Jim Boswell Blog | The COVID-19 Death Count From An Inappropriate Red-Blue State Perspective | TalkMarkets
Executive Director, Quanta Analytics
Contributor's Links: Globanomics
Author of Globanomics. Jim has nearly fifty years of professional experience in the development of management information and analytical business decision support systems. Broadly disciplined with exceptional experience. Education includes an MBA from the Wharton School-University of Pennsylvania, ...more

The COVID-19 Death Count From An Inappropriate Red-Blue State Perspective

Date: Friday, September 18, 2020 5:42 AM EDT

Although we are called the United States of America, many people—including the President of the United States of America—seem to view our country through the prism that divides us into red and blue states. 

From my perspective that is an inappropriate simplification that is detrimental to our fine nation.  Even in the extreme most of the so-called blue states include 40% red voters and most of the so-called red states include 40% blue voters. 

Paraphrasing one great President, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.  I believe the country cannot survive half red and half blue.  I do not expect the Union to be dissolved.  I do not expect the house to fall, but I do believe it must cease to be divided red and blue.” 

Red or blue, right or left, conservative or liberal—these terms tend to put one extreme against another extreme.  What about everything in between these extremes?  Even terms like Republican or Democrat are less polar than those I have just mentioned.  Why don’t we just stick with those.  Red states are not red; they are states that simply lean more to the Republican perspective.  Blue states are not blue; they are states that simply lean more to the Democrat perspective.

Let us take the coronavirus pandemic for example.  President Trump recently claimed that the so-called blue states of the United States of America were performing more poorly than the so-called red states of the United States of America, as though it made a difference. 

We will get to the actual and forecasted numbers shortly, but before we do I have to ask this question. 

What kind of leader speaks in these terms?  Did Roosevelt, Truman, Johnson, Nixon, or Bush ever consider measuring red and blue state performance and/or contribution by counting soldier deaths by the soldier’s state of origin? 

I think not. 

The “suckers” (President Trump’s words not mine) that died for their country in World War II, Korea, Viet Nam, and in the Middle East were not red state or blue state soldiers, they were American soldiers.

The same holds true today with the COVID-19 death count.  Every COVID-19 death in the United States is an American death, not a casualty of their red state or blue state performance.

Now regardless of all the above, I will show you the numbers per our current leader’s perspective.  The following graph shows the COVID-19 death count to date by red states and blue states.  In my analysis, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are all considered “blue” states.  The total population of the so-called red states in this analysis is 166.8 million and the total population of the blue states is 164.5 million.

 The above graph clearly shows that to date more “blue state Americans” have died as a result of the COVID-19 virus than “red state Americans”.  The graph also shows that the death gap between the blue states and red states is narrowing.  In total, the graph accounts for the death of nearly 200,000 Americans, making the red, white and blue a world leader regardless of the make-up of its states.

The next graph takes the recent death trend (i.e., from July 1 thru Sep 16) and projects it forward thru February 28, 2021.

The above graph speaks to the point that I am trying to make with this article.  Projecting the current trend forward, around the first of the year 2021, the COVID-19 death count will be essentially the same for both red states and blue states.  After the beginning of the year—using President Trump’s way of thinking—the red states will be underperforming the blue states.

The sad thing is that it does not matter, red or blue.  Our numbers already make us world leaders and if we continue our current path we will lose another 150,000 Americans by February 28, 2020 on top of the 200,000 Americans we have already lost.

I can only hope neither you or I; red or blue; black, brown or white account for one of those numbers.  Although I am afraid to say it--many Americans, if not one of us, are going to be.

I would like to add in conclusion that i speak as a Cold War, Viet Nam era veteran, who used that experience to gain his way into the University of Pennsylvania to earn his M.B.A. degree from the Wharton School the hard way. 

Until the next time, stay safe, and try to think in more neutral or magenta (the mixture of red and blue) terms as you move forward.  United we stand.  Divided we fall.

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