James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 1
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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Guesstimating The Level Of Froth In US Stocks
Calling tops and bottoms in the stock market is the Holy Grail for investing analytics.
Disinflation Expected To Resume In April CPI Report
US consumer inflation data was surprisingly firm in March, raising the stakes for tomorrow’s April report.
Commodities And Stocks Are Driving Investment Returns In 2024
April was a rough month for global markets, but commodities and stocks are still the performance leaders for the major asset classes this year, based on a set of ETFs.
Emerging Markets Corporates Are Upside Outlier For Global Bonds
Foreign fixed-income markets from a US investor perspective have been an unappealing asset class lately, with a glaring exception: corporate bonds in emerging markets.
US Labor Market Cycle Has Peaked; Will Recession Soon Follow?
There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed. Context in the form of reviewing a wide variety of metrics is essential for minimizing noise.
Will Housing Inflation Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer?
Housing is among the most interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy. It’s also one of the most cyclical and crucial inputs for the business cycle.
Communications, Energy Are 2024’s Sector Leaders For US Stocks
The upside momentum in the US stock market so far this year continues to be led by rallies in communications services and energy shares.
Was April’s Correction Noise Or Signal For Global Markets?
April was a rough month for investors, but the rebound in asset prices in the early days of May has revived expectations that the worst has passed.
Will US Economy Stabilize In Q2 After Two Quarterly Downshifts?
Preliminary estimates of second-quarter US GDP activity suggest output may stabilize after two straight quarters of slower growth. This estimate should be viewed cautiously this early in the current quarter.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - Thursday, May 2
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged higher for a third straight month in April.
U.S. Recession Warning Via States Economies Was A False Alarm
U.S. recession risk remains low at the moment, based on the newsletter’s primary indicator, which aggregates several business-cycle metrics.
Momentum Retains Solid Lead For 2024 Equity Factor Returns
The momentum factor is on track to end April as it began: the strongest year-to-date performer among US equity factors
Is The Hot Inflation Data In Q1 Noise Or Signal?
Yesterday’s first-quarter GDP report delivered a one-two punch for markets: slower-than-expected growth and hotter-than-expected inflation. In reaction, stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose.
Does Reflation Risk Threaten The Risk-On Signal For Stocks?
Animal spirits have come off the boil lately, but these are still early days for deciding if risk-on sentiment for equities has hit a wall or is in a holding pattern that allows markets to consolidate the gains of late.
US Q1 GDP Growth Looks Set For Slowdown In Thursday’s Release
The US economy appears on track to post softer growth in the first-quarter GDP report scheduled for release on Thursday.
Will Commodities Continue To Outperform In 2024?
While commodities are the year’s big winner, there’s still room for debate on whether the latest move is more than a bounce within a trading range.
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