Todd Sullivan | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Hedge Fund Manager, Owner of ValuePlays and Angel Investor
Contributor's Links: ValuePlays Rand Strategic Partners
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. ...more

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Pessimism Continues To Fall
The important economic trends continued to trend higher despite most investors expecting a recession that has not occurred and not likely to occur near term.
Construction Spending Rises
The history of construction spending since 1993 reveals that this data tends to weaken prior to recessions.
Self-Employment Falls
At some point investors pay attention to companies reporting profits and raising guidance.
It’s All About Employment
If employment is rising, then nothing is broken.
Yield Curve Remains Bullish
The history of the yield curve shows that it rises prior to rises in equity indices.
Retail Sales And Truck Tonnage Stay On Trend
Real Retail Sales and Trucking Tonnage reports continue to hold for the former and remain on trend for the latter.
It Really Is As Simple As Employment
The SP500 is well above the lows of Oct 2022 but sentiment continues to register a decent level of pessimism.
Employment, Real Personal Income, Inflation… Favorable For Higher Equity Prices
Establishment Survey reports a gain of 187,000 and the Household Survey reports a gain of 222,000. Each continues the rising trend since 2020.
Rising Yield Curve Means Rising Market
As inflation persists, rates are likely to rise as investors seek protection owning equities of companies that have the ability to pass through inflation’s costs and remain profitable.
Truck Tonnage Remains In Uptrend
Trucking Tonnage Index, a relatively volatile economic indicator, remains in a rising trend.
Nearly 1/2 Of SPR Gone
Our ability to weather a large supply disruption event dwindles daily.
Real Retail Sales Steady, Income Rises
Economic data indicate economic expansion is continuing and likely to do so for several years. This is positive for equity prices even with persistent inflation and rising interest rates.
Does The Fed Actually Set Rates?
It has long been assumed and taught that the Federal Reserve sets interest rates. It is said the Fed has a two-fold mandate to 1) maximize employment while 2) minimizing inflation.
More Upside Surprises And Upward Revisions
The Manufacturers’ New Orders for Durable Goods reported this morning adds to the series of positive economic surprises including recent months’ reports revise higher.
Economic Signs Continue To Be Positive
Manufacturer’s New Orders and Real Personal Income both reported higher numbers today.
More Good News… Truck Tonnage Rises
The June report rose 2.1% vs May with a downward revision with the net effect being a rise above the trend line.
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