About three-weeks ago, I started tracking the “daily” statistics for the coronavirus pandemic by country and by U.S. states.  Every couple of days I send the results of my analysis out to several friends and colleagues of mine.  Most of those on the receiving end of my emails think of me as somewhat of a very good analyst (e.g., mathematics major; Wharton M.B.A.; nuclear engineer, etc.), so i think it is worthwhile for them to get my opinion.

Because of the importance of the subject and its relative importance to the upcoming election in November, I thought I would share with my followers the comments that I sent along with my email updates to my friends and colleagues this morning.  

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Dear Friends and Colleagues: As far as my own analysis, this is what I see.

1.  The U.S. adjusted for population is "not good", but it will end up being better than several European countries--and new leader will probably try to point that out next election.

2.  The U.S. numbers are a little harder to interpret right now.  The last couple of days were much higher than what you would have earlier expected about 3-4 days ago.  You can see by graph 2, why I might have made by "lower" estimates.  At that time I thought we had reached the peak to our normal curve.  But now, it is beginning to look like the peak will be higher than what we would have expected a couple of days ago.  I think you can see what I mean by just looking at the graphs.

3.  Nevertheless, there are still many reasons to be optimistic with numbers below 100,000 or 80,000.   New leader will also be pointing this out next election.  Under 100,000 is way below any extimates of 2.2 million, and 100,000- 250,000 range.

4. Now to counter new leader's claims, the democrats need to argue that those are "new leaders" deaths, not America's deaths.  America did what it was supposed to do--shelter in place.  And because America did that, our numbers were lower than one would have generally predicted.  America did its job.  New leader did not do his.

5. And that is a winning argument.  Deaths are people.  And we had more deaths from this pandemic than we did in any recent wars under a number of different Presidents (democratic or republican).  New leader is insensitive to people; it is simply is not in new leader's DNA to be sensitive to people.  And if the Democrats cannot beat new leader using that argument and new leader's insensitiveness, then they probably should just go home and put their head between their legs.

And simply from the first couple of graphs I am sending you in my PowerPoint file, you can glean all the above.  That is why people look at data in the first place--in order to try to see things faster and better than you otherwise would

Let me know if you have any thoughts or questions.

Now stay in and have a good day.