Jim Boswell Blog | Be Careful Interpreting Polls | TalkMarkets
Executive Director, Quanta Analytics
Contributor's Links: Globanomics
Author of Globanomics. Jim has nearly fifty years of professional experience in the development of management information and analytical business decision support systems. Broadly disciplined with exceptional experience. Education includes an MBA from the Wharton School-University of Pennsylvania, ...more

Be Careful Interpreting Polls

Date: Thursday, August 24, 2023 6:32 AM EST

I have always been leery of polls that tell us how people feel about a subject.  And my problem is generally not with the people polled but with the way polling questions are asked.

For example, it totally befuddles me how the polls say that 70% of the people think America is going in the wrong direction.  Really?  Seventy percent?

Okay, let's think on that poll.  And here are my thoughts on the matter.

1.  Half of that 70% are "el Trumpo's" cult who think the United States is going to hell in a handbasket.  The other half of that 70% are those who fear that "el Trumpo's" group is threatening the United States.  And then you have 30% that ignore the politics and simply believe the United States is moving in the right direction.

So what does that tell you about how people feel about the direction the country is taken.  Not much at all, really.  

Most people think when you are talking about the direction the country is taking that you are talking about things like the "economy" and how the United States is fairing, but that is not the question that was asked.  The question that was asked did not mention the economy.  It simply asked if the country was moving in the right direction.

Yet, a poll like this is used against the current party in control because it hints that people are discouraged about the direction the party in control is taking us.  But that is not necessarily, what the poll is telling us.  Just the same, about every two weeks, we get another poll asking the people of America if the United States is moving in the right direction.  And guess what?   

Seventy percent!  35% who think the country is going to hell in a handbasket and another 35% that are so frightened of the 35% that think that way, that they too wonder if the country isn't moving in the wrong direction.

Don't you just love it!

I cannot wait until the next poll comes out.

Seventy percent?

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Barry Glassman 1 year ago Member's comment

Did you watch the first GOP debate? What did you think?

Jim Boswell 1 year ago Author's comment

I just wrote a short "post" relating to your question--as my initial reaction.  I did not watch the debate.  I have it taped, but i have watched some of the "highlights" on morning television.  Personally, i think Fox controlled the debate enough to make "el Trumpo" the winner.

Barry Glassman 1 year ago Member's comment

I didn't have a chance to watch yet either, but I read that Vivek Ramaswamy was the defacto winner, but that he served as a proxy for Trump.  I heard DeSantis came out the loser, or at least did nothing to help himself.