Jim Boswell Blog | Two Things the "Economists" Do Not Know | TalkMarkets
Executive Director, Quanta Analytics
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Author of Globanomics. Jim has nearly fifty years of professional experience in the development of management information and analytical business decision support systems. Broadly disciplined with exceptional experience. Education includes an MBA from the Wharton School-University of Pennsylvania, ...more

Two Things the "Economists" Do Not Know

Date: Sunday, April 7, 2024 12:06 PM EST

Recently, i received what i considered a "mild criticism" of my blog, saying that maybe my writings would draw more attention if i would simply stay within the "mainstream" of what Talkmarkets is supposed to be.

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Are you kidding me?  If my writings are outside of the "mainstream boundaries" of Talkmarkets, please, please, please tell me how that could be.

Everything i talk about relates to the world economy.  Everything.  

So, if i am out of the mainstream talking in terms of the "global economy" then "burn me at the stake"!

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Now, on to the subject at hand--the two things that the "economists" don't know.

  1. the Standard Business Growth Curve--taught in every core business program, graduate and undergraduate.
  2. the fact that China's Business Growth Curve has plateaued.

I will now explain both to all of you "economists".

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The Standard Business Growth Curve if you plotted it on a graph would take the form of an elongated "s"--more of a horizontal s than a vertical s, if you know what i mean.

But just to make sure, you get that elongated s picture in your mind.  Think about a line starting out at zero on a graph then it begins to move up slowly at first, but then hits a point where the growth starts looking almost "exponential" in nature (although it is not).  But at some point while the graph is moving up rapidly, the rate of growth starts falling down, and the graph line starts bending more horizontally than vertically, until the line reaches a plateau at which it will stay.

Why does the standard business growth curve look like that?  It is intuitive.  At first, no one knows about your product, essentially meaning there is yet a market for that product.  Then you sell one, the word speads, you sell two more, the word sperads, etc. etc. (and every time the word spreads your market expands).   The things is there does come a point where you have "saturated the market place that is interested or knows about your product").

That's it.  That's all there is to know about the Standard Business Curve.  Now, let me say this is the simplistic view because all business know about the standard business curves, and they are always looking for ways to beat it by "opening up new markets never before touched", "branch out with an entirely new business concept or adventure", etc.).

But one thing is this.  The bigger you are, the harder it is to completely avoid the standard business growth curve.

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Now with the above said, i think is important for the "economists", including the main economist at the Treasury, to understand that China has plateaued on their particular standard business growth curve, while the standard business growth curve has continued to grow for the United States of America.

Any good businessperson will tell you that it is not easy, and in the long run impossible, to beat the standard business growth curve.  So, if i was sending representatives over to China to help them in the current situation, i think i would send a few of my best business elites to advice them on the kind of alternatives that they could try.

I could go into what some of those alternatives are, but i am not testing my business prowess at the moment and i don't want to spend the time right now.  Just the same, some of the basics include--develop new products, widen your markets for existing products, etc.).  You just have to remember, however, that China's reputation has suffered greatly lately, which somewhat reduces the things that they can do all on their own. 

In other words, China needs help. 

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I have some faith in Janet Yellen (hoping her economic background has not stymied her clarity).  I just hope she is looking more at the daily happenings on the EGSB than she is waiting around for gdp numbers every month.

 

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Susan Miller 8 months ago Member's comment

That wasn't criticism at all, it was just an observation.

Jim Boswell 8 months ago Author's comment

I took it mildly without offense.  You probably did not know that i have been banned from writing articles for Talkmarkets because of my bad writing habits.