James Picerno | TalkMarkets | Page 3
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator
James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ...more

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Looking Ahead To US Economic Data For February
Recent economic data has again raised doubts about the timing for the arrival of a dovish policy bias.
Will AI Compensate For A Low Expected Equity Risk Premium?
The surge in demand for Nvidia’s computer chips for artificial intelligence applications inspires some observers to claim that a new era for the economy is dawning.
The US Leading Economic Index Takes One For The Team
The once-reliable US Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been signaling a US recession for more than a year but the economy has continued to expand.
Markets Continue To Price In Path For Rate Cuts In 2024
The latest inflation data is sticky, but the markets have only delayed rather than canceled expectations that the Federal Reserve will start trimming interest rates in the near future.
Estimating US Recession Risk Using Economic Data For States
Tracking each state economy separately, and then aggregating the results, provides a different spin on the US business cycle compared with national indicators.
Moderate Slowdown Expected For US Q1 GDP Growth
Growth remains on track to soften in the first quarter, based on the median GDP nowcast for a set of estimates.
The Sloppy Dance Between The US 10-Year Yield And Inflation
Inflation and Treasury yields move together to a degree, but they’re hardly joined at the hip in the short term.
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate - Wednesday, Feb. 14
The US 10-year Treasury yield spiked yesterday following the release of hotter-than-expected consumer inflation data in January.
High Yield Bonds In Emerging Markets: 2024’s Upside Outliers
Much of the global bond market is struggling this year, with a conspicuous exception: below-investment-grade bonds issued by companies in emerging markets.
Mixed Start For US Bonds So Far In 2024
Modest gains in some corners of fixed income contrast with sharp losses elsewhere for year-to-date results with the broadly defined US bond market, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close.
Interest Rates Are Still Biggest Short-Term Risk
It’s hardly the first time that the sharp rise in interest rates over the previous two years has prompted warnings about the business cycle outlook from an economist.
US Stocks Remain Upside Outlier For Major Asset Classes In 2024
It’s lonely at the top. American shares are posting strong year-to-date results in 2024.
US Treasury Market Misjudges Timing On First Rate Cut… Again
We’ve been here before. In the spring of 2023, the bond market rallied sharply, effectively forecasting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
American Stocks Continue To Lead Global Equities Ex-US In 2024
Betting on the demise of the long-running leadership of US shares over foreign markets has been a losing proposition for some time and the early going in 2024 suggests the trend persists.
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - Friday, Feb. 2
The long-term return forecast for the Global Market Index continued to ease in January, dipping to an annualized 6.6% total return.
Major Asset Classes January 2024 Performance Review
Global markets were mixed in January following a strong finish in 2023 that lifted nearly all corners.
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