Lance Roberts Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Chief Investment Strategist / Chief Economist of STA Wealth Mgmt
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Lance Roberts is the Chief Investment Strategist, Chief Economist and member of the investment committee for STA Wealth Mgmt. His primary focuses are macro trends, financial, fundamental and technical analysis of the markets and equities, credit markets, ... more

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The Economy Left Millions Of Americans Behind
In 2013, the Federal Reserve began conducting a yearly “Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking,” under the catchy acronym “SHED.” It measures the economic well-being of US families and identifies possible risks.
Technically Speaking: Fed "Hopes" Spark Return Of Bullish Complacency
The current levels of complacency will end. It is only a function of when not if.
The One Lesson Investors Should Have Learned From Pension Funds
The average U.S. plan has only 72.5% of its future obligations in 2018, compared to more than 100% in 2001.
S&P 3300 – The Bull Vs. Bear Case
Almost 18 months after I originally discussed it, the market finally cleared the psychological level of 3000. That is the good news.The “not-so-good” news is the market continues to rally into a more extreme overbought condition.
Questions About The “Stellar” June Jobs Report (Which Also Confirm The Fed’s Concerns)
On Wednesday, Jerome Powell testified before Congress the U.S. economy is “suffering” from a bout of uncertainty caused by trade tensions and slow global growth.
Recession Probability Charts: Current Odds Now About 33%
The New York Fed has the odds of a recession within the next year at 33%. Some of the other models are humorous.
Technically Speaking: Monthly S&P 500 Chart Update & Review
While it is fundamental analysis derives “what” we buy, it is the long-term “price” analysis which determines the “when” we buy and sell in our portfolio management process.
Shelton, The Fed, & The Realization Of A Liquidity Trap
When the Fed, or any central bank/government, lowers or raises interest rates it directly affects the currency exchange rates between countries and, ultimately, trade.
Quick Takes: Some Things I Am Thinking About
With a majority of short-term technical indicators extremely overbought, look for a correction next week. What will be important is that any correction does not fall below the early May highs.
The Manufacturing Sector Is Rolling Over But Inventories Keep Piling Up
Factory new orders are down year-over-year and barely afloat excluding transportation. Inventories are a concern.
Technically Speaking: The Bull Is Back, Bonds Say "No"
For the fifth time, since the end of 2017, the market hit an all-time high. Each previous all-time high has led an almost immediate sell-off.
Everything You Are Being Told About Saving & Investing Is Wrong – Part 3
Investing for retirement, no matter what age you are should be done conservatively and cautiously with the goal of outpacing inflation over time.
Everything You Are Being Told About Saving & Investing Is Wrong – Part 2
There is a disconnect between the cost of living today and 30-years into the future, as well as the amount of money needed to be financially independent for the entire lifespan after retirement.
One Man’s Treasure: The Perception Versus Reality Of Equities
Stocks usually produce higher returns than other asset classes and therefore feature prominently in retirement plans. The perception stocks, however, has changed over the years, with many now viewing them as "trash" rather than "treasure."
The “Art Of The Deal” Vs. The “Art Of War”
What the headlines don’t tell you is that the “strongest June rally in the last 80 years” failed to recover the losses from one of the worst May months on record as well. In other words, most investors simply recovered previous losses.
1995 Rate Cut & The Case For The Final Leg Of The Bull Market
Market participants want to believe today’s bull market is similar to 1995.
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