James Picerno Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator

James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ... more

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US Business Cycle Risk Report - Friday, Jan. 18
The odds are still low that a new US recession has started, but economic momentum continues to slow. The headwinds remain moderate so far, but the potential for trouble later in the year is rising, in part due to the partial government shutdown.
Will Shutdown Risk End This Year’s Equity Sector Rallies?
The partial government shutdown could be a slow-moving train wreck for the US economy, but for the moment the crowd’s inclined to reprice the major equity sectors higher in the new year following 2018’s haircut.
The Shutdown Begins To Weigh On The Economic Outlook
Will the US government’s stalemate over budget negotiations trigger a recession? In “normal” times this question would be dismissed as absurd. But the times they are a changin’.
US GDP Growth Remains Set For Moderate Slowdown In Q4
Economic output is still on track to decelerate to a moderately slower pace in the government’s fourth-quarter report on gross domestic product (GDP) due later this month.
US Real Estate Investment Trusts Topped Last Week’s Gains
The biggest current drawdown is still held by broadly defined commodities. The iPath Bloomberg Commodity (DJP) has shed more than 50% from its previous peak.
EC It’s Been A Good Year So Far
Seven trading days don’t tell us much about price trends, but if we plead temporary insanity and restrict our view of performance to the 2019 calendar the numbers look encouraging.
Will The Consumer Inflation Trend Ease In December?
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s monetary meeting in December reveal a tolerance among policymakers for delaying additional interest-rate hikes. Low and stable inflation is a factor in the dovish message.
Fed Funds Futures Pricing In A Pause In Rate Hikes For 2019
The Federal Reserve’s recent run of raising interest rates is expected to hit a wall in 2019, according to Fed funds futures.
Ranking The Current US Stock Market Drawdown Vs. History
It’s anyone’s guess if the recent rebound in US equities will soon push the S&P 500 Index to a new high. What we do know is that the market has staged a solid bounce so far.
Most Asset Classes Rebounded Last Week
With the exception of US real estate investment trusts (REITs), all the major asset classes ended the trading week on January 4 with gains.
US Private-Sector Hiring Rose Sharply In December
Companies dramatically increased hiring in December. Private payrolls rose 301,000 last month.
Moderately Slower Growth Rate Expected For US GDP In Q4
The US expansion remains on track for a moderate deceleration in fourth-quarter GDP growth.
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes, Thursday, January 3
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) fell to an annualized 4.2% in December, moderately below the 4.6% estimate in the previous month.
Major Asset Classes | December 2018 | Performance Review
Nearly every corner of the financial and commodity markets stumbled in 2018.
Stocks Led Last Week’s Rebound For Most Asset Classes
Led by the US equities, stock markets around the world posted solid advances during the trading week ended Dec. 28, based on a set of exchange-traded products.
Low Volatility Stocks Post The Only 2018 Gain For US Equity Factors
And then there was one. With just two trading sessions left for 2018, low volatility is alone for posting a year-to-date gain among the major US equity factors, based on a set of ETFs.
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