Thomas Mitchell - Comments

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No Fear Of Inflation; Threat Of Deflation
8 months ago

I've always thought that there needs to be a period of deflation to wipe out inflation excess.

Can you provide examples of "bond market is shouting that a credit collapse, deflation, and economic depression are on the horizon." Would be nice to follow those indicators.

Will Covid Drive Companies To Relocate To All-Inclusive Tropical Locations? This Man Is Betting Yes.
1 year ago

You will not get away from Covid by going to Costa Rica. As of 10/15/20 they had 1,372 new cases per day (94,348 total) and rising with 25 deaths per day (1,168 total). The CDC recommends travelers avoid all nonessential international travel to Costa Rica, the Covid risk is high. Don't know what the medical facilities are in Costa Rica but as an expat you might have trouble since resources are limited.

I've been to Costa Rica in 2017 and the place is great but it's not the solution to your Covid pandemic.

Asset Price Crash Dead Ahead?
1 year ago

All things in the financial markets tend to revert to the mean. So it would be no surprise to have deflation in the near future to offset the years of inflation we have had over the past 20+ years.

In this article: GLD, TLT
What Is Trump Up To With All This Tariff Talk
2 years ago

Lawrence. I'm still waiting for a trade deal. Still no end in sight, I thought Trump said "trade wars were easy to win". Glad it is so easy, hate to see the fall out if it was hard. The Chinese may have just up the ante with the recent decision to replace all American PC's and Windows software by 2022 with Chinese technology. So much for that market by American tech companies.

What Is Trump Up To With All This Tariff Talk
2 years ago

And yet here we are 16 months later and the trade war goes on with no end in sight! Doesn't look like the media had it wrong back in 2018.

U.S. Fiscal Policy Works Against Trump’s Trade Strategy
3 years ago

The only reason we have this "military aid" is to provide influence over these countries and to provide a world wide footprint. If we withdraw from "military aid" from Japan, South Korea and Germany we will have less influence on world politics and no longer be a world power. Being a world power and setting the tone of the conversation is costly.

What Is Trump Up To With All This Tariff Talk
3 years ago

Wouldn't it be better if all Trump's showmanship was more discreet? I feel that all this bluster about tariffs is more about showing his base than achieving real results. Surely there is a better way of negotiating with our trading partners to get a fair deal.

Drawing A Bead On Inflation
4 years ago

I agree, #inflation is the evil of the masses, benefits the spenders and borrowers at the expense of the frugal and savers. But how does one protect their investment from the ravages of inflation? #Gold and #silver are not proven to be a source of wealth in inflationary times and also do not provide any income?

In this article: GLD, SLV
Oil, Gold, And The S&P 500 Short-Term And Long-Term Advice
4 years ago

You forgot to mention that in 1971 the US went off the gold standard completely and let the price of gold fluctuate. Prior to that the price of gold was fixed. That would explain the relatively flat line for gold on your 1952 - 1972 chart.

In this article: GLD, OIL, SPX
A (Very) Long History Of Real Interest Rates
4 years ago

I hate to be picky but there are a few math mistakes in the article that make me question the rigor of the analysis. The article states "The wave has a frequency of 38 years and an amplitude of 2.9%". Actually the wave has a period of 76 years. The period is measure from trough to trough not trough to peak. ( frequencies is defined a equal to 1/period and therefore meaningless in this context) and the amplitude is the measurement from the minimum to the maximum value and should be 5.8% as show on the graph.

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