James Picerno Blog | Talkmarkets | Page 1
Editor at The ETF Asset Class Performance Review
Contributor's Links: The Capital Spectator

James Picerno is a veteran financial journalist and has been writing about portfolio strategies, investment products, and macroeconomics since the early 1990s at Bloomberg, Dow Jones and other media groups before becoming an independent writer/analyst/consultant in 2008. He’s currently ... more

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Global Markets Continued To Rebound Last Week
Nearly all the major asset classes posted gains in the trading week through Friday, Aug. 12, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Peak Inflation Watch
There are hints that inflation has peaked, but it’s still premature to assume that the worst has passed.
10-Year Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate - Thursday, Aug. 11
The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade below its recent peak. Yesterday’s softer-than-expected rise in consumer inflation for July supports a case for expecting the 10-year rate to stay below 3% for the near term.
Modest Rebound Expected For US Q3 GDP
US GDP is projected to increase 0.6% in the July-through-September period, based on a real (inflation-adjusted) seasonally adjusted annual rate. If accurate, the rise marks the first increase this year.
U.S. Stocks Led Markets Last Week As Commodities Tanked
American shares rose for a third straight week in trading through Friday’s close (Aug. 5), posting the leading performance for the major asset classes, based on a set of ETFs.
Book Bits: Four Recent Books, Examining Threats To Economies
From smart folks at colleges to smart machines, four authors examine ways in which traditional modes are being undermined and reinvented.
High Dividend Yield And Value Are 2022’s Top US Equity Factors
The stock market is showing some bounce lately, but on a year-to-date basis red ink still dominates.
US Personal Income Barely Recovered In The Economic Expansion
US economic growth is slipping and a new recession may be near. If the current expansion ends at some point in the near future (assuming it’s still alive), the “recovery” in personal income will be the weakest by far among business cycles since 1970.
August Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes
The long-term expected return for the Global Market Index remains moderately below the index’s trailing realized 10-year performance through July, based on the average of three forecasting models.
Major Asset Classes July 2022 Performance Review
The majority of the major asset classes rebounded in July, providing relief from an extended run of red ink, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
Book Bits: Heroes And Villains
Five new books focus on identifying heroes - suppliers; women economists; rebels in Silicon Valley - and potential villains, from China to economists.
Arguing Over Recession Definitions
We can’t dismiss the possibility that a recession has arrived, but there’s still a case for debate. That debate will give way to something approximating full clarity in the weeks ahead.
Peak Inflation Watch - Thursday, July 28
The inflation battle continues. The Federal Reserve yesterday raised interest rates by a hefty 75 basis points, again, in a renewed effort to tame inflation’s recent surge. The key question: When will we start to see results?
Energy Holds On To Hefty Lead For US Equity Sectors In 2022
Energy stocks have stumbled in recent weeks, but this sector is showing signs of regaining its mojo. It could be noise or even a last gasp after an extraordinary bull run.
Is There A Case For A Return Of Disinflation/Deflation?
It’s all about high inflation at the moment. The Federal Reserve is certainly focused on inflation risk and is set to raise interest rates again in tomorrow’s policy announcement.
Across-The-Board Rebounds For Major Asset Classes Last Week
For one week, global markets delivered something other than gloom via a uniform rise in prices for the major asset classes over the trading week through Friday, July 22.
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