David Kotok | TalkMarkets | Page 12
Chairman and CIO, Cumberland Advisors
Contributor's Links: Cumberland Advisors
David R. Kotok co-founded Cumberland Advisors in 1973 and has been its Chief Investment Officer since inception. He holds a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, an M.S. in organizational dynamics from The School of Arts ...more

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Vexed By VIX? Ask Pravit Chintawongvanich
Many market agents seem vexed by the VIX. Their recent lessons include a dramatic spiking of volatility, the reactionary pricing of an exchange-traded note (ETN), some forced liquidation, and a blisteringly fast correction in stock prices.
Eurozone Economy Robust Despite Equity Market Correction
Eurozone equity markets have declined in step with global markets in a widely expected market correction. While there has been some recovery in the first two days of this week, it is not yet clear that the correction has run its course.
Piggy Bank
One of the characteristics of a struggling republic is the inability to separate its central bank’s resources from the fiscal largesse of the federal government.
Politics Threatens The Fed
Political shenanigans and influence pose a continuing threat to central bank independence, and the outlook in the US is worsening for the Fed’s independence. Is that adding to market volatility?
Bond Market Hiccup
The bond markets have experienced a hiccup in the first part of this year, with the 10-year bond rising 45 basis points in yield, to 2.85% from 2.40%, and the 30-year bond rising 37 basis points in yield, to 3.11% from 2.74%.
Market Violence & Interest Rates
Fierce forces at work on interest rates… or are we just seeing a mild adjustment? There is no way to know. We are referring to US Treasury interest rates on bills, notes, and bonds.
Inflation And The Fed
There is not a great reason for the inflation target to be precisely 2%. The Fed’s mandate is ‘price stability.’ If ‘price stability’ has to be translated into a number, one might pick 0%, rather than 2%.
Trade, Dollar, Trump
Is it any wonder that markets have been whipsawed by this mixed message about the world’s reserve currency from the president and the Treasury secretary of the United States?
Potential Fed Vice Chairman
Reports are that John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, has been targeted as a potential candidate for Fed vice chairman.
Value Vs. Equal Investing: It’s More Than Just That Month
The US stock market had a marvelous year in 2017. The major benchmark S&P 500 returned 21.60% including dividends.
S&P 500 Index To Reach 3000?
We think that stocks in the US market will be fully valued when the S&P 500 Index hits the 3000 mark by the end of this decade.
December 2017 FOMC Minutes
After a boilerplate description of the “Summary of Economic Projections,” the discussion in the meeting turned to how the participants viewed the economy.
Q4 2017- Taxes, Pensions, Ratings
The fourth quarter was dominated by tax reform and its effects on the supply and pricing of municipal bonds. The prospect that one of President Trump’s major initiatives would finally be passed by year-end buoyed the stock market.
Puerto Rico – Fourth Quarter 2017 Review
Puerto Rico's insured debt has been driven to higher yields because of uncertainty and tax-loss selling pressure.
Tactical Trend, Q4 2017
Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy.
Welcome To 2018 - Bullish In The Near Term
Once the transitional shock of year-end is absorbed, we think the tax bill will raise the valuation of US stocks. Longer-term risks remain and are serious.
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