earlier this year (February).
Where To Find Business Cycle Dates For Different Economies
Here's how to find the business cycles in various economies using the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach.


FXE Euro Currency Trust
UDN PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
XHB SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF
XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR



Latest Posts
For These Trying Times
If you despair of the administration bringing us safely through this test, then let this provide some hope.
Victory At Sea: Soybeans Heading To China (from Brazil)
Nearest month futures are about a dollar lower (at $9.34/bushel) than the nearest month futures on the day when Trump announced Section 301 action against China.
“Differences In And Consistency Of Excess Mortality Estimates In Puerto Rico After Hurricane Maria”
Excess deaths in PR through year end, those recorded by the Statistics Office, numbered only 654. Most of these occurred in the last ten days of September and the whole of October.
37 Years Ago Today: “It’s Because Of You Little Motherf**kers That We’re Out Of Work!”
On this day, in 1982,at the height of the hysteria focused on competition from Japan, two unemployed auto workers chased down Vincent Chin — celebrating his bachelor’s party — and beat him to death.
45 Years Of Nominal Soybean Prices
Chart covering 45 years of nominal soybean prices.

Work Experience


University of California, Berkeley