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Pursuit of Truth in Finance & Economics
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How The Fed Could End The Bull Market
Thursday, March 15, 2018 7:45 PM EDT
The most important question investors need to have answered is if Powell’s hawkish lean is representative of the entire FOMC or if the Fed isn’t really considering four4 hikes this year because the other members are much more dovish than him.
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Is Price Inflation Falling?
Wednesday, March 14, 2018 6:56 PM EDT
Price inflation increased in the January CPI report and the average hourly earnings from the labor report came in hot. This combination caused economists and analysts to start making projections for inflation to trend higher in 2018.
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The Business Cycle & Fiscal Policy Timing
Tuesday, March 13, 2018 3:55 PM EDT
The unusual timing of the fiscal stimulus means there won’t be any solutions, otherwise referred to as “ammo” left to stimulate the economy once the business cycle ends and a recession begins.
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Housing Market Leverage
Monday, March 12, 2018 4:03 PM EDT
The consumer is in much better shape now than in 2007 because mortgage debt is not as big of a component for the typical consumer balance sheet.
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Monetary Policy Doesn’t Follow GDP
Friday, March 9, 2018 11:41 AM EDT
The Fed raised rates 3 times without any problems in 2017, but it is facing slight pushback from the stock market in 2018 following Powell’s announcement for the potential for four hikes.
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Savings Rate & Budgeting Trends
Thursday, March 8, 2018 12:23 PM EDT
The greatest financial advice is to avoid making emotional spending and investment decisions. The goal is to make disciplined decisions, so you can have fun in your life in a responsible manner.
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Manufacturing Cyclical Weakness Coming?
Wednesday, March 7, 2018 5:54 AM EDT
There might be some cyclical weakness coming, particularly in manufacturing, but there aren’t enough bear market signposts to signal a major decline from the recent peak in stocks in late January.
In this article: SPX
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Trade Wars: Two Sides To Every Story
Monday, March 5, 2018 2:55 PM EDT
During the presidential campaign trail, then Candidate Trump stated that he’d renegotiate trade deals to stop other countries from ripping America off.
In this article: JJU (RETIRED), SLX
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US Debt Becoming A Problem For The Dollar
Friday, March 2, 2018 4:04 AM EDT
Some analysts speculated if the Fed would try to keep rates low to support the government’s spending binge.
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Best & Worst Real Historical Returns: Where To Invest?
Thursday, March 1, 2018 4:44 AM EDT
With the first stock market correction in over a year, having occurred in early February, there were many media narratives about what caused the selloff.
In this article: VIX
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US Housing Is Becoming Unaffordable
Tuesday, February 27, 2018 3:20 PM EDT
Housing isn’t affordable for new buyers in the top 25 metro areas, but the housing market isn’t in a bubble, aside from certain areas, because home owners were properly vetted before they took out mortgages.
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10 Year US Treasury Vs Stocks: Does Historical Correlation Matter?
Tuesday, February 27, 2018 4:34 AM EDT
Re-discovering the relationship between the 10-year bond and the stock market. With bond yields skyrocketing in the 4th quarter of 2017 and the first 2 months of 2018, it’s more important now than ever to understand the relationship.
In this article: SPX
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ECB Unwind Causes Monetary Conditions To Tighten
Friday, February 23, 2018 4:27 PM EDT
In January, the ECB tapered its bond buying from €60 billion per month to €30 billion per month. Equally as important, the central bank is expected to stop its bond buying completely by September 2018.
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Gold Vs. Inflation: Not What You Expect
Friday, February 23, 2018 5:34 AM EDT
Surprisingly, one of the most contentious issues about gold and inflation isn’t where they are headed; it’s their relationship. Traditionally, it’s thought that precious metals are inflation resilient.
In this article: GLD, TIP
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Correlation/Causation With Interest Rates, Inflation, And Stocks
Thursday, February 22, 2018 12:45 PM EDT
Investors are trying to get a reading on where inflation will go in the next 12 months because it’s a key variable for forecasting asset prices and the Fed funds rate.
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Buying/Renting Home Vs. Investing In Stocks
Wednesday, February 21, 2018 6:04 AM EDT
The upward mobility is the highest in the middle of the country. It’s the lowest in the southeast. If these trends continue, the housing market will probably have low returns.
In this article: SPX
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